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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 02 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Nonlinear Analysis And Applications
Using the wavelet analysis to estimate the nonparametric regression model in the presence of associated errors
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Abstract The wavelet shrink estimator is an attractive technique when estimating the nonparametric regression functions, but it is very sensitive in the case of a correlation in errors. In this research, a polynomial model of low degree was used for the purpose of addressing the boundary problem in the wavelet reduction in addition to using flexible threshold values in the case of Correlation in errors as it deals with those transactions at each level separately, unlike the comprehensive threshold values that deal with all levels simultaneously, as (Visushrink) methods, (False Discovery Rate) method, (Improvement Thresholding) and (Sureshrink method), as the study was conducted on real monthly data represented in the rates of theft crimes f

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 29 2020
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology
The Reliability of Orthodontic Treatment, According to the Needs of Patients Using the Dental Aesthetic Index
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Abstract Objectives: Malocclusion was and remains one of the most common problems which affects the psyche and social status of the individual, so the estimation of the malocclusion severity and needs a percentage of orthodontic treatment of Iraqi patients is the aim of this study. Method: A randomly selected 150 pairs of study models (48 male and 102 female) were involved in this study for patients attending an orthodontic clinic at College of Dentistry/ University of Baghdad seeking for treatment. The DAI scores were collected according to WHO guidelines directly from the study model with a digital caliper, score was calculated using the regression equation of 10 occlusal traits. The dental casts were classified into four groups to determ

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 14 2024
Journal Name
مجلة دراسات وبحوث التربية الرياضية
Construction and Validation of a Cognitive Engagement Scale and Its Relationship with Ball Movement Sequence Performance in Rhythmic Gymnastics
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The research aims to: build and record a measure of cognitive participation among second-year female students at the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, University of Baghdad. The researchers used the descriptive approach in the survey style for the research sample. The sample was selected from female students and divided into: (10) female students for the survey sample, and (80) female students for the construction and codification sample. The data were statistically analyzed by the researchers using SPSS, the T-test for independent and correlated samples, Pearson's simple correlation coefficient, Cronbach's alpha, Chi-square, and Spearman-Brown. They were recruited for the samples. The study concluded that constr

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Use of chickpea soaking water in dough fermentation and its effect on quality properties of loaf bread
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This study was carried out to investigate the possibility of chickpea soaked water as a substitute for yeast in dough fermentation and its effects on sensory properties of the laboratory loaf bread. Chickpea was soaked for 24,48 and 72 hours at room temperature and used in proportion with or without yeast in dough fermentation . The results revealed that , as the percentage of soaked chickpea water substitution increased, the volume of the produced loaf bread decreased as compared with the control treatment (only yeast ).Best results were obtained by using soaked chickpea water for 24 hours in proportion of 1:1 soaked chickpea water : yeast regarding the sensory properties ,volume and leavening of the loaf bread.
Keywords: chickpea so

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Publication Date
Wed May 18 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE APPLICITIONS OF JUST IN TIME PRODUCTION AND ITS ROLE ON THE COMPONENTS OF MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEM: AN APPLIED STUDY IN ALMANSOUR OUR STATE COMPANY FOR CONSTRUCTIONAL CONTRACTS.: THE APPLICITIONS OF JUST IN TIME PRODUCTION AND ITS ROLE ON THE COMPONENTS OF MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEM: AN APPLIED STUDY IN ALMANSOUR OUR STATE COMPANY FOR CONSTRUCTIONAL CONTRACTS.
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Live the present companies in a competitive business environment going on and try to achieve excellence in their industry through the marketing of their products and achieve greater market share as possible to ensure its continued existence, and perhaps the concept of time production, which confirms, in essence, on the need to reduce inventory to a minimum in the production process as well as the concept of the marketing information system which asserts, in essence, to document all the events that are related to the marketing of the product provided by the production process, together constitute the subject deserves research and investigation as they have raised well-known in the fields of production management and marketing management.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Environmental Education and her role to protect an Environment
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Environmental education is considered as process of getting Humans in communication with this environment and all its various resources. such process requires acquiring knowledge about the environment that com help humans understand their correlative relations with the environmental elements on one hand and among the environmental elements themselves on the other . Besides, such a process requires developing human skills that help them participate in developing environmental circumstances. Therefore environmental education is responsible for perspective and cultural development that governs human behavior. Regarding their environment and stimulating tendencies and interests towards the environment , let alone helping humans acquire the c

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A Dystopian Future: Social Oppression and Religious Extremism in Margaret Atwood's The Handmaid's Tale
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Many literary research papers have dealt with the work of Margaret Atwood's The Handmaid's Tale (1985) as a feminist work. However, nearly few studies combine social oppression with religious extremism. To bridge this gap, the present study aims at exploring the use of totalitarian theocracy of terror to oppress its citizens in the name of religion. In other words, it explicates the way religion is used to brutally suppress and exploit people in general and vulnerable women in particular. To meet this objective, the study adopted the qualitative descriptive method to describe how religion is used as a contradictory controlling means in Gilead discourse. It also adopted the Foucault theory in analyzing the data of the study, illu

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Addition of Some Primary and Secondary Amines to Graphene Oxide, and Studying Their Effect on Increasing its Electrical Properties
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Previously many properties of graphene oxide in the field of medicine, biological environment and in the field of energy have been studied. This diversity in properties is due to the possibility of modification on the composition of this Nano compound, where the Graphene oxide is capable of more modification via addition other functional groups on its surface or at the edges of the sheet. The reason for this modification possibility is that the Sp3 hybridization (tetrahedral structure) of the carbon atoms in graphene oxide, and it contains many oxygenic functional groups that are able to reac with other groups. In this research the effect of addition of some amine compounds on electrical properties of graphene oxide has been studied by the

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Suggested Model to audit the oil companies to achieve environmental control
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Oil sector is one of the most important sectors affecting the ecological balance, as activity contributes to the oil companies to influence their working environment, both during the oil exploration and extraction process or during transfer from one place to another process. We will try through this research put an environmental audit program proposal takes into account all the financial aspects, commitment and performance, according to the laws and regulations and agreements as well as relevant international standards, was based on research on the premise that the development of an environmental proposal auditing program that includes environmental controls on oil industry phases which helps reduce or minimize environmental pollutants B

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Epidemiology of Human Brucellosis among Populations in Iraq's Provinces in 2015
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Background: Brucellosis (Malta fever) is one of the zoonotic diseases that endemic in all the world, this disease has a history from 1937 in Iraq when the microorganism was first isolated via an Iraqi clinician.Objective: To demonstrate brucellosis infection among Iraqi provinces and reveal relationship between Brucellosis with seasons, residence place, gender and age of the patients. In addition to diagnosis of brucellosis from patients in Baghdad province suspects of infection by serological methods (Rose Bengal test) and culture method in diagnosis of brucellosis in human.Patients and Methods: This cross sectional study was conducted at Iraqi hospitals in different Iraqi provinces. The blood sample (serum) was obtained from 1825

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