Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
In this paper, the satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO) with atmospheric drag perturbation have been studied, where Newton Raphson method to solve Kepler equation for elliptical orbit (i=63 , e = 0.1and 0.5, Ω =30 , ω =100 ) using a new modified model. Equation of motion solved using 4th order Rang Kutta method to determine the position and velocity component which were used to calculate new orbital elements after time step ) for heights (100, 200, 500 km) with (A/m) =0.00566 m2/kg. The results showed that all orbital elements are varies with time, where (a, e, ω, Ω) are increased while (i and M) are decreased its values during 100 rotations.The satellite will fall to earth faster at the lower height and width using big values for ecce
... Show MoreThe research topic is summarized in the importance of studying the measuring the extent of the university youth’s exposure in the Emirati Society to those series and the resulting achieved satisfaction. The most important results and recommendations of the study are as follows: a high rate of the respondents’, sample individuals, exposure to the dubbed Turkish series since it is evident that almost three-fourths of the study individuals watch the dubbed Turkish series,.”. The most significant positive aspects of the dubbed Turkish series are: “they focus on the most important tourist attractions in Turkey” and “ improving the audience›s knowledge and information on the traditions of the Turkish society”. The most apparent
... Show MoreIn this paper, we establish the conditions of the occurrence of the local bifurcations, such as saddle node, transcritical and pitchfork, of all equilibrium points of an eco-epidemiological model consisting of a prey-predator model with SI (susceptible-infected) epidemic diseases in prey population only and a refuge-stage structure in the predators. It is observed that there is a transcritical bifurcation near the axial and free predator equilibrium points, near disease-free equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation and near positive (coexistence) equilibrium point is a saddle-node bifurcation, a transcritical bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Further investigations for Hopf bifurcation near coexistence equilibrium point are
... Show MoreIn this article, a continuous terminal sliding mode control algorithm is proposed for servo motor systems. A novel full-order terminal sliding mode surface is proposed based on the bilimit homogeneous property, such that the sliding motion is finite-time stable independent of the system’s initial condition. A new continuous terminal sliding mode control algorithm is proposed to guarantee that the system states reach the sliding surface in finitetime. Not only the robustness is guaranteed by the proposed controller but also the continuity makes the control algorithm more suitable for the servo mechanical systems. Finally, a numerical example is presented to depict the advantages of the proposed control algorithm. An application in the rota
... Show MoreIn this research, we studied the multiple linear regression models for two variables in the presence of the autocorrelation problem for the error term observations and when the error is distributed with general logistic distribution. The auto regression model is involved in the studying and analyzing of the relationship between the variables, and through this relationship, the forecasting is completed with the variables as values. A simulation technique is used for comparison methods depending on the mean square error criteria in where the estimation methods that were used are (Generalized Least Squares, M Robust, and Laplace), and for different sizes of samples (20, 40, 60, 80, 100, 120). The M robust method is demonstrated the best metho
... Show MoreIn this research, we studied the multiple linear regression models for two variables in the presence of the autocorrelation problem for the error term observations and when the error is distributed with general logistic distribution. The auto regression model is involved in the studying and analyzing of the relationship between the variables, and through this relationship, the forecasting is completed with the variables as values. A simulation technique is used for comparison methods depending
Many organizations today are interesting to implementing lean manufacturing principles that should enable them to eliminating the wastes to reducing a manufacturing lead time. This paper concentrates on increasing the competitive level of the company in globalization markets and improving of the productivity by reducing the manufacturing lead time. This will be by using the main tool of lean manufacturing which is value stream mapping (VSM) to identifying all the activities of manufacturing process (value and non-value added activities) to reducing elimination of wastes (non-value added activities) by converting a manufacturing system to pull instead of push by applying some of pull system strategies a
... Show MoreThe value of time out as a time not count of official time form the game like four periods and extra time also it considered a great interest if used well thru the game , the importance of this problem is not using well the time out and when the coach ask for time out and how to invest this time legally to make good results also there is no observing system as the researcher see gives the reality image that the coach is successful lead the game when he takes time out . The goals of research that knowing on numbers of time out for excellent teams in Iraq (first &second) stages and putting special inventory reverse reality of asking time out (positive &negative) on playing basketball , the hypothesis of research that tell the time out effect
... Show MoreABSTRACT— In primary teeth, root canal treatment is a time consuming and challenging procedure, particularly during the most important step in endodontic treatment which is the preparation of the canal. Pulpectomy is the treatment of choice in all the necrotic primary teeth. For better treatment protocol, advancing technology brought the rotary system to reduce the manual dexterity and improve the quality of treatment for pulpectomy. This study aimed to compare and assess the efficacy of cleaning and the time required for the instrumentation during the preparation of root canals of the primary molars using the rotary and the manual (conventional) systems. Thirty root canals of primary teeth were selected. These teeth submitted to a
... Show MoreFuzzy logic is used to solve the load flow and contingency analysis problems, so decreasing computing time and its the best selection instead of the traditional methods. The proposed method is very accurate with outstanding computation time, which made the fuzzy load flow (FLF) suitable for real time application for small- as well as large-scale power systems. In addition that, the FLF efficiently able to solve load flow problem of ill-conditioned power systems and contingency analysis. The FLF method using Gaussian membership function requires less number of iterations and less computing time than that required in the FLF method using triangular membership function. Using sparsity technique for the input Ybus sparse matrix data gi
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