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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 14 2021
Journal Name
Petroleum Science And Technology
Coupled reservoir geomechanics with sand production to minimize the sanding risks in unconsolidated reservoirs
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Sand production in unconsolidated reservoirs has become a cause of concern for production engineers. Issues with sand production include increased wellbore instability and surface subsidence, plugging of production liners, and potential damage to surface facilities. A field case in southeast Iraq was conducted to predict the critical drawdown pressures (CDDP) at which the well can produce without sanding. A stress and sanding onset models were developed for Zubair reservoir. The results show that sanding risk occurs when rock strength is less than 7,250 psi, and the ratio of shear modulus to the bulk compressibility is less than 0.8 1012 psi2. As the rock strength is increased, the sand free drawdown and depletion becomes larger. The CDDP

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The integration between re-engineering and modern Approaches to reducing costs in the management of change
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       The entrance process re-engineering one of the main entrances of administrative and technology appropriate to keep pace with scientific progress and the continuing changes in business environment and for the purpose of achieving the goal sought by the organizations in the pursuit of rapid developments and renewable energy in the market competition by changing its operations and activities of the radical change which contributes to an effective contribution to reducing the cost of product or service taking into account the quality improvement in the management of change to keep the increase value and speed of placing on the market to meet customer needs and desires to achieve a

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The contribution of e-banking to the competitive advantage of banking institutions in Algeria: Case Study of Agricultural and Rural Development Bank
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The importance of the study stems from the fact that it deals with a very important subject, namely, the pivotal role played by E-banking in achieving the competitive advantage of the banking institutions operating in Algeria. By adopting the banking institution and adopting the elements of the electronic marketing mix and developing it as required by the environment The banking system of developments will inevitably be able to achieve excellence from its competitors as each of these elements have an important role in achieving competitive advantage, we relied in this study on studies and research that directly affect the problem of the study and we have put Estep In order to activate the contribution of e-banking in achieving competitiv

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Adopting statistical methods for controlling the quality of drinking water to achieve customer satisfaction
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The current research aims to adopt production quality decisions as the most important decisions , because they are accompanied by customer satisfaction through monitoring the quality of drinking water in iraq which reach through the pipeline network associated with water treatment projects of Tigris and Euphrates rivers. One of the indicators of quality control was the drawing of the C-chart by specifying the central line and the upper and lower limit of the control and the diagnosis of whether the production system as a whole within the scope of quality control or not and determine the strength and significance of the correlation between the quantities of water And actual needs for customers , the research has reached a number o

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 23 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Positive thinking and its relationship to academic achievement in art history
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This study was conducted for the purpose of exploring the relationship between positive thinking and academic achievement in art history. And it relates to the student’s personality, intelligence, abilities and economic and social level. The sample of the study consisted of (40) male and female students from the first stage students - Department of Art Education in the Faculty of Fine Arts / Morning Study, A positive thinking questionnaire was applied to them, and the study found that there is no positive relationship between positive thinking and academic achievement in art history.   

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Modified Grid Clustering Technique to Predict Heat Transfer Coefficient in a Duct of Arbitrary Cross Section Area
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A simple straightforward mathematical method has been developed to cluster grid nodes on a boundary segment of an arbitrary geometry that can be fitted by a relevant polynomial. The method of solution is accomplished in two steps. At the first step, the length of the boundary segment is evaluated by using the mean value theorem, then grids are clustered as desired, using relevant linear clustering functions. At the second step, as the coordinates cell nodes have been computed and the incremental distance between each two nodes has been evaluated, the original coordinate of each node is then computed utilizing the same fitted polynomial with the mean value theorem but reversibly.

The method is utilized to predict

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Analysis of Traditional and Fuzzy Quality Control Charts to Improve Short-Run Production in the Manufacturing Industry
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Quality control charts are limited to controlling one characteristic of a production process, and it needs a large amount of data to determine control limits to control the process. Another limitation of the traditional control chart is that it doesn’t deal with the vague data environment. The fuzzy control charts work with the uncertainty that exists in the data. Also, the fuzzy control charts investigate the random variations found between the samples. In modern industries, productivity is often of different designs and a small volume that depends on the market need for demand (short-run production) implemented in the same type of machines to the production units. In such cases, it is difficult to determine the contr

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 16 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education
Addiction to the Internet and its relation to the mental alertness of students of the Faculty of Physical Education and Sports Science for Girls
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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed mechanism to activate the role of the Federal board supreme Audit in the examination of the federal budget estimates of the state
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The aim of the research is to present and discuss the subject of the budgeting estimates and how to activate the role of the Federal board of supreme audit in examining these estimates through reference to Articles 6 and 10 of the Federal board of supreme Law, which did not restrict Federal board of supreme in Preventive control on examination process for planning which is prepared from the government units, as the result of a large amount  of government units Provisions and the weakness of estimates in most of its items, which rely on personal assessment and not based on scientific and logical basis of the estimate, which leads to the emergence of a deficit is not true in the general budget and this seems clear in most Iraq

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of innovation and modernization as an approach to strategic change in the efficiency of organizational performance Field research in the Oil Projects Company (SCOP(
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The purpose of this research is to improve the organizational performance of the Oil Projects Company by adopting an approach to strategic change، and finding appropriate solutions to the problems facing the company. The researcher adopted in designing his research by conducting a survey of previous literature that dealt with approaches to strategic change، as the results of the survey showed that most researchers agree on the approach of renewal and modernization، Which formed a starting point for the researcher to identify the extent of the company's management interest in renewal and modernization to improve its level of performance، and the quality of the procedures followed on the ground that is related to

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