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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2011
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Path Planning Control for Mobile Robot
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Autonomous motion planning is important area of robotics research. This type of planning relieves human operator from tedious job of motion planning. This reduces the possibility of human error and increase efficiency of whole process.

This research presents a new algorithm to plan path for autonomous mobile robot based on image processing techniques by using wireless camera that provides the desired image for the unknown environment . The proposed algorithm is applied on this image to obtain a optimal path for the robot. It is based on the observation and analysis of the obstacles that lying in the straight path between the start and the goal point by detecting these obstacles, analyzing and studying their shapes, positions and

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 31 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Experimental Study for the Influence of Operating Parameters on Copper Electrorefining Process
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Copper electrodeposition by electrorefining process in acidic sulfate media contains 40 g/l of cupric ions and 160 g/l of sulfuric acid was achieved to study the influence of the operating parameters on cathode purity, surface morphology, deposition rate, current efficiency and power consumption. These operating parameters and there ranges are: current density 200, 300 and 400 A/m2, electrolyte temperature 35, 50 and 65 oC, electrodes spacing 15, 30 and 45 mm and electrolyte residence time 6, 4 and 2 h were utilized. XRF, SEM and EDX analyses were attained to clarify the properties of the produced cathode.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 15 2014
Journal Name
International Journal Of Advanced Research
A survey/ Development of Passive Optical Access Networks Technologies
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The bandwidth requirements of telecommunication network users increased rapidly during the last decades. Optical access technologies must provide the bandwidth demand for each user. The passive optical access networks (PONs) support a maximum data rate of 100 Gbps by using the Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) technique in the optical access network. In this paper, the optical broadband access networks with many techniques from Time Division Multiplexing Passive Optical Networks (TDM PON) to Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplex Passive Optical Networks (OFDM PON) are presented. The architectures, advantages, disadvantages, and main parameters of these optical access networks are discussed and reported which have many ad

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 29 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Audio Classification Based on Content Features
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Audio classification is the process to classify different audio types according to contents. It is implemented in a large variety of real world problems, all classification applications allowed the target subjects to be viewed as a specific type of audio and hence, there is a variety in the audio types and every type has to be treatedcarefully according to its significant properties.Feature extraction is an important process for audio classification. This workintroduces several sets of features according to the type, two types of audio (datasets) were studied. Two different features sets are proposed: (i) firstorder gradient feature vector, and (ii) Local roughness feature vector, the experimentsshowed that the results are competitive to

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 05 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of Organic Matter Application on Phosphorus Status in the Calcareous Soil
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A field experiment is conducted to study the effect of different levels of peat (0, 25, 50, 75, and 100 Mg ha-1 to uncropped and cropped soil to wheat. Soil samples are taken in different period of time (0, 3, 30, 60, 90, 120, and 180 days after cultivation to determine (NaHCO3-Exteractable P at 3 different depths (0-10, 10-20, and 20-30 cm). Field Experiment is conducted in a randomized complete block design (RCBD) with four replicates. Wheat, Al-Rasheed variety, is cultivated as a testing crop. The entire field is equally dived in two divisions. One of the two divisions is cultivated to wheat and the second is left uncropped. The effect of five levels of peat namely 0, 25, 50, 75, 100 Mg ha-1 is investigated. Soils are fully analyzed

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 21 2023
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
New techniques to estimate the solution of autonomous system
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This research aims to solve the nonlinear model formulated in a system of differential equations with an initial value problem (IVP) represented in COVID-19 mathematical epidemiology model as an application using new approach: Approximate Shrunken are proposed to solve such model under investigation, which combines classic numerical method and numerical simulation techniques in an effective statistical form which is shrunken estimation formula. Two numerical simulation methods are used firstly to solve this model: Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta and Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta Methods. Then two approximate simulation methods are proposed to solve the current study. The results of the proposed approximate shrunken methods and the numerical

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
The Effects of Operating Variables on Efficancy of Water Disinfection by Sodium Hypochlorite Using Al-Wathba Wastewater
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The aim of this investigation was to study the impact of various reaction parameters on wastewater taken from Al-Wathba water treatment plant on Tigris River in south of Baghdad, Iraq with sodium hypochlorite solution. The parameters studied were sodium hypochlorite dose, contact time, initial fecal coliform bacteria concentration, temperature, and pH. In a batch reactor, different concentrations of sodium hypochlorite solution were used to disinfect 1L of water. The amount of hypochlorite ions in disinfected water was measured using an Iodimetry test for different reaction times, whereas the Most Probable Number (MPN) test was used to determine the concentration of coliform bacteria. Total Plate Count (TPC) was utilized in this study to

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Application of Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Iron Concentration in the Location of Al-Wahda Water Treatment Plant in Baghdad City
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Iron is one of the abundant elements on earth that is an essential element for humans and may be a troublesome element in water supplies.  In this research an AAN model was developed to predict iron concentrations in the location of Al- Wahda water treatment plant in Baghdad city by water quality assessment of iron concentrations at seven WTPs up stream Tigris River. SPSS software was used to build the ANN model. The input data were iron concentrations in the raw water for the period 2004-2011. The results indicated the best model predicted Iron concentrations at Al-Wahda WTP with a coefficient of determination 0.9142. The model used one hidden layer with two nodes and the testing error was 0.834. The ANN model coul

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 09 2021
Journal Name
Turkish Journal Of Physiotherapy And Rehabilitation,
The Violation of Religious Human Rights: A sample Analysis of an Offensive Image of Islamic Concept
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate Religious Human Rights Violations. Religious liberty is essential for everyone, everywhere. Because religion is significant to everyone, everywhere. Humans are religious by nature. Our nature drives us to seek answers to deep questions about ultimate things. We cannot live a fully human life unless we are free to seek those answers and live according to the truths we discover. In this study, the researcher used Marsh and White model for analysis A sample of an offensive image of an Islamic concept from the book "Mohammad believes it or else." this book is a comic book written by pseudonym Abdullah Aziz and published by Crescent Moon Publishing company. The book is marked with anti- Mohammad, preju

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 24 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Ambient Turbulence Intensity Calculation for Al-Nasiriyah Province in Iraq
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Before setting a turbine in a wind farms allocated for power generation, it must be know the appropriate turbine class for that site depending on the turbulence intensity of the winds in the studied area and the IEC-61400 standard. The importance of identifying a class of wind turbine is due to the complex environmental conditions that produce turbulent air which, in turn, may cause damage to the turbine blades and weakness in the performance. Therefore, the ambient turbulence intensity is a very important factor in determining the performance and productivity of the wind turbines.
In this research we calculate Turbulence Intensity "TI" in the province of Nasiriyah, south of Iraq (Lat. 31.052049 , Lon. 46.261021) for the years 2008, 2

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