Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The aim of this study is to investigate the kinetics of copper removal from aqueous solutions using an electromembrane extraction (EME) system. To achieve this, a unique electrochemical cell design was adopted comprising two glass chambers, a supported liquid membrane (SLM), a graphite anode, and a stainless-steel cathode. The SLM consisted of a polypropylene flat membrane infused with 1-octanol as a solvent and bis(2-ethylhexyl) phosphate (DEHP) as a carrier. The impact of various factors on the kinetics constant rate was outlined, including the applied voltage, initial pH of the donor phase solution, and initial copper concentration. The results demonstrated a significant influence of the applied voltage on enhancing the rate of c
... Show MoreResource estimation is an essential part of reservoir evaluation and development planning which highly affects the decision-making process. The available conventional logs for 30 wells in Nasiriyah oilfield were used in this study to model the petrophysical properties of the reservoir and produce a 3D static geological reservoir model that mimics petrophysical properties distribution to estimate the stock tank oil originally in place (STOOIP) for Mishrif reservoir by volumetric method. Computer processed porosity and water saturation and a structural 2D map were utilized to construct the model which was discretized by 537840 grid blocks. These properties were distributed in 3D Space using sequential Gaussian simulation and the variation in
... Show MoreIn this study, we design narrow band pass filter for window (3_5) ?m dependent on the needle optimization method , and a comparison with global designs published -Also, the effect of change parameter design on the optical performance of filter was studded and being able to overcome the difficulties of the design.In this study, the adoption of homogeneous optical properties materials as thin film depositing on a substrate of germanium at wavelength design (? = 4 ?m). For design this kind of filters we used advanced computer program (Matlab )to build a model design dependent both matrix characteristic and Needle technique. In this paper we refer to the type of Mert function , which is used for correct optical performance acces
... Show MoreBiped robots have gained much attention for decades. A variety of researches have been conducted to make them able to assist or even substitute for humans in performing special tasks. In addition, studying biped robots is important in order to understand human locomotion and to develop and improve control strategies for prosthetic and orthotic limbs. This paper discusses the main challenges encountered in the design of biped robots, such as modeling, stability and their walking patterns. The subject is difficult to deal with because the biped mechanism intervenes with mechanics, control, electronics and artificial intelligence. In this paper, we collect and introduce a systematic discussion of modelin
The study's objective is to produce Nano Graphene Oxide (GO) before using it for batch adsorption to remove heavy metals (Cadmium Cd+2, Nickel Ni+2, and Vanadium V+5) ions from industrial wastewater. The temperature effect (20-50) °C and initial concentration effect (100-800) mg L-1 on the adsorption process were studied. A simulation aqueous solution of the ions was used to identify the adsorption isotherms, and after the experimental data was collected, the sorption process was studied kinetically and thermodynamically. The Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin isotherm models were used to fit the data. The results showed that Cd, Ni, and V ions on the GO adsorbing surface matched the Langmuir mo
... Show MoreGroundwater modelling is particularly challenging in arid regions where limited water recharge is available. A fault zone will add a significant challenge to the modelling process. The Western Desert in Iraq has been chosen to implement the modelling concept and calculate the model sensitivity to the changes in aquifer hydraulic properties and calibration by researching 102 observations and irrigation wells. MODFLOW-NWT, which is a Newtonian formulation for MODFLOW-2005 approaches, have been used in this study. Further, the simulation run has been implemented using the Upstream-Weighting package (UPW) to treat the dry cells. The results show sensitivity to the change of the Kx value for the major groundwater discharge flow. Only abo
... Show MoreMagneto-rheological (MR) valve is one of the devices generally used to control the speed of Hydraulic actuator of MR fluid. The performance of valve depends on the magnetic circuit design. Present study deals with a new design of MR valve. A mathematical model for the MR valve is developed and the simulation is carried out to evaluate the newly developed MR valve. The design of the magnetic circuit is accomplished by magnetic finite element software such as Finite Element Method Magnetic (FEMMR). The model dimensions of MR valve, material properties are taken into account. The results of analysis are presented in terms of magnetic strength H and magnetic flux density B. The simulation results based on the proposed model indicate that the ef
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