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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The trend to Joint Audit as an approach to Improve the Financial Reports Quality - An Applied Study –
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This study aimed at identifying the trend to applying the Joint Audit as an approach to improve the financial reports quality with all their characteristics (Relevance, Reliability, Comparability, Consistency), as well as enclose the difficulties that faced the auditors in the Gaza Strip in implementing the Joint Audit. In order to achieve the study aims, a measure was used to identify the trend to apply the Joint Audit and it was distributed to the study sample which is consisting of (119) individuals and retrieved thereof (99) valid for analysis, approximately (83.2%), (69) of them are Auditors, (30) financial managers and accountants. The researcher used the analytical descriptive method, and after analyzing the results, the s

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2017
Journal Name
Iosr Journal Of Agriculture And Veterinary Science
Effect of Supplementing Different Levels of Organic Selenium & Inorganic Selenium to Broiler Breeder Diet on Production Performance, Selenium Concentration in Plasma and Egg
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This study was carried out at the Poultry Research Station belong to state Board of Agricultural Research, Ministry of Agriculture, Abu Ghraib. The duration of this study was from 28 November 2013 to 15 May 2014 to evaluate the effect of supplementation different levels of organic selenium(Se-yeast) and inorganic selenium (Selenium selenite) on some productive performances of broiler breeder and selenium levels in plasma ,egg (yolk,albumin). The study included 336 female broiler breeder and 28 males (Ross 308 and arbor acres), 42 weeks old were randomly distributed to 7 dietary treatments experiment with 2 replicates / treatment (24 females and 2 male birds /replicate). The duration of the experiment was 24 weeks, and treatments were as the

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ij
Mathematical Models for Predicting of Organic and Inorganic Pollutants in Diyala River Using AnalysisNeural Network
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Diyala river is the most important tributaries in Iraq, this river suffering from pollution, therefore, this research aimed to predict organic pollutants that represented by biological oxygen demand BOD, and inorganic pollutants that represented by total dissolved solids TDS for Diyala river in Iraq, the data used in this research were collected for the period from 2011-2016 for the last station in the river known as D17, before the river meeting Tigris river in Baghdad city. Analysis Neural Network ANN was used in order to find the mathematical models, the parameters used to predict BOD were seven parameters EC, Alk, Cl, K, TH, NO3, DO, after removing the less importance parameters. While the parameters that used to predict TDS were fourte

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 03 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Civil Engineering And Technology (ijciet)
Condition Prediction Models of Deteriorated Trunk Sewer Using Multinomial Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network
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Sewer systems are used to convey sewage and/or storm water to sewage treatment plants for disposal by a network of buried sewer pipes, gutters, manholes and pits. Unfortunately, the sewer pipe deteriorates with time leading to the collapsing of the pipe with traffic disruption or clogging of the pipe causing flooding and environmental pollution. Thus, the management and maintenance of the buried pipes are important tasks that require information about the changes of the current and future sewer pipes conditions. In this research, the study was carried on in Baghdad, Iraq and two deteriorations model's multinomial logistic regression and neural network deterioration model NNDM are used to predict sewers future conditions. The results of the

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Engineering
Esterification Reaction Kinetics Using Ion Exchange Resin Catalyst by Pseudo-Homogenous and Eley-Ridel Models
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This work deals with kinetics and chemical equilibrium studies of esterification reaction of ethanol with acetic acid. The esterification reaction was catalyzed by an acidic ion exchange resin (Amberlyst- 15) using a batch stirred tank reactor. The pseudo-homogenous and Eley-Rideal models were successfully fitted with experimental data. At first, Eley-Rideal model was examined for heterogeneous esterification of acetic acid and ethanol. The pseudo-homogenous model was investigated with a power-law model. The apparent reaction order was determined to be (0.88) for Ethanol and (0.92) for acetic acid with a correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.981 and 0.988, respectively. The reaction order was determined to be 4.1087x10-3 L0.8/(mol0.8.min) with

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Performance Evaluation of Al-Karkh Water Treatment Plant Using Model-driven and Data-Driven Models
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Abstract<p>There is a great operational risk to control the day-to-day management in water treatment plants, so water companies are looking for solutions to predict how the treatment processes may be improved due to the increased pressure to remain competitive. This study focused on the mathematical modeling of water treatment processes with the primary motivation to provide tools that can be used to predict the performance of the treatment to enable better control of uncertainty and risk. This research included choosing the most important variables affecting quality standards using the correlation test. According to this test, it was found that the important parameters of raw water: Total Hardn</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Ali Al Bazergan and its impact on the intellectual, political and administrative in Iraq 1887-1958 Historical Study
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The historical person study as a personality to the AL- Bazargan, one of the important
studies, is the shed light on the character had an effect of the political life in Iraq, an important
historical era involved many events, coincided with a national and historical by this personal
at the events successive positions that stage of the history of Iraq, especially if we know,
strongly his loyalty to the homeland and the earth, and intense hatred for any occupation or
colonization desecrate the land...
This was evident during his participation and his supervisor in 1920 liberal revolution
against the British occupation, and urged the need for adherence to the principles of
independence, and the emphasis on the nation

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 06 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Management using the Six Sigma approach to cost rationalization of activities : Application in the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory
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The textile industries play a prominent role in reviving the national economy, but they are currently suffering from several problems, including the high costs of their activities, the low quality of their production processes, and accordingly, the hexagonal diffraction approach came to help analyze production activities to determine which of them are the most expensive and do not have a benefit or cost greater than Its benefit as a result of waste and losses that accompany its implementation. And by applying to the Iraqi mechanical carpet factory, the research reached several conclusions, the most important of which is the presence of several sources of waste and loss, such as activities and operations that do not add value, whi

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 10 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Quality standards and innovation in television production production processes in various fields
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And the necessity for the progress of modern societies Because the scientific and objective characteristics that characterize modern societies and distinguish them from traditional societies, Is represented by the extent of its innovative achievements in the theoretical, applied and material scientific and spiritual fields. It should be noted that quality and innovation in modern societies is based on two main pillars, Standard measures for measuring and evaluating innovations to achieve their high quality, And the dissemination of the culture of innovation to spread awareness of the importance and conditions of success, and this is done by the advanced industrial countries, However, despite the great disparity between developed industri

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Tribal separation and its relation to the organization of the community from the point of view of tribal sheikhs Field study in the City of Baghdad Sadr City model))
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One of topics that occupied alarge area  in Iraqi  society  at the moment is the  issue( of tribal  separation and its  relation  to the organization of  the community ) so we see in the civilizations and heritage  of each community aset  of provisions and laws that take the form of status   customary or religious it is indicative of the great interest in Iraqi society in cotrolling the behavior of individuals to comply with values and social laws and become their behavior is consistent with the behavior of the total and adhere to the social values and be productive individuals within  the subject and this can only be  achieved  from the social co

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