Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
In this work, microbubble dispersed air flotation technique was applied for cadmium ions removal from wastewater aqueous solution. Experiments parameters such as pH (3, 4, 5, and 6), initial Cd(II) ions concentration (40, 80, and 120 mg/l) contact time( 2, 5, 10 , 15, and 20min), and surfactant (10, 20and 40mg/l) were studied in order to optimize the best conditions .The experimental results indicate that microbubbles were quite effective in removing cadmium ions and the anionic surfactant SDS was found to be more efficient than cationic CTAB in flotation process. 92.3% maximum removal efficiency achieved through 15min at pH 5, SDS surfactant concentration 20mg/l, flow rate250 cm3/min and at 40mg/l Cd(II) ions initial co
... Show MoreWe have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.
The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F
... Show MoreObjecte The study aims to test the effect of using the appropriate quantitative method of demand forecasting in improving the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product ( The study sample), One of the products of the Doura refinery (The study site), By testing a set of quantitative methods of demand forecasting using forecasting error measurements, and choosing the least faulty, most accurate and reliable method and adept it in the building chain.
Is the study of problem through a starting with the fol
... Show MoreWireless lietworking is· constantly improving, changing and
though ba ic principle is the same. ['nstead of using standard cables to transmit information fmm one point to another (qr more), it .uses radio signals. This paper presents .a case study considedng real-time remote
cqntroJ using Wireless UDP/JP-based networks,. The aim of-this werk is to
reduce real-time· remote control system based upon a simulatio.n model,
which can operate via general communication l"]etworks, whieh on bodies. modern wireles tcchnolqgy.
The first part includes· a brief
... Show MoreThis paper deals with novels for group of Iraqi Women novelists published in the time period 2003 – 2013, and the functioning of temporal anomalies in the Iraqi Women's narrative.
In general, the novel contains structural elements such as: the characters, events and the places, these elements must be collected by an artist creating a complete work of fiction. However the time dominates the other elements through progression and regaining called Time paradox, it has a modern critical importance because of its impact in highlighting of political, social and cultural events that make up the fictional environment which cast a shadow over other techniques. And that it is clear in the course of the narrative.
Often there is no well drilling without problems. The solution lies in managing and evaluating these problems and developing strategies to manage and scale them. Non-productive time (NPT) is one of the main causes of delayed drilling operations. Many events or possibilities can lead to a halt in drilling operations or a marginal decrease in the advancement of drilling, this is called (NPT). Reducing NPT has an important impact on the total expenditure, time and cost are considered one of the most important success factors in the oil industry. In other words, steps must be taken to investigate and eliminate loss of time, that is, unproductive time in the drilling rig in order to save time and cost and reduce wasted time. The data of
... Show MoreComputer vision is an emerging area with a huge number of applications. Identification of the fingertip is one of the major parts of those areas. Augmented reality and virtual reality are the most recent technological advancements that use fingertip identification. The interaction between computers and humans can be performed easily by this technique. Virtual reality, robotics, smart gaming are the main application domains of these fingertip detection techniques. Gesture recognition is one of the most fascinating fields of fingertip detection. Gestures are the easiest and productive methods of communication with regard to collaboration with the computer. This analysis examines the different studies done in the field of
... Show MoreIt is well- known that the distinguished scholastic journal is a crucial cornerstone, which contributes to the scientific integrity of a particular academic institution. The establishment of the Al-Kindy College of Medicine (AKCM), University of Baghdad, in 1998 urged the need to issue Al-Kindy College Medical Journal (KCMJ).