Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Long memory analysis is one of the most active areas in econometrics and time series where various methods have been introduced to identify and estimate the long memory parameter in partially integrated time series. One of the most common models used to represent time series that have a long memory is the ARFIMA (Auto Regressive Fractional Integration Moving Average Model) which diffs are a fractional number called the fractional parameter. To analyze and determine the ARFIMA model, the fractal parameter must be estimated. There are many methods for fractional parameter estimation. In this research, the estimation methods were divided into indirect methods, where the Hurst parameter is estimated fir
... Show MoreSorption is a key factor in removal of organic and inorganic contaminants from their aqueous solutions. In this study, we investigated the removal of Xylenol Orange tetrasodium salt (XOTS) from its aqueous solution by Bauxite (BXT) and cationic surfactant hexadecyltrimethyl ammonium bromide modified Bauxite (BXT-HDTMA) in batch experiments. The BXT and BXT-HDTMA were characterized using FTIR, and SEM techniques. Adsorption studies were performed at various parameters i.e. temperature, contact time, adsorbent weight, and pH. The modified BXT showed better maximum removal efficiency (98.6% at pH = 9.03) compared to natural Bauxite (75% at pH 2.27), suggesting that BXT-HDTMA is an excellent adsorbent for the removal of XOTS from water. The equ
... Show MoreMerging biometrics with cryptography has become more familiar and a great scientific field was born for researchers. Biometrics adds distinctive property to the security systems, due biometrics is unique and individual features for every person. In this study, a new method is presented for ciphering data based on fingerprint features. This research is done by addressing plaintext message based on positions of extracted minutiae from fingerprint into a generated random text file regardless the size of data. The proposed method can be explained in three scenarios. In the first scenario the message was used inside random text directly at positions of minutiae in the second scenario the message was encrypted with a choosen word before ciphering
... Show MoreThe Internet is providing vital communications between millions of individuals. It is also more and more utilized as one of the commerce tools; thus, security is of high importance for securing communications and protecting vital information. Cryptography algorithms are essential in the field of security. Brute force attacks are the major Data Encryption Standard attacks. This is the main reason that warranted the need to use the improved structure of the Data Encryption Standard algorithm. This paper proposes a new, improved structure for Data Encryption Standard to make it secure and immune to attacks. The improved structure of Data Encryption Standard was accomplished using standard Data Encryption Standard with a new way of two key gene
... Show MoreSecure data communication across networks is always threatened with intrusion and abuse. Network Intrusion Detection System (IDS) is a valuable tool for in-depth defense of computer networks. Most research and applications in the field of intrusion detection systems was built based on analysing the several datasets that contain the attacks types using the classification of batch learning machine. The present study presents the intrusion detection system based on Data Stream Classification. Several data stream algorithms were applied on CICIDS2017 datasets which contain several new types of attacks. The results were evaluated to choose the best algorithm that satisfies high accuracy and low computation time.
In the last two decades, networks had been changed according to the rapid changing in its requirements. The current Data Center Networks have large number of hosts (tens or thousands) with special needs of bandwidth as the cloud network and the multimedia content computing is increased. The conventional Data Center Networks (DCNs) are highlighted by the increased number of users and bandwidth requirements which in turn have many implementation limitations. The current networking devices with its control and forwarding planes coupling result in network architectures are not suitable for dynamic computing and storage needs. Software Defined networking (SDN) is introduced to change this notion of traditional networks by decoupling control and
... Show MoreThe purchase of a home and access to housing is one of the most important requirements for the life of the individual and the stability of living and the development of the prices of houses in general and in Baghdad in particular affected by several factors, including the basic area of the house, the age of the house, the neighborhood in which the housing is available and the basic services, Where the statistical model SSM model was used to model house prices over a period of time from 2000 to 2018 and forecast until 2025 The research is concerned with enhancing the importance of this model and describing it as a standard and important compared to the models used in the analysis of time series after obtaining the
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