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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Multistage and Numerical Discretization Methods for Estimating Parameters in Nonlinear Linear Ordinary Differential Equations Models.
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Many of the dynamic processes in different sciences are described by models of differential equations. These models explain the change in the behavior of the studied process over time by linking the behavior of the process under study with its derivatives. These models often contain constant and time-varying parameters that vary according to the nature of the process under study in this We will estimate the constant and time-varying parameters in a sequential method in several stages. In the first stage, the state variables and their derivatives are estimated in the method of penalized splines(p- splines) . In the second stage we use pseudo lest square to estimate constant parameters, For the third stage, the rem

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 23 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Positive thinking and its relationship to academic achievement in art history
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This study was conducted for the purpose of exploring the relationship between positive thinking and academic achievement in art history. And it relates to the student’s personality, intelligence, abilities and economic and social level. The sample of the study consisted of (40) male and female students from the first stage students - Department of Art Education in the Faculty of Fine Arts / Morning Study, A positive thinking questionnaire was applied to them, and the study found that there is no positive relationship between positive thinking and academic achievement in art history.   

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 22 2023
Journal Name
Advances In Structural Engineering
Experimental and finite element analysis of reinforced concrete multi-cell box girders retrofitted with carbon fiber reinforced polymer strips under torsion
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This study expands the state of the art in studies that assess torsional retrofit of reinforced concrete (RC) multi-cell box girders with carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) strips. The torsional behavior of non-damaged and pre-damaged RC multi-cell box girder specimens externally retrofitted by CFRP strips was investigated through a series of laboratory experiments. It was found that retrofitting the pre-damaged specimens with CFRP strips increased the ultimate torsional capacity by more than 50% as compared to the un-damaged specimens subjected to equivalent retrofitting. This indicated that the retrofit has been less effective for the girder specimen that did not develop distortion beforehand as a result of pre-loading. From

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 22 2023
Journal Name
Advances In Structural Engineering
Experimental and finite element analysis of reinforced concrete multi-cell box girders retrofitted with carbon fiber reinforced polymer strips under torsion
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This study expands the state of the art in studies that assess torsional retrofit of reinforced concrete (RC) multi-cell box girders with carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) strips. The torsional behavior of non-damaged and pre-damaged RC multi-cell box girder specimens externally retrofitted by CFRP strips was investigated through a series of laboratory experiments. It was found that retrofitting the pre-damaged specimens with CFRP strips increased the ultimate torsional capacity by more than 50% as compared to the un-damaged specimens subjected to equivalent retrofitting. This indicated that the retrofit has been less effective for the girder specimen that did not develop distortion beforehand as a result of pre-loading. From

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Article The reality of the settlements in the occupied West Bank, and its impact on the future of the Palestinian state
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الخلاصة

تتناول هذه الورقة مخططات وسياسات الاستيطان في الضفة الغربية والقدس الشرقية منذ العام 1967، عبر سياسات قادها حزب العمل وأكملها حزب الليكود وكاديما وبقية الأحزاب الإسرائيلية، تلك السياسات التي استهدفت فرض السيطرة السياسية الكاملة على الأرض، وما نتج عن ذلك من سيطرة حصرية على الأرضوتقييد استخداماتها، ومحاصرة الوجود الفلسطيني والتضييق عليه، وتحويل مراكز ال

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 09 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education
Addiction to the Internet and its relation to the mental alertness of students of the Faculty of Physical Education and Sports Science for Girls
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 23 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Refused Derived Fuel RDF and its role in reducing production
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Refuse derived fuel (RDF) is considered one of the most important types of low cost thermal energy which can be tapped in the industry, especially the cement industry in particular being the need of high thermal energy during the production processes, and in this paper we have implemented the use of a derivative of the fuel RDF  as a substitute for gasoline , to reduce production costs and thereby achieve production efficiency, and the methodology used in this research statistical analysis as well as the use of the cost of kaizen target for the purpose of reducing costs and achieve production efficiency, and this has reduced the cost total cement production by which led to reduce total costs of cement production by 8.4% and an incre

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 19 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of Islamic banks to attract savings to funding banking activities in Iraq For period (2008-2012)
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Islamic banks are a financial institution that is interested in attracting financial savings from financial entities and directing them towards those with financial deficits, both for consumption purposes or for investment purposes. It provides banking services provided by commercial banks and other services But based on the principles and principles of Islamic law, and because of its recent emergence in Iraq, its ability to attract savings is not like non-Islamic commercial banks, which puts them in the option of using their capital to achieve its objective of banking. The research started from the premise that "Islamic banks in Iraq during the period (2008-2012) rely on their capital to perform their activities more than they rely on d

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Degree to Which Princess Rahma University College Students Possess E-Learning Skills Related to Moodle from their Point of View, in Light of the Corona Crisis
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This study aims to identify the degree of students of Princess Rahma University College owning e-learning skills related to MOODLE as they perceived in the of light Corona crisis. The researchers' questionnaire consisted of (37) items, distributed in three areas of e-learning skills related to the MOODLE on (147) students were chosen randomly. The results of the study showed that the degree of students 'possession of e-learning skills related to the MOODLE was significant. The results also revealed that there were statistically significant differences in the degree of students' possession of electronic learning skills related to the MOODLE due to sex in favor of females. Finally, there were no statistically significant differences in the

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of innovation and modernization as an approach to strategic change in the efficiency of organizational performance Field research in the Oil Projects Company (SCOP(
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The purpose of this research is to improve the organizational performance of the Oil Projects Company by adopting an approach to strategic change، and finding appropriate solutions to the problems facing the company. The researcher adopted in designing his research by conducting a survey of previous literature that dealt with approaches to strategic change، as the results of the survey showed that most researchers agree on the approach of renewal and modernization، Which formed a starting point for the researcher to identify the extent of the company's management interest in renewal and modernization to improve its level of performance، and the quality of the procedures followed on the ground that is related to

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