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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Modified Vigenère Cipher based on Time and Biometrics features
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Biometrics is widely used with security systems nowadays; each biometric modality can be useful and has distinctive properties that provide uniqueness and ambiguity for security systems especially in communication and network technologies. This paper is about using biometric features of fingerprint, which is called (minutiae) to cipher a text message and ensure safe arrival of data at receiver end. The classical cryptosystems (Caesar, Vigenère, etc.) became obsolete methods for encryption because of the high-performance machines which focusing on repetition of the key in their attacks to break the cipher. Several Researchers of cryptography give efforts to modify and develop Vigenère cipher by enhancing its weaknesses.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 20 2022
Journal Name
Egyptian Journal Of Chemistry
Simulation of the remediation of groundwater contaminated with ciprofloxacin using grafted concrete demolition wastes by ATPES as reactive material: Batch and modeling study
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Particle-Hole State Density Calculations with Non-Equidistant Spacing Model: II. Pairing and Exact Treatment
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In an earlier paper, the basic analytical formula for particle-hole nuclear state densities was derived for non-Equidistant Spacing Model (non-ESM) approach. In this paper, an extension of the former equation was made to include pairing. Also a suggestion was made to derive the exact formula for the particle-hole state densities that depends exactly on Fermi energy and nuclear binding energies. The results indicated that the effects of pairing reduce the state density values, with similar dependence in the ESM system but with less strength. The results of the suggested exact formula indicated some modification from earlier non-ESM approximate treatment, on the cost of more calculation time

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Southwest Jiaotong University
The Dynamics of an Eco-Epidemiological Model with Allee Effect and Harvesting in the Predator
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The aim of this study was to propose and evaluate an eco-epidemiological model with Allee effect and nonlinear harvesting in predators. It was assumed that there is an SI-type of disease in prey, and only portion of the prey would be attacked by the predator due to the fleeing of the remainder of the prey to a safe area. It was also assumed that the predator consumed the prey according to modified Holling type-II functional response. All possible equilibrium points were determined, and the local and global stabilities were investigated. The possibility of occurrence of local bifurcation was also studied. Numerical simulation was used to further evaluate the global dynamics and the effects of varying parameters on the asymptotic behavior of

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Stability Analysis of a Prey-Predator Model with Prey Refuge and Fear of Adult Predator
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     This paper is concerned with a Holling-II stage-structured predator-prey system in which predators are divided into an immature and mature predators. The aim is to explore the impact of the prey's fear caused by the dread of mature predators in a prey-predator model including intraspecific competitions and prey shelters. The theoretical study includes the local and global stability analysis for the three equilibrium points of the system and shows the prey's fear may lead to improving the stability at the positive equilibrium point. A numerical analysis is given to ensure the accuracy of the theoretical outcomes and to testify the conditions of stability of the system near the non-trivial equilibrium points.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of sintering time on Bi1.6Pb0.4Sr1.8Ba0.2Ca2Cu3O10+? compound quenched in air and liquid nitrogen
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High temperature superconductor with nominal composition Bi1.6Pb0.4Sr1.8Ba0.2Ca2 Cu3O10+? was prepared by solid state reaction method. Two sets of samples have been prepared .The first one was quenched in air; the second set was quenched in liquid nitrogen. X-ray diffraction analyses showed an orthorhombic structure with two phases, high –Tc phase (2223) and low-Tc phase (2212) in addition to that impure phase was found. It has been observed that quenched in air samples display a sharp superconducting transition and a higher-Tc phase than that of the quenched in liquid nitrogen samples.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
1st Samarra International Conference For Pure And Applied Sciences (sicps2021): Sicps2021
The persistence and bifurcation analysis of an ecological model with fear effect involving prey refuge and harvesting
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Bioautomation
Model for Prediction of the Weight and Height Measurements of Patients with Disabilities for Diagnosis and Therapy
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Background: Accurate measurement of a patient’s height and weight is an essential part of diagnosis and therapy, but there is some controversy as to how to calculate the height and weight of patients with disabilities. Objective: This study aims to use anthropometric measurements (arm span, length of leg, chest circumference, and waist circumference) to find a model (alternatives) that can allow the calculation of the height and the body weight of patients with disabilities. Additionally, a model for the prediction of weight and height measurements of patients with disabilities was established. Method: Four hander patients aged 20-80 years were enrolled in this study and divided into two groups, 210 (52.5%) male and 190 (47.5%) fe

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using BoxJenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2)

Publication Date
Thu Aug 13 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
A comparison of some forecasting models to forecast the number of old people in Iraqi retirement homes
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Statistical methods of forecasting have applied with the intention of constructing a model to predict the number of the old aged people in retirement homes in Iraq. They were based on the monthly data of old aged people in Baghdad and the governorates except for the Kurdistan region from 2016 to 2019. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, the stationarity of the series was examined. The appropriate model order was determined, the parameters were estimated, the significance was tested, adequacy of the model was checked, and then the best model of prediction was used. The best model for forecasting according to criteria of (Normalized BIC, MAPE, RMSE) is ARIMA (0, 1, 2).

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