Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Obesity-related deaths continue to rise, and thus losing weight in overweight and obese patients is critical to prevent complications. Anredera cordifolia (Ten,) Steenis, species of succulent plant of the genus Basellaceae, is widely used in herbal medicine to decrease body weight. This study evaluated the potential benefits of Anredera cordifolia ethanol extract to reduce body weight in high-fat diet-induced obesity rat model. This was an experimental with post-test only control group design study involving 36 obese rats. They were divided into two groups: three control groups (K1, K2, K3) and three treatment groups (P1, P2, P3). All the groups were induced with high-fat diet, except K1 control group that received a standard di
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This paper deals with a method called Statistical Energy Analysis that can be applied to the mechanical and acoustical systems like buildings, bridges and aircrafts …etc. S.E.A as a tool can be applied to the resonant systems in the circumstances of high frequency or/and complex structure». The parameters of S.E.A such as coupling loss factor, internal loss factor, modal density and input power are clarified in this work ; coupled plate sub-systems and explanations are presented for these parameters. The developed system is assumed to be resonant, conservative, linear and there is an equipartition of energy between all the resonant modes within a given frequency band in a given sub-system. The aim of th
... Show MoreThe exploitation of obsolete recyclable resources including paper waste has the advantages of saving resources and environment protection. This study has been conducted to study utilizing paper waste to adsorb phenol which is one of the harmful organic compound byproducts deposited in the environment. The influence of different agitation methods, pH of the solution (3-11), initial phenol concentration (30-120ppm), adsorbent dose (0.5-2.5 g) and contact time (30-150 min) were studied. The highest phenol removal efficiency obtained was 86% with an adsorption capacity of 5.1 mg /g at optimization conditions (pH of 9, initial phenol concentration of 30 mg/L, an adsorbent dose of 2 g and contact time of 120min and at room temperature).
... Show MoreThin Lithium Fluoride films have been prepared by thermal evaporation technique on glass substrate under vacuum of about 10-5mbar. The thickness of the films was 4000±50Å. The effects of annealing temperatures on the optical properties and dispersion parameters have been studies. Transmittance spectra of the films indicate that the films have high transparency. The optical absorption studies reveal that the transition is direct with band gap value varied with the annealing temperatures. Also the refractive index dispersion curves obey to the single oscillator's model. The dispersion energy and single-oscillator energy varied with the annealing temperatures
A 3D velocity model was created by using stacking velocity of 9 seismic lines and average velocity of 6 wells drilled in Iraq. The model was achieved by creating a time model to 25 surfaces with an interval time between each two successive surfaces of about 100 msec. The summation time of all surfaces reached about 2400 msec, that was adopted according to West Kifl-1 well, which penetrated to a depth of 6000 m, representing the deepest well in the study area. The seismic lines and well data were converted to build a 3D cube time model and the velocity was spread on the model. The seismic inversion modeling of the elastic properties of the horizon and well data was applied to achieve a corrected veloci
... Show MoreThis paper deals with defining Burr-XII, and how to obtain its p.d.f., and CDF, since this distribution is one of failure distribution which is compound distribution from two failure models which are Gamma model and weibull model. Some equipment may have many important parts and the probability distributions representing which may be of different types, so found that Burr by its different compound formulas is the best model to be studied, and estimated its parameter to compute the mean time to failure rate. Here Burr-XII rather than other models is consider because it is used to model a wide variety of phenomena including crop prices, household income, option market price distributions, risk and travel time. It has two shape-parame
... Show MoreThis paper discusses reliability of the stress-strength model. The reliability functions ð‘…1 and ð‘…2 were obtained for a component which has an independent strength and is exposed to two and three stresses, respectively. We used the generalized inverted Kumaraswamy distribution GIKD with unknown shape parameter as well as known shape and scale parameters. The parameters were estimated from the stress- strength models, while the reliabilities ð‘…1, ð‘…2 were estimated by three methods, namely the Maximum Likelihood, Least Square, and Regression.
A numerical simulation study a comparison between the three estimators by mean square error is performed. It is found that best estimator between
... Show MoreObjective conditions for the possibility of punishment are legal or material facts –positive or negative that depart from the activity of the offender. The legislator comments on their subsequent verification on the formation of some crimes the possibility of.The application of punishment to the offender , but although they are facts of an object nature that approach and overlap with many systems and cases , they are distinguished by a certain subjectivity that differentiates them from each case that may seem similar or approach them. To clarify the ambiguity that may surround these conditions , Which may lead to confusion between them and what be similar to other cases due to the common effect that they have in common , which is the f
... Show MoreIn this paper we present the first ever measured experimental electron momentum density of Cu2Sb at an intermediate resolution (0.6 a.u.) using 59.54 keV 241Am Compton spectrometer. The measurements are compared with the theoretical Compton profiles using density function theory (DFT) within a linear combination of an atomic orbitals (LCAO) method. In DFT calculation, Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) scheme is employed to treat correlation whereas exchange is included by following the Becke scheme. It is seen that various approximations within LCAO-DFT show relatively better agreement with the experimental Compton data. Ionic model calculations for a number of configurations (Cu+x/2)2(Sb-x) (0.0≤x≤2.0) are also performed utilizing free a
... Show MoreInformation processing has an important application which is speech recognition. In this paper, a two hybrid techniques have been presented. The first one is a 3-level hybrid of Stationary Wavelet Transform (S) and Discrete Wavelet Transform (W) and the second one is a 3-level hybrid of Discrete Wavelet Transform (W) and Multi-wavelet Transforms (M). To choose the best 3-level hybrid in each technique, a comparison according to five factors has been implemented and the best results are WWS, WWW, and MWM. Speech recognition is performed on WWS, WWW, and MWM using Euclidean distance (Ecl) and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The match performance is (98%) using DTW in MWM, while in the WWS and WWW are (74%) and (78%) respectively, but when using (
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