Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
In this paper a mathematical model that describes the flow of infectious disease in a population is proposed and studied. It is assumed that the disease divided the population into four classes: susceptible individuals (S), vaccinated individuals (V), infected individuals (I) and recover individuals (R). The impact of immigrants, vaccine and external sources of disease, on the dynamics of SVIRS epidemic model is studied. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are discussed. The local and global stability of the model is studied. The occurrence of local bifurcation as well as Hopf bifurcation in the model is investigated. Finally the global dynamics of the proposed model is studied numerically.
Finding communities of connected individuals in complex networks is challenging, yet crucial for understanding different real-world societies and their interactions. Recently attention has turned to discover the dynamics of such communities. However, detecting accurate community structures that evolve over time adds additional challenges. Almost all the state-of-the-art algorithms are designed based on seemingly the same principle while treating the problem as a coupled optimization model to simultaneously identify community structures and their evolution over time. Unlike all these studies, the current work aims to individually consider this three measures, i.e. intra-community score, inter-community score, and evolution of community over
... Show MoreTwilight is that light appear on the horizon before sunrise and after sunset, Astronomically it is known that sunrise and sunset are effected by high above sea level, but the effect of high above sea level on the time of astronomical twilight still not decided and controversy among astronomers, in This research we studies the effect of high above sea level on the time of astronomical twilight, through adding the equation correct high above sea level to equation computation of twilight and then calculate of changing in the time of twilight for different highest (0-10000) meters above sea level , and the ratio of increase for time with high between (15.45-20.5) minutes. It was found that there was an increase in the time of the twilight along
... Show MoreThis study aimed to investigate the incorporation of recycled waste compact discs (WCDs) powder in concrete mixes to replace the fine aggregate by 5%, 10%, 15% and 20%. Compared to the reference concrete mix, results revealed that using WCDs powder in concrete mixes improved the workability and the dry density. The results demonstrated that the compressive, flexural, and split tensile strengths values for the WCDs-modified concrete mixes showed tendency to increase above the reference mix. However, at 28 days curing age, the strengths values for WCDs-modified concrete mixes were comparable to those for the reference mix. The leaching test revealed that none of the WCDs constituents was detected in the leachant after 180 days. The
... Show MoreIn Iraq most of the small buildings deployed a conventional air conditioning technology which typically uses electrically driven compressor systems which exhibits several clear disadvantages such as high energy consumption, high electricity at peak loads. In this work a thermal performance of air conditioning system combined with a solar collector is investigated theoretically. The hybrid air conditioner consists of a semi hermetic compressor, water cooled shell and tube condenser, thermal expansion valve and coil with tank evaporator. The theoretical analysis included a simulation for the solar assisted air-conditioning system using EES software to analyze the effect of different parameters on the power consumption of c
... Show MoreIn this research the effect of grain size and effect of La2O3 doping on densification rate for the initial and intermediate stages of sintering were studied .The experimental results for α – cristobilite powder are modeled using ( L2-Regression ) technique in studying the effect of grain size and La2O3 doping using three particles size (6.12, 8.92, 13.6 ) µm, with undoped initial powder and with La2O3 doping . The mathematical simulation showes that the densification rates increase as the initial particles sizes decrease and vice versa. This shows that the densification depends directly on the initial compact density which reflects the contacts area between the particles . How
... Show MoreIn this research work, a simulator with time-domain visualizers and configurable parameters using a continuous time simulation approach with Matlab R2019a is presented for modeling and investigating the performance of optical fiber and free-space quantum channels as a part of a generic quantum key distribution system simulator. The modeled optical fiber quantum channel is characterized with a maximum allowable distance of 150 km with 0.2 dB/km at =1550nm. While, at =900nm and =830nm the attenuation values are 2 dB/km and 3 dB/km respectively. The modeled free space quantum channel is characterized at 0.1 dB/km at =860 nm with maximum allowable distance of 150 km also. The simulator was investigated in terms of the execution of the BB84 prot
... Show MoreIn this work, the adsorption of reactive yellow dye (Remazol yellow FG dye) by granular activated carbon (GAC) was investigated using batch and continuous process. The batch process involved determination the equilibrium isotherm curve either favorable or unfavorable by estimation relation between adsorption capacity and concentration of dye at different dosage of activated carbon. The results were fitted with equilibrium isotherm models Langmuir and Freundlich models with R2value (>0.97). Batch Kinetic study showed good fitting with pseudo second order model with R2 (0.987) at contact time 5 h. which provesthat the adsorption is chemisorptions nature. Continuous study was done by fixed bed column where breakthrough time was increased
... Show MoreIn this research work, a simulator with time-domain visualizers and configurable parameters using a continuous time simulation approach with Matlab R2019a is presented for modeling and investigating the performance of optical fiber and free-space quantum channels as a part of a generic quantum key distribution system simulator. The modeled optical fiber quantum channel is characterized with a maximum allowable distance of 150 km with 0.2 dB/km at =1550nm. While, at =900nm and =830nm the attenuation values are 2 dB/km and 3 dB/km respectively. The modeled free space quantum channel is characterized at 0.1 dB/km at =860 nm with maximum allowable distance of 150 km also. The simulator was investigated in terms of the execution of the BB84 p
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