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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 18 2015
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics
A MODIFIED FUZZY MULTI-OBJECTIVE LINEAR PROGRAMMING TO SOLVE AGGREGATE PRODUCTION PLANNING
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This paper develops a fuzzy multi-objective model for solving aggregate production planning problems that contain multiple products and multiple periods in uncertain environments. We seek to minimize total production cost and total labor cost. We adopted a new method that utilizes a Zimmermans approach to determine the tolerance and aspiration levels. The actual performance of an industrial company was used to prove the feasibility of the proposed model. The proposed model shows that the method is useful, generalizable, and can be applied to APP problems with other parameters.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Application of simulated annealing to solve multi-objectives for aggregate production planning
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Aggregate production planning (APP) is one of the most significant and complicated problems in production planning and aim to set overall production levels for each product category to meet fluctuating or uncertain demand in future. and to set decision concerning hiring, firing, overtime, subcontract, carrying inventory level. In this paper, we present a simulated annealing (SA) for multi-objective linear programming to solve APP. SA is considered to be a good tool for imprecise optimization problems. The proposed model minimizes total production and workforce costs. In this study, the proposed SA is compared with particle swarm optimization (PSO). The results show that the proposed SA is effective in reducing total production costs and req

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 28 2025
Journal Name
The Iraqi Geological Journal
Assessing Acid Fracturing for Low-Permeability Carbonate Formation to Improve Oil Production
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This study investigates the application of hydraulic acid fracturing to enhance oil production in the Mishrif Formation of the Al-Fakkah oilfield due to declining flow rates and wellhead pressures resulting from asphaltene deposition and inadequate permeability. Implementing acid fracturing, an established technique for low-permeability carbonate reserves, was essential due to the inadequacy of prior solvent cleaning and acidizing efforts. The document outlines the protocols established prior to and following the treatment, emphasizing the importance of careful oversight to guarantee safety and efficacy. In the MiniFrac treatment, 150 barrels of #30 cross-linked gel were injected at 25 barrels per minute, followed by an overflush wi

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimation of Parameters for the Gumbel Type-I Distribution under Type-II Censoring Scheme
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This paper aims to decide the best parameter estimation methods for the parameters of the Gumbel type-I distribution under the type-II censorship scheme. For this purpose, classical and Bayesian parameter estimation procedures are considered. The maximum likelihood estimators are used for the classical parameter estimation procedure. The asymptotic distributions of these estimators are also derived. It is not possible to obtain explicit solutions of Bayesian estimators. Therefore, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and Lindley techniques are taken into account to estimate the unknown parameters. In Bayesian analysis, it is very important to determine an appropriate combination of a prior distribution and a loss function. Therefore, two different

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The economic implications of the housing problem In Iraq and ways to address it - a theoretical research
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The problem of housing in Iraq is a long-rooted and rooted problem, and it needs a great effort to find out its causes and thus give essential points that contribute to alleviating and addressing it, and it is worth noting that research into the housing problem and the housing sector in Iraq is not done in isolation from other sectors and studies. As well as the economic policies pursued and the social and political conditions. It is known that the Iraqi economy is a unilateral (rentier) economy, that is, it depends almost entirely on exporting oil and obtaining revenues, and that the economic decision and economic policies followed in Iraq are greatly affected by several factors, including the economic, social and political fact

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposal of Using Principle of Maximizing Entropy of Generalized Gamma Distribution to Estimate the Survival probabilities of the Population in Iraq
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In this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on the basis of the method of the Cen

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Estimation and Analysis of the Cobb-Duglas Production Function for the Rail Transport Sector in Iraq for the Period 1990-2016 using the ARDL Model)
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Abstract:

Since the railway transport sector is very important in many countries of the world, we have tried through this research to study the production function of this sector and to indicate the level of productivity under which it operates.

It was found through the estimation and analysis of the production function Kub - Duglas that the railway transport sector in Iraq suffers from a decline in the level of productivity, which was reflected in the deterioration of the level of services provided for the transport of passengers and goods. This led to the loss of the sector of importance in supporting the national economy and the reluctance of most passengers an

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Extent of Applying Corporate Governance Requirements According to International Specification (ISO 26000:2010) in the National Insurance Company: A Research Application
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Abstract

                The research aims to identify the application of corporate governance requirements according to the international standard (ISO 26000:2010) in the National Insurance Company. Strengths and weaknesses were identified to study the current state of this requirement's application in the company under investigation. The descriptive-analytical approach was utilized through a checklist derived from ISO 26000:2010. Several personal interviews and field visits were conducted to understand the extent of application and documentation based on various statistical methods. The results revealed a level of applic

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 14 2025
Journal Name
Journal Mustansiriyah Of Sports Science
The effect of using Daniel's model for people with two types of brain control (left and right) to learn the skill of the Cartwheel in artistic gymnastics for second-stage students
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The research problem focused through the researcher's experience in the gymnastics game and the lack of use of educational models that give the student an important role in the educational process, so it became necessary to identify the type of prevailing style for students, and the need for diversity in the use of educational models based on scientific theories, including the Daniel Document model. Based on three theories of learning, which are structural, behavioral, and meaningful learning. The research aimed to identify the effect of using the Daniel model for people with two types of brain control (left and right) to learn the skill of the Cartwheel in artistic gymnastics for students of the second stage. The researcher used the experi

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Measuring the cost of consulting services under the traditional cost approach and the performance-based costing technique and its impact on achieving profits : Applied research in the advisory office of Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering - University of Baghdad
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Abstract:

                    This research aims to apply the Performance Focused Activity Based Costing System in the consultant office of Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering at the University of Technology for the purpose of measuring the cost of consulting services provided by these offices in order to reduce costs and their reflection in achieving profits. For the purpose of calculating costs accurately, and to test the hypothesis of the research, the research was applied in the office of the consultant of the College of Engineering Al-Khwarizm - University of Baghdad through the financial statement

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