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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Employ GIS Data to update the Map of the College of Water Resources Engineering Using Aerial and Satellite Images
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The study has used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data and Arc GIS software, to produce a new map. This map contains a spatial database of the newly constructed buildings, in the area of water resources engineering college, and using the above tool for updating contains the college in any time, also the map and browse all buildings individually or in clustered, for example, browsing geometric data,  statistical data and the plans of drawings, and make any necessary changes to these sectors immediately, or in the future, like the expansion of the study halls by constructed a new floor, or add supplements, prepare any electrical to any building, and  anything else.  The paper also, updates the old Google Earth image, f

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
E3s Web Of Conferences
Enhancing the Ability of The Square Footing to Resist Positive and Negative Eccentric Inclined Loading Using an Inclined Skirt
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Laboratory model tests were performed to investigate the behavior of shallow and inclined skirted foundations placed on sandy soil with R.D%=30 and the extent of the impact of the positive and negative eccentric-inclined loading effect on them. To achieve the experimental tests, it was used a box of (600×600) mm cross-sectional and 600mm in height and a square footing of (50*50) mm and 10 mm in thickness attached to the skirt with Ds=0.5B and various an angle of (10°, 20°, 30°). The results showed that using skirts leads to a significant improvement in load-carrying capacity and decreased settlement. In addition, when the skirt angle increased, the ultimate load improved. Load-carrying capacity decreased with increasing eccentri

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Planning the Production of the Electrical Distribution Converter (400KV/11) Using Time Series Methods and Goal Programming in the Fuzzy Environment
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This Paper aims to plan the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) for one month at Diyala Public Company and with more than one goal for the decision-maker in a fuzzy environment. The fuzzy demand was forecasting using the fuzzy time series model. The fuzzy lead time for raw materials involved in the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) was addressed using the fuzzy inference matrix through the application of the matrix in Matlab, and since the decision-maker has more than one goal, so a mathematical model of goal programming was create, which aims to achieve two goals, the first is to reduce the total production costs of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) and th

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 18 2021
Journal Name
Materials Science And Engineering
Properties of engineered cementitious composite concrete (bendable concrete) produced using Portland limestone cement
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Bendable concrete, also known as Engineered Cementitious Composite (ECC) is a type of ultra-ductile cementitious composites reinforced with fibres to control the width of cracks. It has the ability to enhance concrete flexibility by withstanding strains of 3% and higher. The properties of bendable concrete mixes (compressive strength, flexural strength, and drying shrinkage) are here assessed after the incorporation of supplementary cementitious materials, silica fume, polymer fibres, and the use of ordinary Portland cement (O.P.C) and Portland limestone cement (IL). Mixes with Portland limestone cement show lower drying shrinkage and lower compressive and flexural strength than mixes with ordinary Portland cement, due to the ratio o

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Suggested Model to audit the oil companies to achieve environmental control
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Oil sector is one of the most important sectors affecting the ecological balance, as activity contributes to the oil companies to influence their working environment, both during the oil exploration and extraction process or during transfer from one place to another process. We will try through this research put an environmental audit program proposal takes into account all the financial aspects, commitment and performance, according to the laws and regulations and agreements as well as relevant international standards, was based on research on the premise that the development of an environmental proposal auditing program that includes environmental controls on oil industry phases which helps reduce or minimize environmental pollutants B

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Uob
Effect of Irrigation Levels and Organic Matter in The Growth, Yield and its Quality for Chilli Pepper Under Organic Farming System
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Point of Care testing: The future of periodontal dis-ease diagnosis and monitoring
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Manual probing and periodontal charting are the gold standard for periodontal diagnosis that have been used in practice over a century. These methods are affordable and reliable but they are associated with some drawbacks that cannot be avoided. Among these issues is their reliance on operator’s skills, time-consuming and tedious procedure, lack sensitivity especially in cases of early bone loss, and causing discomfort to the patient. Availability of a wide range of biomarkers in the oral biofluids, dental biofilm, and tissues that potentially reflect the periodontal health and disease accurately encouraged their use as predictive/diagnostic/monitoring tools. Analysing biomarkers during care-giving to the patient using chairside kits i

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 30 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Flattening of the posterior slope of the articular eminence of completely edentulous patients compared to patients with maintained occlusion in relation to age using computed tomography
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Background: The posterior slope of the articular eminence of completely edentulous patients compared to patients with maintained occlusion shows significant flattening. This study aimed to correlate between the flattening of the posterior slope of the articular eminence, with dental status, age, genders, on both sides using computed tomography. Materials and Methods: The sample of the present study was a total of 117 Iraqi subjects, who admitted to the maxillofacial department at Al-Sadr Teaching Hospital in Al-Najaf city. The examination was performed on CT scanner; the eminence inclination was measured in two methods using sagittal section. Results: Clinically, the inclination of articular eminence was higher in edentulous subjects than i

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Design, Construction, and Control Tracking of Solar Thermal Concentrator by Using PLC in Erbil
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This paper demonstrates the construction designing analysis and control strategies for fully tracking concentrated solar thermal by using programmable logic control in the city of Erbil-Iraq. This work used the parabolic dish as a concentrated solar thermal. At the focal point, the collected form of energy is used for heating a (water) in the receiver, analyzing this prototype in real-time with two different shapes of the receiver and comparing the results. For tracking the parabolic dish, four light-dependent resistors are used to detect the sun's position in the sky so that the tracking system follows it to make the beam radiation perpendicular to the collector surface all of the time during the day for maximum solar p

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 15 2013
Journal Name
American Journal Of Health-system Pharmacy
Pharmacy in Iraq: History, current status, and future directions
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