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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 18 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The challenges of precision axes for futuristic regional relations in the middle east (Iraq after post triumph's period)
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The research has tackled about an important transformation within the whole region of middle east, especially there were more challenges which revealed under the huge pivotal interests of global powers that ruled the new world order by United states of America ; being very affected over the international and regional relations than any situations appeared previously within political realities. So that, many of variables inside the international scene which happened during of this period of contradicting strategic policies by the process of reforming and restructuring of difficult equations that imposed by international and regional allies and blocs . This article had concentrated over various strategic and political studies which reflect

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 10 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Research In Social Sciences And Humanities
PHYSICAL AND FUNCTIONAL CONSTRUCTION INDICATORS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO SOME ELEMENTS OF FITNESS FOR BUDDING BASKETBALL PLAYERS
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Basketball is a popular game in many parts of the world and many developed countries are making continuous efforts to prepare and develop their emerging players on scientific and clear bases as the basis for reaching high levels The researchers used the descriptive approach in the method of correlative studies to suit the nature of the study The readymade software (IBM SPSS Statistics Version24) was used to perform statistical treatments The researchers concluded that there was a significant relationship between body size indicators (height and weight) with the fitness elements of the emerging basketball players The researchers recommended conducting a similar study to determine the type of relationship to the indicators of the physical str

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Psychological Flow and Its Relation to Futuristic Thinking among Postgraduates
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The research seeks to find the relationship between psychological flow and futuristic thinking among postgraduate students. To this end, the researchers have made up two scales: one scale to measure the psychological flow which consisted of (32) items and the other to measure the futuristic thinking included (39) items which were distributed into three domains. As to collect the required data, the two scales had applied on a sample comprised (200) postgraduate students. The findings revealed that there is a correlation between psychological flow and futuristic thinking. The researcher recommended the coming studies take the relationship between psychological flow and psychological happiness.

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Kindergarten Children Addiction to Tablet Devices and Its Negative Effects
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The characteristic of our time is the tremendous technological progress and the wide use of the Internet. Children have had a large share of this progress.as they are becoming fond of having the technological equipment of tablets and mobile phones which become indispensable for these children cannot do without them .
Recently, the phenomenon of using mobile phones and tablets by children has become more widespread, and the society in general and parents, in particular, have ignored the reasons for their health .Despite the many advantages and benefits for children who are well trained to use these devices properly that have enhanced their cognitive and social abilities, there are many disadvantages that could harm children's growth if

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Trends In Iraqi Oil Revenues After 2003 Under The Effect Of World Oil Prices Fluctuation
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Characterized Iraq, being one of the oldest countries where oil was discovered in the Middle East since 1927, and possess a vast oil reserves. In addition, the production and marketing of Iraqi oil continued since 1934 and until the present time. Over the past eight decades, the range of economic benefit of the financial Iraq’s oil resources varied according to the applicable forms of investments in the oil sector in Iraq.

This research included a study

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2025
Journal Name
Modern Sport
Cyberbullying and Its Relationship to Pessimism and Optimism Among Female Students
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This study aimed to explore the relationship between cyberbullying and levels of pessimism and optimism among female university students, emphasizing the significance of these variables in students' psychological well-being. The research problem was identified in the increasing rates of cyberbullying among female students and its negative impact on optimism and pessimism, alongside the lack of effective counseling programs addressing this issue. The study sample consisted of 30 third-year students from the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences for Women during the academic year 2023--2024. The participants were deliberately selected through a lottery method. The researchers employed the descriptive survey method as it suited the

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Momentum Ranking Function of Z-Numbers and its Application to Game Theory
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After Zadeh introduced the concept of z-number scientists in various fields have shown keen interest in applying this concept in various applications. In applications of z-numbers, to compare two z-numbers, a ranking procedure is essential.  While a few ranking functions have been already proposed in the literature there is a need to evolve some more good ranking functions.  In this paper, a novel ranking function for z-numbers is proposed- "the Momentum Ranking Function"(MRF). Also, game theoretic problems where the payoff matrix elements are z-numbers are considered and the application of the momentum ranking function in such problems is demonstrated.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Health Anxiety Related to Coronavirus (Covid 19) and Its Relationship to Health Behavior among Baghdad University Employees
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The aim of the research is to identify the relationship between health anxiety associated with Coronavirus (Covid 19) and its relationship to health behavior among Baghdad University employees, as well as to identify the differences in health anxiety and health behavior according to the variables (gender, occupation, and age). To achieve the objectives of the research, a scale was designed to measure the health anxiety in addition to the adoption of the health behavior scale prepared by (Renner & Schwarzer, 2005). The two scales were applied to a sample of (277) academics and (206) employees, while the number of students was (667). The sample was chosen by electronic application from a number of colleges at Al-Jadiriyah Complex. Afte

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 14 2023
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Applying Scikit-learn of Machine Learning to Predict Consumed Energy in Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering, Baghdad, Iraq
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Globally, buildings use about 40% of energy. Many elements, such as the physical properties of the structure, the efficiency of the cooling and heating systems, the activity of the occupants, and the building’s sustainability, affect the energy consumption of a building. It is really difficult to predict how much energy a building will need. To improve the building’s sustainability and create sustainable energy sources to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, estimating the building's energy use is necessary. This paper explains the energy consumed in the lecture building of the Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering, University of Baghdad (UOB), Baghdad, Iraq. The weather data and the building construction informati

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