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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Replacement Models On Determine the Optimal Time to Replacement
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Abstract:-

            The approach maintenance and replacement one of techniques of operations research whom cares of the failure experienced by a lot of production lines which consist of a set of machines and equipment, which in turn exposed to the failure or work stoppages over the lifetime, which requires reducing the working time of these machines or equipment below what can or conuct  maintenance process once in a while or a replacement for one part of the machine or replace one of the machines in production lines. In this research is the study of the failure s that occur in some parts of one of the machines for the General Company for Vege

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
THE MACROECONOMIC ENVIRANMENT OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY IN IRAQ AND ITS FUTURE PROSPECTS
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Food industries are variety to include number of agricultural products (plantbotential and animal) which can be manufactured locally, thus, Iraqi market is full by different types of food products from neighbor countries, because of un equivalence and inability of competence, in away to cover (90%) average of local request need under commercial  opening.

In Iraq although its importance, this industry suffers from difficulties, the most important one is the rising  in  products costs, shortage in agricultural products, experience, and qualification, besides, the challenges , by flooding market in food products and what are contained of higher competitive features from quality and prices side

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Multivariate GARCH Models CCC (Constant Conditional Correlation) and DCC(Dynamic Conditional Correlation) To Forecast Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate in Dollar
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Abstract

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three  financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera  , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using game theory models to determine the profit maximization policies for PepsiCo and Coca Cola in Baghdad
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(Use of models of game theory in determining the policies to maximize profits for the Pepsi Cola and Coca-Cola in the province of Baghdad)

Due to the importance of the theory of games especially theories of oligopoly in the study of the reality of competition among companies or governments and others the researcher linked theories of oligopoly to Econometrics to include all the policies used by companies after these theories were based on price and quantity only the researcher applied these theories to data taken from Pepsi Cola and Coca-Cola In Baghdad Steps of the solution where stated for the models proposed and solutions where found to be balance points is for the two companies according to the princi

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 08 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Building a Management System to Control the Construction Claims in Iraq
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The paper deals with claims in construction projects in Iraq and studies their types, causes, impacts, resolution methods and then proposes a management system to control the impacts of claims. Two parts have been done to achieve the research objective (theoretical part and practical part). The findings showed that the main types of the claims are extra work claims, different site condition claims, delay claims and the main causes of the claims are variation of the orders, design errors and omission, delay in payments by owner, variation in quantities and scheduling errors. The claims have bad impacts on the cost by increasing (10% to 25%) and also on the duration of the project by increasing from (25% to 50%).The negotiation is the main

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Future Visions and its Relationship with Illegal Immigration among Next to Graduation Students
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The current study was concerned to address these gaps in literature by identifying: first level and type of future visions among the next graduation student, second level and type of future visions among the sample according to gender (Male- Female), third level of the illegal immigration among the sample, fourth level of the illegal immigration according to gender (Male, Female), and finally the relationship between future visions and illegal immigration. To achieve the aims of the current study, the researchers created a questionnaire for the future visions. The psychometric properties (e.g. face validity, structure validity, and reliability) were tested. Base on the current sample, results showed that the questionnaire had sound psych

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Sciences
The Mandate of the Constitutional Judiciary to Guarantee the Future Ownership
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تكفل الدساتير الملكية العامة للمواطنين جميعاً (1)، كما تصون الملكية الخاصة (2)، والملاحظ بجلاء أن الدستور في اطار حمايته للملكية العامة والخاصة يطلقهما دون مقيد، ويعممهما دون مخصص، ومؤداه أن الأصل هو ضمان الملكية بنطاقها الشخصي والموضوعي المطلق أما الاستثناء عليهما يستوجب التصريح ولا تغني الدلالة أو التأويل دون نص مخصص أو مقيد يرد في الدستور، مما يتطلب من القضاء الدستوري أن يبسط ولايته على حماية

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 05 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The Future of Palestinian identity under occupation and resistance
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Summary

The conflict between Arab and Zionist movement before 1948 was not normal dispute about certain issue or quarrel on borders, it is comprehensive conflict, this research intraduce analytical and outlook future reading about Palestine identity in time of occupation and resistance in the first studying we take the concept of identity and the fundamental relationship identity history and geography. Our research treated the contents of palest Iain and Isralian identsunder. The political, cultural and military conflict between Israil and Palestine. The research introduce analytic study of research introduce analytic study of intellectual orientation of Zionist state in order to determine the exact meaning of this identity, beca

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 13 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Regression Analysis Models to Predict the 28 -day Compressive Strength Using Accelerated Curing Tests
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Regression analysis models are adopted by using SPSS program to predict the 28-day compressive strength as dependent variable and the accelerated compressive strength as independent variable. Three accelerated curing method was adopted, warm water (35ºC) and autogenous according to ASTM C C684-99 and the British method (55ºC) according to BS1881: Part 112:1983. The experimental concrete mix design was according to ACI 211.1. Twenty eight concrete mixes with slump rang (25-50) mm and (75-100)mm for rounded and crushed coarse aggregate with cement content (585, 512, 455, 410, 372 and 341)Kg/m3.

      The experimental results showed that the acc

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Detailed feasibility study of the pre-cast reinforced concrete project and its importance in the construction of Iraq
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Purpose:  Providing practical knowledge of the requirements of a detailed feasibility study for selecting the investment project.

Findings:  Directing the private sector towards investing in productive projects - the pre-cast reinforced concrete project - as it achieves a financial return as well as providing Providing foreign currencies by reducing imports and exploiting available natural resources

Practical implications: The importance of a detailed feasibility study to determining whether the project can be implemented or not.

The precast concrete method is one of the best modern c

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