Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
In this paper, a numerical model for fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis is developed for investigating the aeroelastic response of a single wind turbine blade. The Blade Element Momentum (BEM) theory was adopted to calculate the aerodynamic forces considering the effects of wind shear and tower shadow. The wind turbine blade was modeled as a rotating cantilever beam discretized using Finite Element Method (FEM) to analyze the deformation and vibration of the blade. The aeroelastic response of the blade was obtained by coupling these aerodynamic and structural models using a coupled BEM-FEM program written in MATLAB. The governing FSI equations of motion are iteratively calculated at each time step, through exchanging data between
... Show MoreThe rising temperatures are the most significant aspect in the period of climate variability. In this study PRECIS model data and observed data are used for assessing the temperature change scenarios of Sindh province during the first half of the present century. Observed data from various meteorological stations of Sindh are the primary source for temperature change detection. The current scenario (1961–1990) and future one (2010-2050) are acted by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model at a spatial resolution of 25 * 25 km. Regional Climate Model (RCM) can yield reasonably suitable projections to be used in the climate - scenario. The main objective of the study is to prepare maps. The simulated temperature as obtained from climate model-
... Show MoreMany objective optimizations (MaOO) algorithms that intends to solve problems with many objectives (MaOP) (i.e., the problem with more than three objectives) are widely used in various areas such as industrial manufacturing, transportation, sustainability, and even in the medical sector. Various approaches of MaOO algorithms are available and employed to handle different MaOP cases. In contrast, the performance of the MaOO algorithms assesses based on the balance between the convergence and diversity of the non-dominated solutions measured using different evaluation criteria of the quality performance indicators. Although many evaluation criteria are available, yet most of the evaluation and benchmarking of the MaOO with state-of-art a
... Show MoreIn this paper, the aquatic food chain model, consisting of Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, and Fish, in the contaminated environment is proposed and studied. Modified Leslie–Gower model with Holling type IV functional response are used to describe the growth of Fish and the food transition throughout the food chain, respectively. The toxic substance affects directly the Phytoplankton and indirectly the other species. The local stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points is done. The persistence conditions of the model are established. The basin of attraction for each point is specified using the Lyapunov function. Bifurcation analysis near the coexistence equilibrium point is investigated. Detecting the existence of chao
... Show MoreConcrete structures are exposed to aggressive environmental conditions that lead to corrosion of the embedded reinforcement and pre-stressing steel. Consequently, the safety of concrete structures may be compromised, and this requires a significant budgets to repair and maintain critical infrastructure. Prediction of structural safety can lead to significant reductions in maintenance costs by maximizing the impact of investments. The aim of this paper is to establish a framework to assess the reliability of existing post-tensioned concrete bridges. A time-dependent reliability analysis of an existing post-tensioned involving the assessment of Ynys-y-Gwas bridge has been presented in this study. The main cause of failure of this bridge was c
... Show MoreBuilding a geological model is an essential and primary step for studying the reservoir’s hydrocarbon content and future performance. A three-dimensional geological model of the Asmari reservoir in Abu- Ghirab oil field including structure, stratigraphy, and reservoir petrophysical properties, has been constructed in the present work.
As to underlying Formations, striking slip faults developed at the flank and interlayer normal. Abu Ghirab oilfields are located on the eastern anticlinal band, which has steadily plunged southward. 3D seismic interpretation results are utilized to build the fault model for 43 faults of the Asmari Formation in Abu Ghirab Oilfield. A geographic facies model with six different rock facies type
... Show MoreWere arranged this study on two sections, which included first section comparison between markets proposed through the use of transport models and the use of the program QSB for less costs , dependant the optimal solution to chose the suggested market to locate new market that achieve lower costs in the transport of goods from factories (ALRasheed ,ALAmeen , AlMaamun ) to points of sale, but the second part has included comparison of all methods of transport (The least cost method ,Vogels method , Results Approximations method , Total method) depending on the agenda of transport, which includes the market proposed selected from the first section and choose the way in which check the solution first best suited in terms
... Show MoreIn this paper, the single scatter model for gamma backscatter densitometer has been used to investigate the materials of Halley’s nucleus. Monte Carlo simulation tool is used for the evaluation and calibration of gamma backscatter densitometer; and also used to calculate the bulk density. A set of parameters effecting detected count rate of γ – ray backscattering, mainly the source energy, the source – detector separation (sonde length), density and composition, were calculated.
Results obtained with the present method are compared with experimental data and the computed data may be considered entirely satisfactory.
The present work concerns with simulating unsteady state equilibrium model for production of methyl oleate (biodiesel) from reaction of oleic acid with methanol using sulfuric acid as a catalyst in batch reactive distillation. MESHR equations of equilibrium model were solved using MATLAB (R2010a). The validity of simulation model was tested by comparing the simulation results with a data available in literature. UNIQUAC liquid phase activity coefficient model is the most appropriate model to describe the non-ideality of OLAC-MEOH-MEOL-H2O system. The chemical reactions rates results from EQ model indicating the rates are controlled by chemical kinetics. Several variables was studied such as molar ratio of methanol to oleic acid 4:1, 6:1
... Show MoreThis paper presents the dynamic responses of generators in a multi-machine power system. The fundamental swing equations for a multi-machine stability analysis are revisited. The swing equations are solved to investigate the influence of a three-phase fault on the network largest load bus. The Nigerian 330kV transmission network was used as a test case for the study. The time domain simulation approach was explored to determine if the system could withstand a 3-phase fault. The stability of the transmission network is estimated considering the dynamic behaviour of the system under various contingency conditions. This study identifies Egbin, Benin, Olorunsogo, Akangba, Sakete, Omotosho and Oshogbo as the key buses w
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