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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Publication Date
Sun Dec 16 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
An Educational Model in Journalistic Production Course to Develop the Creative Thinking Skills of Printing Design Students
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The printing designer's creative thinking is a deliberate  mental process based on specific skills that stimulate the motivation of  the student to learn and call for  new information for the investigation and research to discover the problems and attitudes and through reformulating the experience in new patterns depending on the active imagination and the flexible scientific thinking through providing the largest number possible  of various unfamiliar  printing design models, and testing their suitability and then readjusting the results with the availability of  suitable educational, learning and academic atmosphere.

The designer's creative thinking depends on main skills. Fluency skill is to put t

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2011
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Experimental Study on Carbon Steel Corrosion and its Inhibition Using Sodium Benzoate Under Different Operating Conditions
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Corrosion experiments were carried out to investigate the effect of several operating parameters on the corrosion rate and corrosion potential of carbon steel in turbulent flow conditions in the absence and presence of sodium benzoate inhibitor using electrochemical polarization technique. These parameters were rotational velocity (0 - 1.57 m/s), temperature (30oC – 50oC), and time. The effect of these parameters on the corrosion rate and inhibition efficiency were investigated and discussed. It was found that the corrosion rate represented by limiting current increases considerably with increasing velocity and temperature and that it decreased with time due to the formation of corrosion product layer. The corrosion potential shifted t

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 28 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Assessing Acid Fracturing for Low-Permeability Carbonate Formation to Improve Oil Production
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This study investigates the application of hydraulic acid fracturing to enhance oil production in the Mishrif Formation of the Al-Fakkah oilfield due to declining flow rates and wellhead pressures resulting from asphaltene deposition and inadequate permeability. Implementing acid fracturing, an established technique for low-permeability carbonate reserves, was essential due to the inadequacy of prior solvent cleaning and acidizing efforts. The document outlines the protocols established prior to and following the treatment, emphasizing the importance of careful oversight to guarantee safety and efficacy. In the MiniFrac treatment, 150 barrels of #30 cross-linked gel were injected at 25 barrels per minute, followed by an overflush wi

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 28 2025
Journal Name
The Iraqi Geological Journal
Assessing Acid Fracturing for Low-Permeability Carbonate Formation to Improve Oil Production
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This study investigates the application of hydraulic acid fracturing to enhance oil production in the Mishrif Formation of the Al-Fakkah oilfield due to declining flow rates and wellhead pressures resulting from asphaltene deposition and inadequate permeability. Implementing acid fracturing, an established technique for low-permeability carbonate reserves, was essential due to the inadequacy of prior solvent cleaning and acidizing efforts. The document outlines the protocols established prior to and following the treatment, emphasizing the importance of careful oversight to guarantee safety and efficacy. In the MiniFrac treatment, 150 barrels of #30 cross-linked gel were injected at 25 barrels per minute, followed by an overflush wi

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 18 2015
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics
A MODIFIED FUZZY MULTI-OBJECTIVE LINEAR PROGRAMMING TO SOLVE AGGREGATE PRODUCTION PLANNING
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This paper develops a fuzzy multi-objective model for solving aggregate production planning problems that contain multiple products and multiple periods in uncertain environments. We seek to minimize total production cost and total labor cost. We adopted a new method that utilizes a Zimmermans approach to determine the tolerance and aspiration levels. The actual performance of an industrial company was used to prove the feasibility of the proposed model. The proposed model shows that the method is useful, generalizable, and can be applied to APP problems with other parameters.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Application of simulated annealing to solve multi-objectives for aggregate production planning
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Aggregate production planning (APP) is one of the most significant and complicated problems in production planning and aim to set overall production levels for each product category to meet fluctuating or uncertain demand in future. and to set decision concerning hiring, firing, overtime, subcontract, carrying inventory level. In this paper, we present a simulated annealing (SA) for multi-objective linear programming to solve APP. SA is considered to be a good tool for imprecise optimization problems. The proposed model minimizes total production and workforce costs. In this study, the proposed SA is compared with particle swarm optimization (PSO). The results show that the proposed SA is effective in reducing total production costs and req

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Trends In Iraqi Oil Revenues After 2003 Under The Effect Of World Oil Prices Fluctuation
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Characterized Iraq, being one of the oldest countries where oil was discovered in the Middle East since 1927, and possess a vast oil reserves. In addition, the production and marketing of Iraqi oil continued since 1934 and until the present time. Over the past eight decades, the range of economic benefit of the financial Iraq’s oil resources varied according to the applicable forms of investments in the oil sector in Iraq.

This research included a study

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 10 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Techniques
RESPONSE OF AWASSI SHEEP TO FREQUENT LAMBING UNDER PRIVATE FARM CONDITION
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