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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research
Numerical Modeling of a Pile Group Subjected to Seismic Loading Using the Hypoplasticity Model
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Various simple and complicated models have been utilized to simulate the stress-strain behavior of the soil. These models are used in Finite Element Modeling (FEM) for geotechnical engineering applications and analysis of dynamic soil-structure interaction problems. These models either can't adequately describe some features, such as the strain-softening of dense sand, or they require several parameters that are difficult to gather by conventional laboratory testing. Furthermore, soils are not completely linearly elastic and perfectly plastic for the whole range of loads. Soil behavior is quite difficult to comprehend and exhibits a variety of behaviors under various circumstances. As a result, a more realistic constitutive model is

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 13 2012
Journal Name
Kut Journal For Economic And Administrative Sciences
Using Different Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Probability Death Density Function with Application
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In this paper, the maximum likelihood estimates for parameter ( ) of two parameter's Weibull are studied, as well as white estimators and (Bain & Antle) estimators, also Bayes estimator for scale parameter ( ), the simulation procedures are used to find the estimators and comparing between them using MSE. Also the application is done on the data for 20 patients suffering from a headache disease.

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Publication Date
Mon May 19 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Using dynamic Fuzzy programming to control the storage of some Department of Commerce stores
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In this research was to use the method of classic dynamic programming (CDP) and the method of fuzzy dynamic programming (FDP) to controlling the inventory in N periods and only one substance ,in order to minimize the total cost and determining the required quantity in warehouse rusafa principal of the ministry of commerce . A comparison was made between the two techniques، We found that the value of fuzzy total cost is less than that the value of classic total cost

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research (etasr)
Numerical Modeling of a Pile Group Subjected to Seismic Loading Using the Hypoplasticity Model
...Show More Authors

Various simple and complicated models have been utilized to simulate the stress-strain behavior of the soil. These models are used in Finite Element Modeling (FEM) for geotechnical engineering applications and analysis of dynamic soil-structure interaction problems. These models either can't adequately describe some features, such as the strain-softening of dense sand, or they require several parameters that are difficult to gather by conventional laboratory testing. Furthermore, soils are not completely linearly elastic and perfectly plastic for the whole range of loads. Soil behavior is quite difficult to comprehend and exhibits a variety of behaviors under various circumstances. As a result, a more realistic constitutive model is

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 05 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Phragmites australis(Iraqi plant) to remove the Lead (II) Ions form Aqueous solution.
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Lead remediation was achieved using simple cost, effective and eco-friendly way from industrial wastewater. Phragmitesaustralis (P.a) (Iraqi plant), was used as anovel biomaterial to remove lead ions from synthesized waste water. Different parameters which affected on adsorption processes were investigated like adsorbent dose, pH, contact time, and adsorbent particle size, to reach the optimized conditions (maximum adsorption). The adsorption of Pb (?) on (P.a) involved fast and slow process as a mechanism steps according to obey two theoretical adsorption isotherms; Langmuir and Freundlich. The thermos dynamic adsorption parameters were evaluated also. The (?H) obtained positive value that meanes adsorption of lead ions was an endothermic

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Publication Date
Tue May 16 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Experimental Investigation Utilizing Thermal Image Technique to the Heat Transfer Enhancement Using Oscillated Fins
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Heat transfer around a flat plate fin integrated with piezoelectric actuator used as oscillated fin in laminar flow has been studied experimentally utilizing thermal image camera. This study is performed
for fixed and oscillated single and triple fins. Different substrate-fin models have been tested, using fins of (35mm and 50mm) height, two sets of triple fins of (3mm and 6mm) spacing and three frequencies
applied to piezoelectric actuator (5, 30 and 50HZ). All tests are carried out for (0.5 m/s and 3m/s) in subsonic open type wind tunnel to evaluate temperature distribution, local and average Nusselt number (Nu) along the fin. It is observed, that the heat transfer enhancement with oscillation is significant compared to without o

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 05 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Phragmites australis(Iraqi plant) to remove the Lead (II) Ions form Aqueous solution.
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Lead remediation was achieved using simple cost, effective and eco-friendly way from industrial wastewater. Phragmitesaustralis (P.a) (Iraqi plant), was used as anovel biomaterial to remove lead ions from synthesized waste water. Different parameters which affected on adsorption processes were investigated like adsorbent dose, pH, contact time, and adsorbent particle size, to reach the optimized conditions (maximum adsorption). The adsorption of Pb (?) on (P.a) involved fast and slow process as a mechanism steps according to obey two theoretical adsorption isotherms; Langmuir and Freundlich. The thermos dynamic adsorption parameters were evaluated also. The (?H) obtained positive value that meanes adsorption of lead ions was an endothermic

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Publication Date
Mon May 19 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal For Administrative Sciences
Using the Statistical Analysis to study the important reasons of the pollution in the Iraqi Marshlands Areas
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The need for detection and investigation of the causes of pollution of the marshes and submit a statistical study evaluated accurately and submitted to the competent authorities and to achieve this goal was used to analyze the factorial analysis and then obtained the results from this analysis from a sample selected from marsh water pollutants which they were: (Electrical Conductivity: EC, Power of Hydrogen: PH, Temperature: T, Turbidity: TU, Total Dissolved Solids: TDS, Dissolved Oxygen: DO). The size of sample (44) sites has been withdrawn and examined in the laboratories of the Iraqi Ministry of Environment. By illustrating SPSS program) the results had been obtained. The most important recommendation was to increase the pumping of addit

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2013
Journal Name
Uob
Effect of Irrigation Levels and Organic Matter in The Growth, Yield and its Quality for Chilli Pepper Under Organic Farming System
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Most Influential Factor on the Stumble and Failure of the governmental Projects
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The governmental projects are considers the prevailing in Iraq, as most of the projects implemented by the Government, the major role played by governmental projects in the provision of services to citizens and improve the economic situation in the country in general, in addition to the huge number of these projects implemented by the governmental organizations and the large failure rates of it , and because of the fact that these projects are stumbled  before they reach the stage of failure, The aim of this research to identify the main factors for the stumble projects in addition to identifying the most influential factor on the causes and consequences of it , like (cost overruns , time overruns , delay and scope

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