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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 11 2021
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research
Evaluation of Rutting in Conventional and Rubberized Asphalt Mixes Using Numerical Modeling Under Repeated Loads
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This research aimed to predict the permanent deformation (rutting) in conventional and rubberized asphalt mixes under repeated load conditions using the Finite Element Method (FEM). A three-dimensional (3D) model was developed to simulate the Wheel Track Testing (WTT) loading. The study was conducted using the Abaqus/Standard finite element software. The pavement slab was simulated using a nonlinear creep (time-hardening) model at 40°C. The responses of the viscoplastic model under the influence of the trapezoidal amplitude of moving wheel loadings were determined for different speeds and numbers of cycles. The results indicated that a wheel speed increase from 0.5Km/h to 1.0Km/h decreased the rut depth by about 22% and 24% in conv

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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Emerging Technologies In Learning
The Effect of Cognitive Modeling in Mathematics Achievement and Creative Intelligence for High School Students
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 10 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Biomimetics, Biomaterials And Biomedical Engineering
Synthesis, Molecular Modeling, DNA Damage Interaction, and Antioxidant Potential of Hesperidin Loaded on Gold Nanoparticles
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The flavonoglycone hesperidin is recognized as a potent anti-inflammatory, anticancer, and antioxidant agent. However, its poor bioavailability is a crucial bottleneck regarding its therapeutic activity. Gold nanoparticles are widely used in drug delivery because of its unique properties that differ from bulk metal. Hesperidin loaded gold nanoparticles were successfully prepared to enhance its stability and bioactive potential, as well as to minimize the problems associated with its absorption. The free radical scavenging activities of hesperidin, gold nanoparticles, and hesperidin loaded gold nanoparticles were compared with that of Vitamin C and subsequently evaluated in vitro using 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl assay. The antioxi

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Revista Iberoamericana De Psicología Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte
EXPLORING THE MODELING OF SOCIO-TECHNICAL SYSTEMS IN THE FIELDS OF SPORT, ENGINEERING AND ECONOMICS
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Publication Date
Wed Jul 12 2023
Journal Name
Energies
Finite Time Disturbance Observer Based on Air Conditioning System Control Scheme
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A novel robust finite time disturbance observer (RFTDO) based on an independent output-finite time composite control (FTCC) scheme is proposed for an air conditioning-system temperature and humidity regulation. The variable air volume (VAV) of the system is represented by two first-order mathematical models for the temperature and humidity dynamics. In the temperature loop dynamics, a RFTDO temperature (RFTDO-T) and an FTCC temperature (FTCC-T) are designed to estimate and reject the lumped disturbances of the temperature subsystem. In the humidity loop, a robust output of the FTCC humidity (FTCC-H) and RFTDO humidity (RFTDO-H) are also designed to estimate and reject the lumped disturbances of the humidity subsystem. Based on Lyapunov theo

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Mehar method to change fuzzy cost of fuzzy linear model with practical application
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  Many production companies suffers from big losses because of  high production cost and low profits for several reasons, including raw materials high prices and no taxes impose on imported goods also consumer protection law deactivation and national product and customs law, so most of consumers buy imported goods because it is characterized by modern specifications and low prices.

  The production company also suffers from uncertainty in the cost, volume of production, sales, and availability of raw materials and workers number because they vary according to the seasons of the year.

  I had adopted in this research fuzzy linear program model with fuzzy figures

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Ieee/acm Transactions On Audio, Speech, And Language Processing
Underdetermined Convolutive Source Separation Using GEM-MU With Variational Approximated Optimum Model Order NMF2D
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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2012
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) Model of Intelligent Traffic Light System with Saving Power
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In this paper, a FPGA model of intelligent traffic light system with power saving was built. The intelligent traffic light system consists of sensors placed on the side's ends of the intersection to sense the presence or absence of vehicles. This system reduces the waiting time when the traffic light is red, through the transition from traffic light state to the other state, when the first state spends a lot of time, because there are no more vehicles. The proposed system is built using VHDL, simulated using Xilinx ISE 9.2i package, and implemented using Spartan-3A XC3S700A FPGA kit. Implementation and Simulation behavioral model results show that the proposed intelligent traffic light system model satisfies the specified operational req

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Publication Date
Thu May 18 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Genetic Algorithm Optimization Model for Central Marches Restoration Flows with Different Water Quality Scenarios
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A Genetic Algorithm optimization model is used in this study to find the optimum flow values of the Tigris river branches near Ammara city, which their water is to be used for central marshes restoration after mixing in Maissan River. These tributaries are Al-Areed, AlBittera and Al-Majar Al-Kabeer Rivers. The aim of this model is to enhance the water quality in Maissan River, hence provide acceptable water quality for marsh restoration. The model is applied for different water quality change scenarios ,i.e. , 10%,20% increase in EC,TDS and BOD. The model output are the optimum flow values for the three rivers while, the input data are monthly flows(1994-2011),monthly water requirements and water quality parameters (EC, TDS, BOD, DO and

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of Extreme Values on Streeter-Phleps Model Parameter Estimators With Application Abstract
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Abstract

   The extremes effects in parameters readings which are BOD (Biological Oxygen Demands) and DO(Dissolved Oxygen) can caused error estimating of the model’s parameters which used to determine the ratio of de oxygenation and re oxygenation of the dissolved oxygen(DO),then that will caused launch big amounts of the sewage pollution  water to the rivers and it’s turn is effect in negative form on the ecosystem life and the different types of the water wealth.

   As result of what mention before this research came to employees Streeter-Phleps model parameters estimation which are (Kd,Kr) the de oxygenation and re oxygenation ratios on respect

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