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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Liquidity Indicators to Assess its Risks and Enhance Capital Adequacy in Banking Activity
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This purpose of the research is to test liquidity ratios to assess bank liquidity risks represented by liquidity ratios (current assets / current liabilities, current assets / total deposits, current assets / total assets, cash credit / total deposits, liquidity coverage ratio LCR, net stable financing ratio NSFR). This research involves evaluating these risks in banks via these ratios, and reveal the most important means used to solve these risks, including the capital adequacy ratio under the Basel II decisions and for selected period (2017-2019).The research reached the most important conclusion, which is the bank sample did not fall into bank liquidity risks throughout the years of research. Tracking specific ratio with adequ

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Integrative analysis of the value & supply chains and its impact in supporting customer value An application study in Southern Cement Company - Kufa Cement Plant
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Abstract\

The value chain analysis is main tools to achieve effective and efficient cost management; it requires a depth and comprehensive understanding for all internal and external activities associated with creating value.  Supply chain as apart of value chain, that means managing it in active and efficient can achieve great results when adopting a comprehensive and integrated performance for these two chains activities. The research aims to identify possible ways to integrate the performance of value and supply chains of the sample" Kufa-cement plant" and determine the effect of this integration in enhancing customer value. The research arrival that logical and integrated analysis of value and supply chains helps

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL&EFFICIENT PRODUCTION PLANS IN GREENHOUSES IN ASSOCIATION OF AL-WATAN UNDER CONDITION OF RISK &UNCERTAINTY
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 The objectives of this research are to determine and find out the reality of crops structure of greenhouses in association of Al-Watan  in order to stand on the optimal use of economic resources available for the purpose of reaching a crop structure optimization of the farm that achieves maximize profit and gross and net farm incomes , using the method of linear programming to choose the farm optimal plan with the highest net income , as well as identifying production plans farm efficient with (income - deviation) optimal (E-A) of the Association and derived, which takes into account the margin risk wich derived from each plan using the model( MOTAD), as a model of models of linear programming alternative programming m

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Development and Assessment of Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network Models to Predict Sunshine Duration
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         The duration of sunshine is one of the important indicators and one of the variables for measuring the amount of solar radiation collected in a particular area. Duration of solar brightness has been used to study atmospheric energy balance, sustainable development, ecosystem evolution and climate change. Predicting the average values of sunshine duration (SD) for Duhok city, Iraq on a daily basis using the approach of artificial neural network (ANN) is the focus of this paper. Many different ANN models with different input variables were used in the prediction processes. The daily average of the month, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, cloud level and atmosp

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare to the conditional logistic regression models with fixed and mixed effects for longitudinal data
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Mixed-effects conditional logistic regression is evidently more effective in the study of qualitative differences in longitudinal pollution data as well as their implications on heterogeneous subgroups. This study seeks that conditional logistic regression is a robust evaluation method for environmental studies, thru the analysis of environment pollution as a function of oil production and environmental factors. Consequently, it has been established theoretically that the primary objective of model selection in this research is to identify the candidate model that is optimal for the conditional design. The candidate model should achieve generalizability, goodness-of-fit, parsimony and establish equilibrium between bias and variab

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Models of measurement and disclosure of fair value accounting - Applied to contribute to company garments mixed
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The research aims to provide a method to measure the fair value of the most environmentally friendly of Iraq and through the application of method of measuring the fair value of the company garments contribute to mixed as the company is of the economic units of the industrial sector and included in the Iraqi market for securities as a profit and distributes profits to shareholders since the method of measurement of the fair value based on the divided profits as toxic in a deduction of Cash Dividends cash for measuring fair value, and will also be in this research to clarify the disclosure of accounting for fair value and choose the method of disclosure most appropriate to the beneficiaries of accounting disclosure, as will be cho

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
A Vision to development the Islamic banks that operating under the financial system based on interest: (Iraq Case Study)
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This paper aims to build a modern vision for Islamic banks to ensure sustainability and growth, as well it aims to highlight the positive Iraqi steps in the Islamic banking sector. In order to build this vision, several scientific research approaches were adopted (quantitative, descriptive analytical, descriptive). As for the research community, it was for all the Iraqi private commercial banks, including Islamic banks. The research samples varied according to a diversity of the methods and the data availability. A questionnaire was constructed and conducted, measuring internal and external honesty. 50 questionnaires were distributed to Iraqi academic specialized in Islamic banking. All distributed forms were subject to a thorough analys

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use sensitivity analysis in evaluating projects Investment under the conditions of risk and uncertainty Case study of glass bottles project in Anbar province
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This paper studies the investment project evaluation under the condition of uncertainty. Evaluation of investment project under risk and uncertainty is possible to be carried out through application of various methods and techniques. The best known methods are : Risk-adjusted discount rate , certainty equivalent method , Sensitivity analysis and Simulation method The objective of this study is using the sensitivity analysis in evaluation Glass Bottles project  in Anbar province under the condition of risk and uncertainty.

After applying sensitivity analysis we found that the glass bottles project  sensitive to the following factors (cash flow, the cost of investment, and the pro

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 19 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Rules and steps The design of university research projects
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Research is a study conducted by a researcher or a group of researchers to uncover ambiguity, complete a knowledge, or define a relationship, Solve a problem, or answer a question by carefully investigating the comprehensive and in-depth examination of the evidence and evidence related to this knowledge, revealing a relationship, or solving a problem, or answering a question, to be a systematic, In evidence and evidence that reveal facts and general rules, relationships or solutions, in addition to providing knowledge Human rights are verifiable, tested and confirmed. The university research (graduate research, master's thesis, doctoral dissertation) is the most important type of research, and it is supposed to be the best one, since it

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using VGG Models with Intermediate Layer Feature Maps for Static Hand Gesture Recognition
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A hand gesture recognition system provides a robust and innovative solution to nonverbal communication through human–computer interaction. Deep learning models have excellent potential for usage in recognition applications. To overcome related issues, most previous studies have proposed new model architectures or have fine-tuned pre-trained models. Furthermore, these studies relied on one standard dataset for both training and testing. Thus, the accuracy of these studies is reasonable. Unlike these works, the current study investigates two deep learning models with intermediate layers to recognize static hand gesture images. Both models were tested on different datasets, adjusted to suit the dataset, and then trained under different m

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