Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Al-Ruhbah region is located in the southwest of Najaf Governorate. A numerical model was created to simulate groundwater flow and analyze the water quality of the groundwater, by developing a conceptual model within the groundwater modeling system software. Nineteen wells were used, 15 for pumping and four for observation. A three-dimensional model was built based on the cross-sections indicating the geologic layers of the study area, which were composed of five layers. When a distance of 1,000 m between the wells was adopted, 135 wells can be operated simultaneously. These wells were hypothetically operated at 6, 12, and 18 h intervals, with a discharge of 200, 430, and 650 m
The esterification reaction of ethyl alcohol and acetic acid catalyzed by the ion exchange resin, Amberlyst 15, was investigated. The experimental study was implemented in an isothermal batch reactor. Catalyst loading, initial molar ratio, mixing time and temperature as being the most effective parameters, were extensively studied and discussed. A maximum final conversion of 75% was obtained at 70°C, acid to ethyl alcohol mole ratio of 1/2 and 10 g catalyst loading. Kinetic of the reaction was correlated with Langmuir-Hanshelwood model (LHM). The total rate constant and the adsorption equilibrium of water as a function of the temperature was calculated. The activation energies were found to be as 113876.9 and -49474.95 KJ per Kmol of ac
... Show MoreEach phenomenon contains several variables. Studying these variables, we find mathematical formula to get the joint distribution and the copula that are a useful and good tool to find the amount of correlation, where the survival function was used to measure the relationship of age with the level of cretonne in the remaining blood of the person. The Spss program was also used to extract the influencing variables from a group of variables using factor analysis and then using the Clayton copula function that is used to find the shared binary distributions using multivariate distributions, where the bivariate distribution was calculated, and then the survival function value was calculated for a sample size (50) drawn from Yarmouk Ho
... Show MoreThe effective insulation design of the stress grading (SG) system in form-wound stator coils is essential for preventing partial discharges and excessive heat generation under pulse-width modulation excitation. This paper proposes a method to find the optimal insulation design of the SG system aimed at reducing the dielectric and thermal stresses in the machine coil. The non-uniform transmission line model is used to predict the voltage propagation along the overhang, SG, and slot regions considering the variation in the physical properties of the insulation layers. The machine coil parameters for different insulation materials are calculated by using the finite element method. Two optimization algorithms, fmincon and particle swarm optimiz
... Show MoreWe report on using a CO2 (10.6 µm) laser to debond the lithium disilicate veneers. Sixty-four sound human premolar teeth and 64 veneer specimens were used in the study. The zigzag movement via CO2 laser handpiece along with an air-cooled jet to prevent temperature elevation above the necrosis temperature limit (5.5 C°) was applied. The optimal deboning irradiation time was super-fast, at about 5 seconds at 3 Watt CO2 laser power. It is 20 times less than any previously published work for veneers debonding. The enamel beneath the debonded veneers has been assessed by atomic force microscopy (AFM) and shear stress technique as criteria for the easiness of debonding. The
... Show MoreObjective: To identify of the effect of the different concentrations of the special liquid (for mixing the investment, Gilvest)
and mixed with water/powder ratio on setting time of phosphate–bonded investment.
Method and materials: The present study is (60) specimens made from phosphate bonded investment divided into (4)
groups (control and experimental groups), (15) specimens for each group. The Gillmore needle device is used to setting
time of phosphate bonded investment mixed with different concentration of Gilvest and water.
Results: Showed that there is a high significant difference (P<0.01) between each groups in the ANOVA test and a
significant difference (P<0.05) between the group (A) and control group i
In this paper, a procedure to establish the different performance measures in terms of crisp value is proposed for two classes of arrivals and multiple channel queueing models, where both arrival and service rate are fuzzy numbers. The main idea is to convert the arrival rates and service rates under fuzzy queues into crisp queues by using graded mean integration approach, which can be represented as median rule number. Hence, we apply the crisp values obtained to establish the performance measure of conventional multiple queueing models. This procedure has shown its effectiveness when incorporated with many types of membership functions in solving queuing problems. Two numerical illustrations are presented to determine the validity of the
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