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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 03 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Time-related salivary cathepsin B levels and periodontal status in different orthodontic force magnitudes
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Background: Biologically active substances, such as Cathepsin B (CAB) which is a lysosomalcystein protease may be involved in periodontal metabolism in the degradation of organic bone matrix containing collagen fibers in response to mechanical stress from orthodontic appliance. The aims of study were to determine and compare salivary levels of CAB, pH as well as clinical periodontal parameters (Plaque index PLI and gingival index GI) with different orthodontic force magnitudes at different time intervals. Materials and methods: A twenty-four patients (both gender) with age range (17-23) years had Angle's Class II division 1 malocclusion with GI >0.5 enrolled in this study. The level of salivary CAB and pH, in addition to the clinical period

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Comparison of Estimation Sonic Shear Wave Time Using Empirical Correlations and Artificial Neural Network
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Wellbore instability and sand production onset modeling are very affected by Sonic Shear Wave Time (SSW). In any field, SSW is not available for all wells due to the high cost of measuring. Many authors developed empirical correlations using information from selected worldwide fields for SSW prediction. Recently, researchers have used different Artificial Intelligence methods for estimating SSW. Three existing empirical correlations of Carroll, Freund, and Brocher are used to estimate SSW in this paper, while a fourth new empirical correlation is established. For comparing with the empirical correlation results, another study's Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was used. The same data t

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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2023
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Solving the multi-criteria: total completion time, total late work, and maximum earliness problem
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Within this research, The problem of scheduling jobs on a single machine is the subject of study to minimize the multi-criteria and multi-objective functions. The first problem, minimizing the multi-criteria, which include Total Completion Time, Total Late Work, and Maximum Earliness Time (∑𝐶𝑗, ∑𝑉𝑗, 𝐸𝑚𝑎𝑥), and the second problem, minimizing the multi-objective functions ∑𝐶𝑗 + ∑𝑉𝑗 +𝐸𝑚𝑎𝑥 are the problems at hand in this paper. In this study, a mathematical model is created to address the research problems, and some rules provide efficient (optimal) solutions to these problems. It has also been proven that each optimal solution for ∑𝐶𝑗 + ∑𝑉𝑗 + 𝐸𝑚𝑎𝑥 is an effic

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 08 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Information Technology And Computer Science
Adaptive Modeling of Urban Dynamics during Armada Event using CDRs
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Publication Date
Tue Sep 02 2014
Journal Name
Arab J Sci Eng
Modeling of Trichloroethylene Migration in Three-Dimensional Saturated Sandy Soil
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 16 2021
Journal Name
2021 4th International Conference On Energy Conservation And Efficiency (icece)
Finite Element Modeling Of Finned Double-Pass Solar Air Heaters
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
3D Facies Modeling of Mishrif Reservoir in Halfaya Oil Field
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     This research deals with the study of the types and distribution of petrographic microfacies and Paleoenvironments of Mishrif Formation in Halfaya oil field, to define specific sedimentary environments. These environments were identified by microscopic examination of 35 thin sections of cutting samples for well HF-9H as well as 150 thin sections of core and cutting samples for well HF-I. Depending on log interpretation of wells HF-1, HF-316, HF-109, IIF-115, and IIF-272, the sedimentary facies were traced vertically through the use of various logs by Petrel 2013 software in addition to previous studies. Microfacies analysis showed the occurrence of six main Paleoenvironments within Mishrif succession, represented

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Petroleum System Modeling of Halfaya Oil Field South of Iraq
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The petroleum system of Halfaya oil field shows that the hydrocarbon generation of these Formations such as Sha′uiba and Nahr Umr are immature and have generated few oil TR ≤ 50% which are neglected as compared to Formations below them which are very rich source rock. The Formations of Yamama, Ratawi and Sulaiy are mature with TR ≤ 100%. Other Formations such as Sargelu ,Najma,Zubair and Gotnia are with very high maturity with TR ≥ 100% and completely generated hydrocarbon and depleted after hydrocarbon are expelled and migrate to reservoir rock of structure traps and this study indicates that the major seals of Upper Jurassic are Gotnia and Allan Formations and of Middle Miocene is LowerFars fatha Formation.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
2019 12th International Conference On Developments In Esystems Engineering (dese)
Structural Modeling of Cross-Frame Behavior in Steel Girder Bridges
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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Improving Building Information Modeling (BIM) Implementation throughout the Construction Industry
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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is extensively used in the construction industry due to its benefits throughout the Project Life Cycle (PLC). BIM can simulate buildings throughout PLC, detect and resolve problems, and improve building visualization that contributes to the representation of actual project details in the construction stage. BIM contributes to project management promotion by detecting problems that lead to conflicts, cost overruns, and time delays. This work aims to implement an effective BIM for the Iraqi construction projects’ life cycle. The methodology used is a literature review to collect the most important factors contributing to the success of BIM implementation, interview the team of the Cent

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