Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The present article is devoted to the analysis of Arabic phraseological units with a component hand, selected by continuous sampling from the “Training Russian-Arabic phraseological dictionary: about 900 phraseological units” by G. L. Permyakov. Arabic phraseological units with a component hand are modeled as invariant situations (by logical-semiotic models) and figurative statements are expressed by phraseological variants (according to the figurative characteristic of the hand component). The artical focuses on the fact that somatism in Arabic phraseology has a symbolic and symbolic nature, marking various situations of Arabs' behavior, their actions, deeds, rituals, emotional and psychological states, etiquette, in
... Show MoreA seemingly uncorrelated regression (SUR) model is a special case of multivariate models, in which the error terms in these equations are contemporaneously related. The method estimator (GLS) is efficient because it takes into account the covariance structure of errors, but it is also very sensitive to outliers. The robust SUR estimator can dealing outliers. We propose two robust methods for calculating the estimator, which are (S-Estimations, and FastSUR). We find that it significantly improved the quality of SUR model estimates. In addition, the results gave the FastSUR method superiority over the S method in dealing with outliers contained in the data set, as it has lower (MSE and RMSE) and higher (R-Squared and R-Square Adjus
... Show MoreThis study aimed at evaluating the torsional capacity of reinforced concrete (RC) beams externally wrapped with fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials. An analytical model was described and used as a new computational procedure based on the softened truss model (STM) to predict the torsional behavior of RC beams strengthened with FRP. The proposed analytical model was validated with the existing experimental data for rectangular sections strengthened with FRP materials and considering torque-twist relationship and crack pattern at failure. The confined concrete behavior, in the case of FRP wrapping, was considered in the constitutive laws of concrete in the model. Then, an efficient algorithm was developed in MATLAB environment t
... Show MoreThis paper presents an analytical study for the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flow of a generalized Burgers’ fluid in an annular pipe. Closed from solutions for velocity is obtained by using finite Hankel transform and discrete Laplace transform of the sequential fractional derivatives. Finally, the figures are plotted to show the effects of different parameters on the velocity profile.
The variety of ideas and freedom of expression among the authors who are looking for everything new that serves the goals of musical and aesthetic expression, which calls for the use of traditional musical instruments with the great composition of musical instruments known as the orchestra represents a great challenge in several aspects. The incompetence of some of these instruments or limited capabilities or its costly method of performance sometimes forbids its use permanently in this great composition. It was necessary to have some problems facing the composer and the player on the one hand and the recipient on the other hand, who must be looking for perfection. Among those instruments that are used regularly in the works of the orche
... Show MoreLead-acid batteries have been used increasingly in recent years in solar power systems, especially in homes and small businesses, due to their cheapness and advanced development in manufacturing them. However, these batteries have low voltages and low capacities, to increase voltage and capacities, they need to be connected in series and parallel. Whether they are connected in series or parallel, their voltages and capacities must be equal otherwise the quality of service will be degraded. The fact that these different voltages are inherent in their manufacturing, but these unbalanced voltages can be controlled. Using a switched capacitor is a method that was used in many methods for balancing voltages, but their respons
... Show MoreThe research studied and analyzed the hybrid parallel-series systems of asymmetrical components by applying different experiments of simulations used to estimate the reliability function of those systems through the use of the maximum likelihood method as well as the Bayes standard method via both symmetrical and asymmetrical loss functions following Rayleigh distribution and Informative Prior distribution. The simulation experiments included different sizes of samples and default parameters which were then compared with one another depending on Square Error averages. Following that was the application of Bayes standard method by the Entropy Loss function that proved successful throughout the experimental side in finding the reliability fun
... Show MoreThe behavior and shear strength of full-scale (T-section) reinforced concrete deep beams, designed according to the strut-and-tie approach of ACI Code-19 specifications, with various large web openings were investigated in this paper. A total of 7 deep beam specimens with identical shear span-to-depth ratios have been tested under mid-span concentrated load applied monotonically until beam failure. The main variables studied were the effects of width and depth of the web openings on deep beam performance. Experimental data results were calibrated with the strut-and-tie approach, adopted by ACI 318-19 code for the design of deep beams. The provided strut-and-tie design model in ACI 318-19 code provision was assessed and found to be u
... Show MoreAbstract
The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he
... Show More