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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 20 2019
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Evaluate the Rate of Pollution in Soil using Simulink Environment
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       In this paper we design a Simulink model which can be evaluate the concentration of Copper, Lead, Zinc, Cadmium, Cobalt, Nickel, Crum and Iron. So, this model would be a method to determine the contamination levels of these metals with the potential for this contamination sources with their impact. The aim of using Simulink environment is to solve differential equations individually and as given data in parallel with analytical mathematics trends. In general, mathematical models of the spread heavy metals in soil are modeled and solve to predict the behavior of the system under different conditions.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Predicting Biochemical Oxygen Demand at the Inlet of Al-Rustumiya Wastewater Treatment Plant Using Different Mathematical Techniques
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Water quality planning relies on Biochemical Oxygen Demand BOD. BOD testing takes five days. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is increasingly used for water resource forecasting. This work designed a PSO technique for estimating everyday BOD at Al-Rustumiya wastewater treatment facility inlet. Al-Rustumiya wastewater treatment plant provided 702 plant-scale data sets during 2012-2022. The PSO model uses the daily data of the water quality parameters, including chemical oxygen demand (COD), chloride (Cl-), suspended solid (SS), total dissolved solids (TDS), and pH, to determine how each variable affects the daily incoming BOD. PSO and multiple linear regression (MLR) findings are compared, and their perfor

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 02 2009
Journal Name
Noise And Health
Expert system to predict effects of noise pollution on operators of power plant using neuro-fuzzy approach
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Ration power plants, to generate power, have become common worldwide. One such one is the steam power plant. In such plants, various moving parts of heavy machines generate a lot of noise. Operators are subjected to high levels of noise. High noise level exposure leads to psychological as well physiological problems; different kinds of ill effects. It results in deteriorated work efficiency, although the exact nature of work performance is still unknown. To predict work efficiency deterioration, neuro-fuzzy tools are being used in research. It has been established that a neuro-fuzzy computing system helps in identification and analysis of fuzzy models. The last decade has seen substantial growth in development of various neuro-fuzzy systems

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 06 2023
Journal Name
Materials Science Forum
Study of the Effect of Ce <sup>3+</sup> on the Gas Sensitivity and Magnetic Properties of Cu<sub>x</sub>Ce<sub>0.3-X</sub>Ni<sub>0.7</sub>Fe<sub>2</sub>O<sub>4</sub> Ferrite Nanoparticles
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This study includes the preparation of the ferrite nanoparticles CuxCe0.3-XNi0.7Fe2O4 (where: x = 0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25, 0.3) using the sol-gel (auto combustion) method, and citric acid was used as a fuel for combustion. The results of the tests conducted by X-ray diffraction (XRD), emitting-field scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray analyzer (EDX), and Vibration Sample Magnetic Device (VSM) showed that the compound has a face-centered cubic structure, and the lattice constant is increased with increasing Cu ion. On the other hand, the compound has apparent porosity and spherical particles, and t

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 29 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Electronic Payment systems on the Profitability of Banks: An applied research on a sample of Iraqi commercial banks
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Due to technological developments in the Iraqi banking sector, which is the use of electronic payment systems within the banking infrastructure. This has led to speed and accuracy in the completion of transactions, reduced costs, increased revenues and efficiency. This research examines the challenges and risks facing the Iraqi banking sector as a result of its use of electronic payment systems. And show its impact on the profitability of commercial banks. The research was based on the main hypothesis that there is a statistically significant moral impact relationship between electronic payment systems and the profitability of banks. Iraqi commercial banks were chosen as a research community, All Iraqi commercial banks that parti

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Using TD-ABC technology to determine idle production capacity: An applied research in Al-Wasat Oil Company
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The aim of the research to apply TD-ABC technology to determine the idle capacity of the central oil companies (oil field east of Baghdad), as a modern cost management technology based on time-oriented activities (TD-ABC) is used by industrial companies in general and oil companies on In particular to build a sustainable Calvinist pillar and make future decisions by identifying idle energy to gain it a competitive advantage, the descriptive analytical approach has been adopted in calculating and analyzing the company’s data for 2018, and the most prominent conclusions of this research are managing idle energy and the task of applying cost technology on the basis of time-oriented activities and providing Convenient spatial infor

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Performance Assessment of Pile Embedded in Expansive Soil
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An evaluation for the performance of model pile embedded in expansive soil was investigated. An extensive testing program was planned to achieve the purpose of this research. Therefore, special manufactured system was prepared for studying the behavior of model pile having different length to diameter ratios (L/D). Two types of piles were used in this research, straight shaft and under reamed piles. The effect of model pile type, L/D ratio and number of wetting drying cycles were studied. It is observed that significant reductions in pile movement when under   reamed piles were considered. A proposed design charts was presented for straight shaft and under reamed piles to estimate the length of both types of piles that is requi

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Publication Date
Mon May 15 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Development of Semi – Empirical Relationship for the Determination of the Half –Lives of Even – Even Heavy Nuclei that Emit Alpha – Particles
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The Development of Semi – Empirical Relationship for the Determination of the Half –Lives of Even – Even Heavy Nuclei that Emit Alpha – Particles

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 02 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Fuzzy control of mobile robot in slippery environment
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The problem of independent motion control of mobile robot (МR) in conditions when unforeseen changes of conditions of interaction of wheels with a surface are considered. An example of such changes can be sudden entrance МR a slippery surface. The deployment of an autonomous unmanned ground vehicle for field applications provides the means by which the risk to personnel can be minimized and operational capabilities improved. In rough terrain, it is critical for mobile robots to maintain good wheel traction. Wheel slip could cause the rover to lose control and become trapped. This paper describes the application of fuzzy control to a feedback system within slippery environment. The study is conducted on an example of М

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 14 2014
Journal Name
Desalination And Water Treatment
Copper biosorption using local Iraqi natural agents
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Industrial effluents loaded with heavy metals are a cause of hazards to the humans and other forms of life. Conventional approaches, such as electroplating, ion exchange, and membrane processes, are used for removal of copper, cadmium, and lead and are often cost prohibitive with low efficiency at low metal ion concentration. Biosorption can be considered as an option which has been proven as more efficient and economical for removing the mentioned metal ions. Biosorbents used are fungi, yeasts, oil palm shells, coir pith carbon, peanut husks, and olive pulp. Recently, low cost and natural products have also been researched as biosorbent. This paper presents an attempt of the potential use of Iraqi date pits and Al-Khriet (i.e. substances l

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