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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Article The reality of the settlements in the occupied West Bank, and its impact on the future of the Palestinian state
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الخلاصة

تتناول هذه الورقة مخططات وسياسات الاستيطان في الضفة الغربية والقدس الشرقية منذ العام 1967، عبر سياسات قادها حزب العمل وأكملها حزب الليكود وكاديما وبقية الأحزاب الإسرائيلية، تلك السياسات التي استهدفت فرض السيطرة السياسية الكاملة على الأرض، وما نتج عن ذلك من سيطرة حصرية على الأرضوتقييد استخداماتها، ومحاصرة الوجود الفلسطيني والتضييق عليه، وتحويل مراكز ال

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Modified Grid Clustering Technique to Predict Heat Transfer Coefficient in a Duct of Arbitrary Cross Section Area
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A simple straightforward mathematical method has been developed to cluster grid nodes on a boundary segment of an arbitrary geometry that can be fitted by a relevant polynomial. The method of solution is accomplished in two steps. At the first step, the length of the boundary segment is evaluated by using the mean value theorem, then grids are clustered as desired, using relevant linear clustering functions. At the second step, as the coordinates cell nodes have been computed and the incremental distance between each two nodes has been evaluated, the original coordinate of each node is then computed utilizing the same fitted polynomial with the mean value theorem but reversibly.

The method is utilized to predict

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
From Learning for Living to Lifelong Learning “Seek knowledge from the cradle to the grave” Prophet Mohammed’s saying: نجاة احمد الجبوري
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ملخص البحث
تبحث الدراسھ عن تنفیذ افضل لمفھوم التعلم مدى الحیاة كھیكل موجھ للسیاسة التربویة في العراق بشكل عام وفي
التعلیم العالي بشكل خاص. تحدد الدراسة استراتجیات التعلم مدى الحیاة وتناقش اھمیتھ وسماتھ الرئیسیة لتسھیل
الوصول الى فرص تعلم متمیز و ملائم لحاجات الطلبة مدى الحیاة، كما تناقش دور الجامعة في تحقیق ھذا الھدف.

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Publication Date
Wed May 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Use of temporary interventions to reclaim neglected urban spaces
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The research deals with one of the urban problems facing cities, namely the existence of neglected urban spaces that need to be activated , These spaces give a negative image of the city, is not conducive to life and social interactions or the city has a one distinctive urban experience, leading to a reduction peoples' confidence in revisiting of those areas, hinder the rest of the activities in that region . Because these spaces are of the basic components of the city and give it its identity through the elements and entities that constitute it  , The idea of research emerged in the reclaiming of these spaces within contemporary urban trends and the activation of  flexible  , short-term and inovation for that purpose with

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Multistage and Numerical Discretization Methods for Estimating Parameters in Nonlinear Linear Ordinary Differential Equations Models.
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Many of the dynamic processes in different sciences are described by models of differential equations. These models explain the change in the behavior of the studied process over time by linking the behavior of the process under study with its derivatives. These models often contain constant and time-varying parameters that vary according to the nature of the process under study in this We will estimate the constant and time-varying parameters in a sequential method in several stages. In the first stage, the state variables and their derivatives are estimated in the method of penalized splines(p- splines) . In the second stage we use pseudo lest square to estimate constant parameters, For the third stage, the rem

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 14 2021
Journal Name
Petroleum Science And Technology
Coupled reservoir geomechanics with sand production to minimize the sanding risks in unconsolidated reservoirs
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Sand production in unconsolidated reservoirs has become a cause of concern for production engineers. Issues with sand production include increased wellbore instability and surface subsidence, plugging of production liners, and potential damage to surface facilities. A field case in southeast Iraq was conducted to predict the critical drawdown pressures (CDDP) at which the well can produce without sanding. A stress and sanding onset models were developed for Zubair reservoir. The results show that sanding risk occurs when rock strength is less than 7,250 psi, and the ratio of shear modulus to the bulk compressibility is less than 0.8 1012 psi2. As the rock strength is increased, the sand free drawdown and depletion becomes larger. The CDDP

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Different Development Scenarios to Increase the Production Rates for Fauqi Oil Field Southeastern Iraq
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The Fauqi field is located about 50Km North-East Amara town in Missan providence in Iraq. Fauqi field has 1,640 MMbbl STOIIP, which lies partly in Iran. Oil is produced from both Mishrif and Asmari zones. Geologically, the Fauqi anticline straddles the Iraqi/Iranian border and is most probably segmented by several faults. There are several reasons leading to drilling horizontal wells rather than vertical wells. The most important parameter is increasing oil recovery, particularly from thin or tight reservoir permeability. The Fauqi oil field is regarded as a giant field with approximately more than 1 billion barrels of proven reserves, but it has recently experienced low production rate problems in many of its existing wells. This study

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Generalized Pareto Survival Models to Estimation Optimal Survival Time for Myocardial Infarction Patients
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The survival analysis is one of the modern methods of analysis that is based on the fact that the dependent variable represents time until the event concerned in the study. There are many survival models that deal with the impact of explanatory factors on the likelihood of survival, including the models proposed by the world, David Cox, one of the most important and common models of survival, where it consists of two functions, one of which is a parametric function that does not depend on the survival time and the other a nonparametric function that depends on times of survival, which the Cox model is defined as a semi parametric model, The set of parametric models that depend on the time-to-event distribution parameters such as

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 23 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Positive thinking and its relationship to academic achievement in art history
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This study was conducted for the purpose of exploring the relationship between positive thinking and academic achievement in art history. And it relates to the student’s personality, intelligence, abilities and economic and social level. The sample of the study consisted of (40) male and female students from the first stage students - Department of Art Education in the Faculty of Fine Arts / Morning Study, A positive thinking questionnaire was applied to them, and the study found that there is no positive relationship between positive thinking and academic achievement in art history.   

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Structural Design And Construction Practice
A Standpoint on Implementing Six Sigma to Improve Construction Safety: Case Studies and Best Practices
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