Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The study aims at finding out the effect of the lead time strategy on the first intermediate class pupils' achievement in geography The partial experimental design of two groups, experimental and control, with pre-post tests is used. The sample is represented in (73) female pupils. The sample is divided into two groups (37) experimental group and (36) control one. The sam ple is selected from first intermediate class pupils ( Al Batol intermediate school for girls) Baghdad Al-karkh-3, for academic year 2015-2016 The researcher has equalized the two groups in several variables: the previous achievement tests, intelligence, age in months, the scores of geography test of first course
The accurate 3-D coordinate's measurements of the global positioning systems are essential in many fields and applications. The GPS has numerous applications such as: Frequency Counters, Geographic Information Systems, Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems, Car Navigation Systems, Emergency Systems, Aviations, Astronomical Pointing Control, and Atmospheric Sounding using GPS signals, tracking of wild animals, GPS Aid for the Blind, Recorded Position Information, Airborne Gravimetry and other uses. In this paper, the RTK DGPS mode has been used to create precise 3-D coordinates values for four rover stations in Baghdad university camp. The HiPer-II Receiver of global positioning system was used to navigate the coordinate value. The results wil
... Show More<p><span>This research deals with the feasibility of a mobile robot to navigate and discover its location at unknown environments, and then constructing maps of these navigated environments for future usage. In this work, we proposed a modified Extended Kalman Filter- Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (EKF-SLAM) technique which was implemented for different unknown environments containing a different number of landmarks. Then, the detectable landmarks will play an important role in controlling the overall navigation process and EKF-SLAM technique’s performance. MATLAB simulation results of the EKF-SLAM technique come with better performance as compared with an odometry approach performance in terms of measuring the
... Show MoreAbstract:-
The approach maintenance and replacement one of techniques of operations research whom cares of the failure experienced by a lot of production lines which consist of a set of machines and equipment, which in turn exposed to the failure or work stoppages over the lifetime, which requires reducing the working time of these machines or equipment below what can or conuct maintenance process once in a while or a replacement for one part of the machine or replace one of the machines in production lines. In this research is the study of the failure s that occur in some parts of one of the machines for the General Company for Vege
... Show MoreIn this work, the performance of single-mode optical fibers (SMFs) for ultraviolet (UV) radiation monitoring and dosimetry applications is presented. In particular, this work will focus on the Radiation-Induced Absorption (RIA) phenomena in the Near-Infrared domain (NIR). Such phenomena play a very important role in the sensing mechanism for SMF. Single mode fibers with a diameter of 50 µm were used for this purpose. These fibers were dipped into germanium (Ge) solution with different concentrations (1, 3, and 5 wt%) to produce the sensing part of the sensor. For all optical fiber sensors under investigation, the results indicated the dependence of the RIA on the applied UV radiation energy. Also, a redshi
... Show MoreThis paper presents a newly developed method with new algorithms to find the numerical solution of nth-order state-space equations (SSE) of linear continuous-time control system by using block method. The algorithms have been written in Matlab language. The state-space equation is the modern representation to the analysis of continuous-time system. It was treated numerically to the single-input-single-output (SISO) systems as well as multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) systems by using fourth-order-six-steps block method. We show that it is possible to find the output values of the state-space method using block method. Comparison between the numerical and exact results has been given for some numerical examples for solving different type
... Show MoreIn this study many specimen s were prepared from 2024-T3 Aluminum alloy for corrosion test by the dimensions of (15*15*3) mm according to ASTM G71-31 and then subjected to shot peening process at different time (15, 30, 45) minutes using steel ball having a diameter of 2.75 mm and Rockwell Hardness of 55RC to induce compressive residual stress which were measured using X-Ray diffraction method, surface roughness and hardness were tested before and after peening. Electrochemical corrosion test by Tafel extrapolation method was carried out in an environment of 3 .5% NaCl solutions (sea water) where Corrosion rate calculated using Tafle equation.
The obtained results show a favorable influence of SP treatment
... Show More