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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Iraq public exposuring to foreign satellites and its effect on the cultural identity
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The summary of this study is to identify the relation ship between exposuing of the
public to foreign satellites and the degree of cultural of Iraqi public . the danger Iraqi public
exposure to foreign satellite specially some groups of the public are still own limited culture
and ideology without enough conscious to attitude of society . such people cun easily be
controlled by satellites , because these satellites may be the only cultural source for them
which may badly affect their behaviour . This study also aims to identify the level of Iraqi
people exposure to foreign satellites and the types and motivations of that exposure , then to
realize the relationship between exposing to foreign satellites and the cultur

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Stiffness Characteristics of Pile Models for Cement Improving Sandy Soil by Low-Pressure Injection Laboratory Setup
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Soil improvement has developed as a realistic solution for enhancing soil properties so that structures can be constructed to meet project engineering requirements due to the limited availability of construction land in urban centers. The jet grouting method for soil improvement is a novel geotechnical alternative for problematic soils for which conventional foundation designs cannot provide acceptable and lasting solutions. The paper's methodology was based on constructing pile models using a low-pressure injection laboratory setup built and made locally to simulate the operation of field equipment. The setup design was based on previous research that systematically conducted unconfined compression testing (U.C.Ts.). Th

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Teaching methods approved in the university and its relationship to classroom discipline and management proposals treated
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The study aims detection teaching modalities adopted relationship in Jerash University exactly the classroom, and to achieve the goal of the study was to develop a questionnaire consisting of (39) items, and was achieving validity and reliability have, then sent to a sample of professors made up the university from (122) university professor of the total (172) professor, and they study population.

     Study found a relationship between the teaching methods of the four their strategies with classroom management, and as a result the overall average level, while Hspt critical thinking at the highest correlation with classroom discipline management relationship strategy, while the relatio

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
دراسات دولية
توظيف خيارات استراتيجيات مكافحة التطرف العنيف في العراق وافاقها المستقبلية
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أن للتطرف العنيف أسباب متنوعة تقف وراء ظهوره وتمدده في دول العالم المختلفة على نطاق واسع، إذ إن لكل بيئة ظروفها وخصوصياتها الكلية والفرعية التي تسهم في تعزيز القدرة التأثيرية للسلوكيات العنفية في إطار مجتمع ما، لاسيما إذا علمنا إن التطرف العنيف المؤدي الى الإرهاب كسلوكيات عنفية متطرفة مدمرة للبناء المجتمعي ما كان ليستمر لولا وجود بيئة حاضنة وظروف تساعد في انتشاره واستمرارية قدراته التأثيرية في البناء السي

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2024
Journal Name
مجلة دراسات دولية
توظيف خيارات استراتيجيات مكافحة التطرف العنيف في العراق وافاقها المستقبلية
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أن للتطرف العنيف أسباب متنوعة تقف وراء ظهوره وتمدده في دول العالم المختلفة على نطاق واسع، إذ إن لكل بيئة ظروفها وخصوصياتها الكلية والفرعية التي تسهم في تعزيز القدرة التأثيرية للسلوكيات العنفية في إطار مجتمع ما، لاسيما إذا علمنا إن التطرف العنيف المؤدي الى الإرهاب كسلوكيات عنفية متطرفة مدمرة للبناء المجتمعي ما كان ليستمر لولا وجود بيئة حاضنة وظروف تساعد في انتشاره واستمرارية قدراته التأثيرية في البناء السي

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Optimum Reinforcement Layer Number for Soil under the Ring Footing Subjected to Inclined Load
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The primary components of successful engineering projects are time, cost, and quality. The use of the ring footing ensures the presence of these elements. This investigation aims to find the optimum number of geogrid reinforcement layers under ring footing subjected to inclined loading. For this purpose, experimental models were used. The parameters were studied to find the optimum geogrid layers number, including the optimum geogrid layers spacing and the optimum geogrid layers number. The optimum geogrid layers spacing value is 0.5B. And as the load inclination angle increased, the tilting and the tilting improvement percent for the load inclination angles (5°,10°,15°) are (40%,28%, and 5%) respectively. The reduction percent o

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Optimum Reinforcement Layer Number for Soil under the Ring Footing Subjected to Inclined Load
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The primary components of successful engineering projects are time, cost, and quality. The use of the ring footing ensures the presence of these elements. This investigation aims to find the optimum number of geogrid reinforcement layers under ring footing subjected to inclined loading. For this purpose, experimental models were used. The parameters were studied to find the optimum geogrid layers number, including the optimum geogrid layers spacing and the optimum geogrid layers number. The optimum geogrid layers spacing value is 0.5B. And as the load inclination angle increased, the tilting and the tilting improvement percent for the load inclination angles (5°,10°,15°) are (40%,28%, and 5%) respectively. The reduction percent of the

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 14 2023
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Applying Scikit-learn of Machine Learning to Predict Consumed Energy in Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering, Baghdad, Iraq
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Globally, buildings use about 40% of energy. Many elements, such as the physical properties of the structure, the efficiency of the cooling and heating systems, the activity of the occupants, and the building’s sustainability, affect the energy consumption of a building. It is really difficult to predict how much energy a building will need. To improve the building’s sustainability and create sustainable energy sources to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion, estimating the building's energy use is necessary. This paper explains the energy consumed in the lecture building of the Al-Khwarizmi College of Engineering, University of Baghdad (UOB), Baghdad, Iraq. The weather data and the building construction informati

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Israeli vision of Iran's nuclear program Under Iranian - US rapprochement
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Israel is one of the countries most interested in Iran's nuclear program file, and the progress of negotiations between Iran and the six countries and will end it, as well as the nature of the relationship between Iran and the United States of America. Is determined by the Israeli vision of the nature of Iran's nuclear program Iran's policy toward Israel orientations, which does not recognize the existence of Israel. Israel, therefore, one of the countries pushing to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear technology. However, those Israeli efforts did not succeed in achieving its objectives, the United States of America and European countries is well aware of the risk of stenosis on Iran, as well as the risks and the consequences of militar

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