Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
A specialized irradiation instrument "created instrument" was designed and created from various kinds and sizes of available plastic household-waste materials. In addition, a neutron beam collimator with a lid was designed and implemented. The collimator is with dimensions of 25 cm in height and 10 cm in inner diameter, while the lid dimensions are 11.5 cm height and outer diameter of 9.9 cm to perfectly match the inner diameter of the collimator with the possibility of movement (opening and closing), and also the shielding of the radioactive 241Am/Be neutron source with a recent activity of 37.5 mCi.
To investigate the efficiency of the "created instrument", ten hydrogenous material samples (ordinary p
... Show MoreA condense study was done to compare between the ordinary estimators. In particular the maximum likelihood estimator and the robust estimator, to estimate the parameters of the mixed model of order one, namely ARMA(1,1) model.
Simulation study was done for a varieties the model. using: small, moderate and large sample sizes, were some new results were obtained. MAPE was used as a statistical criterion for comparison.
In this paper we estimate the coefficients and scale parameter in linear regression model depending on the residuals are of type 1 of extreme value distribution for the largest values . This can be regard as an improvement for the studies with the smallest values . We study two estimation methods ( OLS & MLE ) where we resort to Newton – Raphson (NR) and Fisher Scoring methods to get MLE estimate because the difficulty of using the usual approach with MLE . The relative efficiency criterion is considered beside to the statistical inference procedures for the extreme value regression model of type 1 for largest values . Confidence interval , hypothesis testing for both scale parameter and regression coefficients
... Show MoreIn the present work, the magnetic dipole and electric quadrupole moments for some sodium isotopes have been calculated using the shell model, considering the effect of the two-body effective interactions and the single-particle potentials. These isotopes are; 21Na (3/2+), 23Na (3/2+), 25Na (5/2+), 26Na (3+), 27Na (5/2+), 28Na (1+) and, 29Na (3/2+). The one-body transition density matrix elements (OBDM) have been calculated using the (USDA, USDB, HBUMSD and W) two-body effective interactions carried out in the sd-shell model space. The sd shell model space consists of the active 2s1/2, 1d5/2,
... Show MoreThe study aimed to reveal the possibility of predicting academic procrastination through both Cognitive distortions and time management among students of Al-Aqsa Community College, as well as to reveal the level of both cognitive distortions, time management, and academic procrastination. Additionally, it aimed to identify the size of the correlation between cognitive distortions, time management, and academic procrastination. The study sample consisted of (250) students from Al-Aqsa community college students. The results of the study concluded that the mean for each level of cognitive distortions and academic procrastination is average. The mean level of time management is high. There is a statistically significant positive relationshi
... Show MoreSurvival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete
... Show MoreThe results of theoretical and experimental investigations carried out to study the effect of load and relative sliding speed on the abrasive wear behavior in drilling bit teeth surfaces of an insert tungsten carbide bit have been presented. Experimentally, an apparatus for abrasive wear tests conducted on the modified ASTM-G65 was modified and fabricated to facilitate loading and measurement of wear rate for the sand/ steel wheel abrasion test, which involves two cases of contact; first is at dry sand and second is under wet condition. These tests have been carried under varied operating parameters of normal load and sliding speed. A theoretical model based upon the Archard equation has been developed for predicting wear simulation by u
... Show MoreFoundations supporting reciprocating engines, radar towers, turbines, large electric motors, and generators, etc. are subject to vibrations caused by unbalanced machine forces as well as the static weight of the machine. If these vibrations are excessive, they may damage the machine or cause it not to function properly. In the case of block foundation, if changes in size and mass of the foundation do not lead to a satisfactory design, a pile foundation may be used. In this study, the dynamic response of piles and pile Groups in dry sand is investigated experimentally. The analysis involves the displacement response under harmonic excitation. In addition, a numerical modeling by using finite element method with a three-dimensional formula
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