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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Dates Leaves Midribs to Prepare Hierarchical Structures Incorporating Porous Carbon and Zeolite A Composites for Cesium137Cs Ion Exchange
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This study synthesized zeolite 4A, and hierarchical composite structure consisting of zeolite 4A- carbon were successfully prepared. Hydrothermal method was used to grow a layer of zeolite 4A over porous carbon surfaces to enhance mass transfer and increase surface area of zeolite. The products then were used to remove radioactive cesium137Cs from liquid wastewater. Iraqi dates leaves midribs (DM) were used as locally available agricultural waste to prepare low- cost porous carbon, using carbonization method in tubular furnace at 900C for two hours. Hierarchical porous structures including zeolite are prepared by mechanically activating the carbon surface via Ultrasonicating nanoparticles suspension of ground zeolite type 4A.F

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate Poisson regression model hierarchy and its application to the maternal deaths in Baghdad
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Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Optimum Reinforcement Layer Number for Soil under the Ring Footing Subjected to Inclined Load
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The primary components of successful engineering projects are time, cost, and quality. The use of the ring footing ensures the presence of these elements. This investigation aims to find the optimum number of geogrid reinforcement layers under ring footing subjected to inclined loading. For this purpose, experimental models were used. The parameters were studied to find the optimum geogrid layers number, including the optimum geogrid layers spacing and the optimum geogrid layers number. The optimum geogrid layers spacing value is 0.5B. And as the load inclination angle increased, the tilting and the tilting improvement percent for the load inclination angles (5°,10°,15°) are (40%,28%, and 5%) respectively. The reduction percent o

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Optimum Reinforcement Layer Number for Soil under the Ring Footing Subjected to Inclined Load
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The primary components of successful engineering projects are time, cost, and quality. The use of the ring footing ensures the presence of these elements. This investigation aims to find the optimum number of geogrid reinforcement layers under ring footing subjected to inclined loading. For this purpose, experimental models were used. The parameters were studied to find the optimum geogrid layers number, including the optimum geogrid layers spacing and the optimum geogrid layers number. The optimum geogrid layers spacing value is 0.5B. And as the load inclination angle increased, the tilting and the tilting improvement percent for the load inclination angles (5°,10°,15°) are (40%,28%, and 5%) respectively. The reduction percent of the

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of management principles to Fayol in the implementation of competitive strategies Porter
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This paper aims to review the intellectual to the most important thought leaders administrative and strategic They both (Henry Fayol and Michelle Porter), who forward a lot of ideas that have helped countries in the advancement and progress their economies , has been drawing literature theoretical common border in Contributions ( Fayol ) philosophical and between applications ( Porter ), which reversed strategies of the three ( the leadership of the cost, differentiation, and focus ), so browse search how to apply and use the principles of Fayol in the implementation of strategies competitiveness of Porter, and stems from a problem ( ( to what extent a reflection of the principles ( Fayol) fourteen strategies (Porter ) competitiv

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Trends In Iraqi Oil Revenues After 2003 Under The Effect Of World Oil Prices Fluctuation
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Characterized Iraq, being one of the oldest countries where oil was discovered in the Middle East since 1927, and possess a vast oil reserves. In addition, the production and marketing of Iraqi oil continued since 1934 and until the present time. Over the past eight decades, the range of economic benefit of the financial Iraq’s oil resources varied according to the applicable forms of investments in the oil sector in Iraq.

This research included a study

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Combining Bourgoyne and Young Equations by Bagging Tree Regression to Predict Rate of Penetration in a Southern Iraqi Field, Case Study
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Abstract<p>Achieving an accurate and optimal rate of penetration (ROP) is critical for a cost-effective and safe drilling operation. While different techniques have been used to achieve this goal, each approach has limitations, prompting researchers to seek solutions. This study’s objective is to conduct the strategy of combining the Bourgoyne and Young (BYM) ROP equations with Bagging Tree regression in a southern Iraqi field. Although BYM equations are commonly used and widespread to estimate drilling rates, they need more specific drilling parameters to capture different ROP complexities. The Bagging Tree algorithm, a random forest variant, addresses these limitations by blending domain kno</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE USE OF ULTRAVIOLET RAYS TO PRESERVE FERMENTED GREEN OLIVES AND ITS EFFECTS ON CHEMICAL PROPERTIES OF ITS EXTRACTED OIL : THE USE OF ULTRAVIOLET RAYS TO PRESERVE FERMENTED GREEN OLIVES AND ITS EFFECTS ON CHEMICAL PROPERTIES OF ITS EXTRACTED OIL
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The use of ultraviolet rays is one of the methods of treating surface contamination of many foods especially pickles. however, there are some side effects to its use, especially in high percentage oil food products, it is necessary to determine the appropriate doses and time periods to avoid deterioration of its oil physicochemical characteristics. this study was conducted to see the effect of ultraviolet rays 15W on some chemical properties of olive oil when using it to preserve green olive pickles, treated for 5, 10 and 15 min daily. green olive fruits Iraqi variety (al-ashrasi), in season (2020-2021) were pickled using Spanish style, the best time period to pr

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 13 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Family Violence Directed Against the Kindergarten Child and Its Relationship to Some Variables
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The research aims at identifying the level of family violence directed against the kindergarten child, as well as to identify the significance of the difference in family violence directed against the kindergarten child according to the gender variable

(male-female). It aims also to identify the significance of the difference in family violence directed against the kindergarten child according to the Stage variable (kindergarten-pre-primary). The researcher employed the descriptive correlative approach to conduct the study. The research sample was chosen in a simple random way, as the number of the participants was (130) boys and girls, with (70) males and (60) females, distributed according to the stage with (66) participants in

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Breakfast and its relationship to the curriculum daily diet of school-age children
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The breakfast key components of good nutrition and a large proportion of pupils to Ataatnol her breakfast at home and increase the failure rate breakfast increase the child's age research aims to study the importance of breakfast and emphasize the need to contain aggregates of basic food and its relationship to the curriculum daily diet and its impact on the balance of proteins, fats in food daily as well as the effect of some relevant factors such as the mother's level of education and the number of family members and summarized the most important results in that the percentage of 15.6% Neglected children eating breakfast as well as afternoon that Almaah percentages of calories coming from protein and fat at breakfast .....

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