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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects

تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Augmentation of Nanofluids Heat transfer in a Circular Tube with Baffled Winged Twisted Swirl Generator

This article introduces a numerical study on heat exchange and corrosion coefficients of Zinc–water nanofluid stream in a circular tube fitted with swirl generator utilizing CFD emulation. Different  forms of swirl generator which have the following properties of plain twisted tape (PTT) and baffle wings twisted tape (BTT) embeds with various ratio of twisting (y = 2.93, 3.91 and 4.89), baffle inclination angles (β = 0°, - 30° and 30) joined with 1%, 1.5% and 2% volume fraction of ZnO nanofluid were utilized for simulation. The results demonstrated that the heat and friction coefficients conducted by these two forms of vortex generator raised with Reynolds number, twist ratio and baffle inclination angles decreases. Likewise, t

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
تأثير تأثير الحضارة الأندلسية في الحضارة الأوربية انتقال أصناف من الأغذية إلى مائدة الطعام الأوروبية

       The progress that happened in Andalusia civilization was affected  by Arabic through taking care of agriculture by entering of new kinds of planets that were more important as political sides which led to prominence new kinds of food transported to Europe that had showed a real reflect of how chat of civilization among people who had lived in various ages until now

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Sustainability by recycling palm waste in designing women's belts: وفاء حسن شافعي -مرام زيد الحربي

This research contributes to environmental sustainability by recycling natural waste resources in making clothing products. The research aims to employ palm trees waste in designing belts suitable for contemporary women's fashion trends. Both descriptive and applied research approaches were used. Therefore, a collection of belts was designed and implemented. Then, a questionnaire was used to assess the extent to which the implemented belts achieved in sustainability standards using Likert scale. The sample size was 60 women. The data were analyzed using the SPSS program to calculate the arithmetic mean and standard deviation. One of the significant results of the research is the high average scores of the criteria for achieving sustainab

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Manifestations of social isolation in contemporary theater- Socio aesthetic study: صميم حسب الله يحيى -نورس عادل هادي

The research presented to the concept of social isolation through the manifestations of that concept and its works within the theatrical presentation space, and the diversity of directing experiences that the theatrical field benefited from, as contemporary data that contributed to the production of theatrical speech engaging with various levels of different form and content, and this was revealed through the chapters of the research that included The first chapter (the systematic framework), the second chapter (theoretical framework), which included the first topic (formations of social isolation), the second topic (social isolation in the world stage), and resulted in indicators including:
1- Postmodernism produced intellectual appr

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 23 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Quantitative Determination of Fluoroquinolones in Contaminated Soils by HPLC with Solid-Phase Extraction

This work reports the development of an analytical method for the simultaneous analysis of three fluoroquinolones; ciprofloxacin (CIP), norfloxacin (NOR) and ofloxacin (OFL) in soil matrix. The proposed method was performed by using microwave-assisted extraction (MAE), solid-phase extraction (SPE) for samples purification, and finally the pre-concentrated samples were analyzed by HPLC detector. In this study, various organic solvents were tested to extract the test compounds, and the extraction performance was evaluated by testing various parameters including extraction solvent, solvent volume, extraction time, temperature and number of the extraction cycles. The current method showed a good linearity over the concentration ranging from

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Study of Gender Differences in Health Promoting Behaviors for a Sample of Students Attending Institute of Technology, Baquba

Objective: To find out any gender differences in health promoting behaviors for a sample of students attending Institute of Technology/ Baquba. Methodology: An analytical, cross-sectional study conducted randomly for a sample of students attending Technical Institute/ Baquba, during the period from 10th November 2015 to 10th April 2016. A questionnaire used to collecting data, this questionnaire was consisted from two domains related to health promoting behaviors including (Dietary domain and domain of some daily life activities like sleep duration, rise time, bedtime and walking period per week). The

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 13 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
IRAQ YOUTH TRENDS TOWARDS CELEBRITY ADVERTISEMENTS ON SOCIAL MEDIA : (A research taken from a Master Degree thesis)

In the light of what is witnessing in the advertising arena of new ways and methods in delivering advertising message to consumers by finding new outlets to communicate with them especially through social networking sites, which became the first choice of advertising companies in order to spread its goods and services. These companies now are relying gradually on celebrities to appear with their products and goods to drive the audience's  attention towards them. The thesis aims to find out the attitudes of young people towards the the advertisements that show famous celebrities on social networking sites. The researcher used survey method which aims to record, analyze and interpret the phenomenon after collecting the necessa

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
بعض الاضطرابات السلوكية والانفعالية والانفعالية وعلاقتها بالاستعمال المفرط للألعاب الالكترونية لدى التلاميذ في المرحلة الابتدائي

سعى البحث الحالي الى التعرف على بعض الاضطرابات السلوكية والانفعالية وعلاقتها بالاستعمال المفرط للالعاب الالكترونية لدى تلاميذ المرحلة الابتدائية, إذ يواجه التلاميذ مشكلات سلوكية عديدة ،تظهر من خلال تعاملهم مع اقرانهم في البيت او في المدرسة والتي قد تتطور عند بعضهم وتتحول الى اضطرابات نفسية،مما يؤدي بهم الى ضعف التعلم وسوء التوافق في حياتهم المدرسية ويصبحون عُرضة للا صابة بالامراض النفسية ،إذا لم يتم تشخ

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 06 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
التخطيط التخطيط العمراني والسكاني لمدينة بغداد في عهد الوالي العثماني محمد رشيد الكوزلكي 1852-1857

I've dealt with my research is marked by ((urban and population planning for the city of Baghdad, during the reign of the Ottoman governor Muhammad Rashid Alkozlki 1852-1857)), a set of facts and incidents historical with the physical and demographic dimension, which passed on the history of the city of Baghdad on the fifth of the nineteenth century the contract during the Ottoman control Iraq, which lasted almost nearly four centuries

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 15 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Revitalizing Interior Designs in Religious Shrines: رؤى صلاح الدين حامد فريد-فاتن عباس الاسدي

  The current research is interested in the objective study of revitalizing the religious sites and the extent to which they achieve the pragmatic and semantic ends, because they are derived from history and civilization and have a clear impact over the recipient. The research question is (what are the techniques of developing the spaces of the religious shrines in accordance with revitalizing the interior spaces within them?).
The research aims at determining the weak and strong points in the process of revitalizing the interior spaces in the religious shrines.
The theoretical framework consists of two parts: the first addressed the revitalization in the interior design, and the second addressed the religious shrines and th

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