Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
The evolution of thought, planning for Urban Communities in the second half of the twentieth century, through several successive stages. He was thought of planning urban communities depends on identifying the general plan for land uses of the project area as a basis for drawing charts the physical, social, economic, and put the general plan for land uses based on the terms of reference set by the number of experts in the ministries and agencies. I have lived cities in the Arab-Muslim region, during the transition period the natural and historic environment, urban, sophisticated balanced ways mentioned in the cultural, social, inspired by the teachings of Islam and the customs and traditions of the Arab social, put forth a set of
... Show MoreTime affects all elements of the intellectual scene or the theatrical scene. It came along with the theatrical doctrines according to the conditions of those doctrines and their conceptual ideas or the method of their mechanisms in the application. While it is classically or realistically integrated, we see it in the expressionist doctrine inconsistent and its inconsistency makes it responsive for the deconstruction strategy. Hence the researcher entitled his study (deconstruction the theatrical time in the expressionist doctrine) so that deconstruction would be a field for his study. The study starts with an introduction presenting the research problem, importance and objective. The theoretical framework consisted of three s
... Show MoreIt is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s
... Show MoreThe theatre costume with the rest of the theatre show elements constitute a system of the meaning relations that produce a visual image that helps the recipient to decipher the theatre scene, let alone the manifestation of time in its levels (past, present, future) through the design construction of the theatre elements among which is the theatre costume. In order to know the way of manifesting time through the formulation of the theatre costumes, the research question has been put as follows: how to manifest time through the design construction for the theatre costumes unit, from which the research objective is derived as follows: Revealing the possibility of the designing unit of the costumes in manifesting the levels of time wit
... Show MoreStatic Synchronous Series Compensator (SSSC) is a well known device for effectively regulating the active power flow in a power system. In this paper, the SSSC linearized power flow equations are incorporated into Newton-Raphson algorithm in a MATLAB written program to investigate the control of active poweer flow and the transient stability of a five bus and a thirty bus IEEE test systems, during abnormal conduction (three phase fault near buses). A comparison of the results obtained for the base case without SSSC and with it to investigate the effectiveness of the device on both of the active power flow and the transient stability.
Maintenance of machine tools can be improved significantly by analyzing the operating of manufacturing process with the real-time monitoring system for 3-D single point deformation measurements. Therefore, the process of manufacturing could be optimized with less cost. Recently, wireless technology and internet of things (IOT) applied on intelligent machine has witnessed a significant advance with augmented virtuality, the analysis and the process certainly would contribute to enhance the intelligence of that machine. This paper presents a group of the wireless sensors and 3D animation technologies for data monitoring and analyzing. Three degree of freedom robotic hand structure has been selected as a prototype to be form the process of the
... Show MoreThe aldol condensation of 2-acetylnaphthalene with 9-anthracene carboxaldehyde afforded α, β-unsaturated keton (1) . New heterocyclic compounds containing: cyclohexenone[2], indazole[3], pyrimidinethion [4], thiazolo fused pyrimidine[5], isoxazoline[6], substituted pyrazoline[7]a-d and pyrimidinone[8] rings system were synthesized from α, β-unsaturated keton[1]. Cyclization of [1] with ethylacetoacetate gave the mentioned heterocycle cyclohexanone [2]. The cyclo condensation of [2] with hydrazine gave the new indazole derivative [3]. furthermore, the reation of [1]with thiourea gives thiopyrmidine derivative [4]. The cyclo condensation of [4] with chloroacetic acid gave the fused rings [5]. Then reacted compound[1] with hydroxy
... Show MoreThe researches to discover useful ways to represent the agents and agent-based
systems are continuous. Unified Modeling Language (UML) is a visual modeling language
used for software and non software modeling systems. The aim of this paper is: using UML
class diagram to design treasury pharmaceuticals agent and explain its internal action. The
diagram explains the movement of the agent among other nodes to achieve user's requests
(external) after it takes them. The paper shows that it is easy to model the practical systems by
using agent UML when they are used in a complex environment.
Shallow foundations have been commonly used to transfer load to soil layer within the permissible limits of settlement based on the bearing capacity of the soil. For most practical cases, the shape of the shallow foundation is of slight significance. Also, friction resistance forces in the first layers of soils are negligible due to non-sufficient surrounding surface area and compaction conditions. However, the bearing capacity of a shallow foundation can be increased by several techniques. Geocell is one of the geosynthetic tool applied mainly to reinforce soil. This study presents a numerical approach of honeycombed geocell steel panels reinforcing the sandy soil under shallow foundation, and several parameters are investigated such as th
... Show MoreRecently, the theory of Complex Networks gives a modern insight into a variety of applications in our life. Complex Networks are used to form complex phenomena into graph-based models that include nodes and edges connecting them. This representation can be analyzed by using network metrics such as node degree, clustering coefficient, path length, closeness, betweenness, density, and diameter, to mention a few. The topology of the complex interconnections of power grids is considered one of the challenges that can be faced in terms of understanding and analyzing them. Therefore, some countries use Complex Networks concepts to model their power grid networks. In this work, the Iraqi Power Grid network (IPG) has been modeled, visua
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