Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Localized surface plasmons (LSPs) are a potentially valuable property for the practical use of small size metallic particles. Exploiting the LSPs in metallic nanoparticle (NP)-based solar cells was shown to increase the efficiency of solar panels. A large extinction cross section of NPs allows for high scattering of light at the surface of the panel, which reduces the panel thickness, allowing for small size and low-cost solar cells. In this paper, the extinction cross-section of spherical nanoparticles is studied and simulated numerically. Surface plasmons were first modeled using the Drude’s model then the scattering and absorption cross-sections were derived. Commercial3D simulation software was used to model the near field dis
... Show Moren this work, it have earthquakes data been analytized as a result of ground water injection attendant to dig wells and oil, which affects the pressure pores in the rock and is according to cause a medium-sized earthquake that have already occurred more than 20 times. according to the publication of the Department of Attenba, the dangers of earthquakes and movement flooring in Guy-Greenbrie-United area of one of United States of America cities, where these data represent a monitor magnitudes of earthquakes from September 2008 the September 2011, we conducted statistical analysis and create a model for earthquakes flooring that was chosen for four dis-tributions and results i the optima reveal the best distribution is the Burr X11 then Gen
... Show MoreThe high cost of chemical analysis of water has necessitated various researches into finding alternative method of determining portable water quality. This paper is aimed at modelling the turbidity value as a water quality parameter. Mathematical models for turbidity removal were developed based on the relationships between water turbidity and other water criteria. Results showed that the turbidity of water is the cumulative effect of the individual parameters/factors affecting the system. A model equation for the evaluation and prediction of a clarifier’s performance was developed:
Model: T = T0(-1.36729 + 0.037101∙10λpH + 0.048928t + 0.00741387∙alk)
The developed model will aid the predictiv
... Show MoreThis paper delves into some significant performance measures (PMs) of a bulk arrival queueing system with constant batch size b, according to arrival rates and service rates being fuzzy parameters. The bulk arrival queuing system deals with observation arrival into the queuing system as a constant group size before allowing individual customers entering to the service. This leads to obtaining a new tool with the aid of generating function methods. The corresponding traditional bulk queueing system model is more convenient under an uncertain environment. The α-cut approach is applied with the conventional Zadeh's extension principle (ZEP) to transform the triangular membership functions (Mem. Fs) fuzzy queues into a family of conventional b
... Show MoreBackground: The main purpose of this study is to find if there is any correlation between the level of C-reactive protein (CRP) in gingival crevicular fluid with its serum level in chronic periodontitis patients and to explore the differences between them according to the probing depth. Materials and methods: Forty seven male subjects enrolled in this study. Thirty males with chronic periodontitis considered as study group whom further subdivided according to probing depth into subgroup 1 with pocket depth ≤6mm, subgroup 2 with pocket depth >6mm. The other 17 subjects considered as controls. For all subjects, clinical examination where done for periodontal parameters plaque index (PLI), gingival index (GI), bleeding on probing (BOP),
... Show MoreOne of the most important methodologies in operations research (OR) is the linear programming problem (LPP). Many real-world problems can be turned into linear programming models (LPM), making this model an essential tool for today's financial, hotel, and industrial applications, among others. Fuzzy linear programming (FLP) issues are important in fuzzy modeling because they can express uncertainty in the real world. There are several ways to tackle fuzzy linear programming problems now available. An efficient method for FLP has been proposed in this research to find the best answer. This method is simple in structure and is based on crisp linear programming. To solve the fuzzy linear programming problem (FLPP), a new ranking function (R
... Show MoreThis article suggests and explores a three-species food chain model that includes fear effects, refuges depending on predators, and cannibalism at the second level. The Holling type II functional response determines food consumption between stages of the food chain. This study examined the long-term behavior and impacts of the suggested model's essential elements. The model's solution properties were studied. The existence and stability of every probable equilibrium point were examined. The persistence needs of the system have been determined. It was discovered what conditions could lead to local bifurcation at equilibrium points. Appropriate Lyapunov functions are utilized to investigate the overall dynamics of the system. To support the a
... Show MoreLocal and global bifurcations of food web model consists of immature and mature preys, first predator, and second predator with the current of toxicity and harvesting was studied. It is shown that a trans-critical bifurcation occurs at the equilibrium point
There are many factors effect on the spread of infectious disease or control it,
some of these factors are (immigration and vaccination). The main objective of this
paper is to study the effect of those factors on the dynamical behavior of an SVIR
model. It is assumed that the disease is spread by contact between members of
populations individuals. While the recovered individuals gain permanent immunity
against the disease. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of
this model are investigated. The local and global dynamical behaviors of the model
are studied. The local bifurcations and Hopf bifurcation of the model are
investigated. Finally, in order to confirm our obtained results and specify t