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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study the Characteristic of the Coupling Parameter ( ? ) in Dusty Plasma by Computer modeling
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Computer modeling has been used to investing the Coulomb coupling parameter ?. The effects of the structure parameter K, grain charge Z, plasma density N, temperature dust grain Td, on the Coulomb coupling parameter had been studied. It was seen that the ? was increasing with increasing Z and N, and decrease with increasing K and T. Also the critical value of ? that the phase transfer of the plasma state from liquid to solid was studied.

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Mathematical Modeling of a Hollow Fiber Module Used in Pressure-Retarded Osmosis Process
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   Pressure retarded osmosis (PRO) can be considered as one of the methods for utilizing osmotic power, which is a membrane-based technology. Mathematical modeling plays an essential part in the development and optimization of PRO energy-generating systems. In this research, a mathematical model was developed for the hollow fiber module to predict the power density and the permeate water flux theoretically. Sodium chloride solution was employed as the feed and draw solution. Different operating parameters, draw solution concentration (1 and 2 M), the flow rate of draw solution (2, 3, and 4 L/min), and applied hydraulic pressure difference (0 - 90 bar) was used to evaluate the performance of PRO process of a hollow fiber module. The eff

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Numerical Modeling of Water Movement from Buried Vertical Ceramic Pipes through Coarse Soils
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Problem of water scarcity is becoming common in many parts of the world.  Thus to overcome this problem proper management of water and an efficient irrigation systems are needed.  Irrigation with buried vertical ceramic pipe is known as a very effective in management of irrigation water.  The two- dimensional transient flow of water from a buried vertical ceramic pipe through homogenous porous media is simulated numerically using the software HYDRUS/2D to predict empirical formulas that describe the predicted results accurately.   Different values of pipe lengths and hydraulic conductivity were selected.  In addition, different values of initial volumetric soil water content were assumed in this simulation a

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 25 2022
Journal Name
Knowledge And Information Systems
Unsupervised model for aspect categorization and implicit aspect extraction
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People’s ability to quickly convey their thoughts, or opinions, on various services or items has improved as Web 2.0 has evolved. This is to look at the public perceptions expressed in the reviews. Aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA) deemed to receive a set of texts (e.g., product reviews or online reviews) and identify the opinion-target (aspect) within each review. Contemporary aspect-based sentiment analysis systems, like the aspect categorization, rely predominantly on lexicon-based, or manually labelled seeds that is being incorporated into the topic models. And using either handcrafted rules or pre-labelled clues for performing implicit aspect detection. These constraints are restricted to a particular domain or language which is

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Estimation Curve Numbers using GIS and Hec-GeoHMS Model
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Recently, the development and application of the hydrological models based on Geographical Information System (GIS) has increased around the world. One of the most important applications of GIS is mapping the Curve Number (CN) of a catchment. In this research, three softwares, such as an ArcView GIS 9.3 with ArcInfo, Arc Hydro Tool and Geospatial Hydrologic Modeling Extension (Hec-GeoHMS) model for ArcView GIS 9.3, were used to calculate CN of (19210 ha) Salt Creek watershed (SC) which is located in Osage County, Oklahoma, USA. Multi layers were combined and examined using the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcMap 2009. These layers are soil layer (Soil Survey Geographic SSURGO), 30 m x 30 m resolution of Digital Elevati

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Sport Science Technology And Physical Activities
The effect of using Daniel's model and Driver’s model in learning a kinetic chain on the uneven bars in the artistic gymnastics for female students
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The aim of this study to identity using Daniel's model and Driver’s model in learning a kinetic chain on the uneven bars in the artistic gymnastics for female students. The researchers used the experimental method to design equivalent groups with a preand post-test, and the research community was identified with the students of the third stage in the college for the academic year 2020-2021 .The subject was, (3) class were randomly selected, so (30) students distributed into (3) groups). has been conducted pretesting after implementation of the curriculum for (4) weeks and used the statistical bag of social sciences(SPSS)to process the results of the research and a set of conclusions was reached, the most important of which is t

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Numerical Solution to Recover Time-dependent Coefficient and Free Boundary from Nonlocal and Stefan Type Overdetermination Conditions in Heat Equation
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This paper investigates the recovery for time-dependent coefficient and free boundary for heat equation. They are considered under mass/energy specification and Stefan conditions. The main issue with this problem is that the solution is unstable and sensitive to small contamination of noise in the input data. The Crank-Nicolson finite difference method (FDM) is utilized to solve the direct problem, whilst the inverse problem is viewed as a nonlinear optimization problem. The latter problem is solved numerically using the routine optimization toolbox lsqnonlin from MATLAB. Consequently, the Tikhonov regularization method is used in order to gain stable solutions. The results were compared with their exact solution and tested via

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 30 2007
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Effect of Sintering Temperature and Soaking Time on the physical and Dielectric Properties of BaTiO3 for Different Ba/Ti Ratio
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Recent research has examined the improvement of physical and dielectric properties of BaTiO3 ceramic material by small addition of excess TiO2 or BaCO3. The prepared samples sintered at different temperatures and varying soaking time. The results show that increasing the sintering temperature within 1350°C and soaking time of 10 hrs give better electrical and physical properties, which indicate the reaction is complete at higher temperature and period.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Applied Energy
Novel mathematical modeling, performance analysis, and design charts for the typical hybrid photovoltaic/phase-change material (PV/PCM) system
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Seasonal variation and modeling of disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water distribution systems of Wassit Province Southeast Iraq
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