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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Dogmatism and Its Relation to the Formation of Ideological Identity of the University Students
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The formation of the identity of the ego associates with adolescence and the beginnings of youth, where represents the basic requirement for growth. This stage reflects a turning point towards the necessary autonomy for the growth of normal in adulthood that needs the ego growth from his point of view to pass eight consecutive stages of the individual faces in each particular crisis. It is determined by its growth path depending on the nature of solved positively or negatively, influenced by several factors: biological, social, cultural, personal, and a dogmatic obstacle to personal thinking which refers to the kind of sclerotic thought a bigot to the inside of obsolete beliefs refuse to discuss and consider. The final idea is debatable

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 23 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Meta-Motivation and its Relationship to the Uniqueness Seeking of the Engineering Colleges Students
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The current study aims to identify:The meta-motivation and Uniqueness seeking of the study sample. The correlated  relationship among them. The present study sample consists of (400) students from the colleges of engineering, University of Baghdad, and the University of Technology in the academic year (2019-2020), and the researcher has adopted the Chen Scale (1995)to measure the meta-motivation after its translation into Arabic by(Al-Samawi,2011).The scale includes six dimensions. The researcher has also adopted the Snyder&Fromkin scale (1980) to measure the uniqueness  seeking after translating and adapting it into the Arabic environment. The scale consists of three dimensions. The results show that students of the Facult

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2024
Journal Name
مجلة دراسات دولية
توظيف خيارات استراتيجيات مكافحة التطرف العنيف في العراق وافاقها المستقبلية
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أن للتطرف العنيف أسباب متنوعة تقف وراء ظهوره وتمدده في دول العالم المختلفة على نطاق واسع، إذ إن لكل بيئة ظروفها وخصوصياتها الكلية والفرعية التي تسهم في تعزيز القدرة التأثيرية للسلوكيات العنفية في إطار مجتمع ما، لاسيما إذا علمنا إن التطرف العنيف المؤدي الى الإرهاب كسلوكيات عنفية متطرفة مدمرة للبناء المجتمعي ما كان ليستمر لولا وجود بيئة حاضنة وظروف تساعد في انتشاره واستمرارية قدراته التأثيرية في البناء السي

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
دراسات دولية
توظيف خيارات استراتيجيات مكافحة التطرف العنيف في العراق وافاقها المستقبلية
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أن للتطرف العنيف أسباب متنوعة تقف وراء ظهوره وتمدده في دول العالم المختلفة على نطاق واسع، إذ إن لكل بيئة ظروفها وخصوصياتها الكلية والفرعية التي تسهم في تعزيز القدرة التأثيرية للسلوكيات العنفية في إطار مجتمع ما، لاسيما إذا علمنا إن التطرف العنيف المؤدي الى الإرهاب كسلوكيات عنفية متطرفة مدمرة للبناء المجتمعي ما كان ليستمر لولا وجود بيئة حاضنة وظروف تساعد في انتشاره واستمرارية قدراته التأثيرية في البناء السي

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Dates Leaves Midribs to Prepare Hierarchical Structures Incorporating Porous Carbon and Zeolite A Composites for Cesium137Cs Ion Exchange
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This study synthesized zeolite 4A, and hierarchical composite structure consisting of zeolite 4A- carbon were successfully prepared. Hydrothermal method was used to grow a layer of zeolite 4A over porous carbon surfaces to enhance mass transfer and increase surface area of zeolite. The products then were used to remove radioactive cesium137Cs from liquid wastewater. Iraqi dates leaves midribs (DM) were used as locally available agricultural waste to prepare low- cost porous carbon, using carbonization method in tubular furnace at 900C for two hours. Hierarchical porous structures including zeolite are prepared by mechanically activating the carbon surface via Ultrasonicating nanoparticles suspension of ground zeolite type 4A.F

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate Poisson regression model hierarchy and its application to the maternal deaths in Baghdad
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Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Optimum Reinforcement Layer Number for Soil under the Ring Footing Subjected to Inclined Load
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The primary components of successful engineering projects are time, cost, and quality. The use of the ring footing ensures the presence of these elements. This investigation aims to find the optimum number of geogrid reinforcement layers under ring footing subjected to inclined loading. For this purpose, experimental models were used. The parameters were studied to find the optimum geogrid layers number, including the optimum geogrid layers spacing and the optimum geogrid layers number. The optimum geogrid layers spacing value is 0.5B. And as the load inclination angle increased, the tilting and the tilting improvement percent for the load inclination angles (5°,10°,15°) are (40%,28%, and 5%) respectively. The reduction percent o

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Optimum Reinforcement Layer Number for Soil under the Ring Footing Subjected to Inclined Load
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The primary components of successful engineering projects are time, cost, and quality. The use of the ring footing ensures the presence of these elements. This investigation aims to find the optimum number of geogrid reinforcement layers under ring footing subjected to inclined loading. For this purpose, experimental models were used. The parameters were studied to find the optimum geogrid layers number, including the optimum geogrid layers spacing and the optimum geogrid layers number. The optimum geogrid layers spacing value is 0.5B. And as the load inclination angle increased, the tilting and the tilting improvement percent for the load inclination angles (5°,10°,15°) are (40%,28%, and 5%) respectively. The reduction percent of the

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Trends In Iraqi Oil Revenues After 2003 Under The Effect Of World Oil Prices Fluctuation
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Characterized Iraq, being one of the oldest countries where oil was discovered in the Middle East since 1927, and possess a vast oil reserves. In addition, the production and marketing of Iraqi oil continued since 1934 and until the present time. Over the past eight decades, the range of economic benefit of the financial Iraq’s oil resources varied according to the applicable forms of investments in the oil sector in Iraq.

This research included a study

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