Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
In our research, we dealt with one of the most important issues of linguistic studies of the Holy Qur’an, which is the words that are close in meaning, which some believe are synonyms, but in the Arabic language they are not considered synonyms because there are subtle differences between them. Synonyms in the Arabic language are very few, rather rare, and in the Holy Qur’an they are completely non-existent. And how were these words, close in meaning, translated in the translation of the Holy Qur’an by Almir Kuliev into the Russian language.
The present studier aims to study the kinetic of reaction at different experimental conditions depending on coliform bacteria concentration and hypochlorite ion. The effects that had been investigated were different of sodium hypochlorite doses, contact time, pH and temperature (20, 29, 37) o C. The water samples were taken from Al-Wathba water treatment plant in Risafa side of Tigris River in Baghdad. The biological tests included the most probable number (M.P.N) for indicating the concentration of coliform bacteria with different contact times and the total plate count (T.P.C) for indicating the amount of colonies for general bacteria. The iodimetry method (chemical test) was used for indicating the concentration of hypochlo
... Show MoreThis paper presents a study for the influence of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) on the oscillating flows of fractional Burgers’ fluid. The fractional calculus approach in the constitutive relationship model is introduced and a fractional Burgers’ model is built. The exact solution of the oscillating motions of a fractional Burgers’ fluid due to cosine and sine oscillations of an infinite flat plate are established with the help of integral transforms (Fourier sine and Laplace transforms). The expressions for the velocity field and the resulting shear stress that have been obtained, presented under integral and series form in terms of the generalized Mittag-Leffler function, satisfy all imposed initial and boundary conditions. Finall
... Show MoreAbstract Objectives: Malocclusion was and remains one of the most common problems which affects the psyche and social status of the individual, so the estimation of the malocclusion severity and needs a percentage of orthodontic treatment of Iraqi patients is the aim of this study. Method: A randomly selected 150 pairs of study models (48 male and 102 female) were involved in this study for patients attending an orthodontic clinic at College of Dentistry/ University of Baghdad seeking for treatment. The DAI scores were collected according to WHO guidelines directly from the study model with a digital caliper, score was calculated using the regression equation of 10 occlusal traits. The dental casts were classified into four groups to determ
... Show MoreElectric Quadrupole transitions are calculated for beryllium isotopes (9, 10, 12 and 14). Calculations with configuration mixing shell model usually under estimate the measured E2 transition strength. Although the consideration of a large basis no core shell model with 2ℏtruncations for 9,10,12 and14 where all major shells s, p, sd are used, fail to describe the measured reduced transition strength without normalizing the matrix elements with effective charges to compensate for the discarded space. Instead of using constant effective charges, excitations out of major shell space are taken into account through a microscopic theory which allows particle–hole excitations from the core and model space orbits to all higher orbits
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The mechanism of hydrogen (H2) gas sensor in the range of 50-200 ppm of RF-sputtered annealed zinc oxide (ZnO) and without annealing was studied. The X-ray Diffraction( XRD) results showed that the Zn metal was completely converted to ZnO with a polycrystalline structure. The I–V characteristics of the device (PT/ZnO/Pt) measured at room temperature before and after annealing at 450 oC for4h, from which a linear relationship has been observed. The sensors had a maximum response to H2 at 350 oC for annealing ZnO and showed stable behavior for detecting H2 gases in the range of 50 to 200 ppm. The annealed film exhibited hig |
The possible effect of the collective motion in heavy nuclei has been investigated in the framework of Nilson model. This effect has been searched realistically by calculating the level density, which plays a significant role in the description of the reaction cross sections in the statistical nuclear theory. The nuclear level density parameter for some deformed radioisotopes of (even- even) target nuclei (Dy, W and Os) is calculated, by taking into consideration the collective motion for excitation modes for the observed nuclear spectra near the neutron binding energy. The method employed in the present work assumes equidistant spacing of the collective coupled state bands of the considered isotopes. The present calculated results for f
... Show MoreAl-Huweizah Marsh is considered as the largest in Iraq. This research aims to maintain thesustainability of Al-Huweizah Marsh under all circumstances and within the limits of the
available natural resources from the Iraqi side and the absence of feeding from the Iranian sidedue to the recent Iranian separation dike along the international boundaries within the marsh.
Twelve scenarios have been suggested as a first step to restore the whole marsh. But the
uncontrolled Iranian feeders and exiguity of their discharges recently, it was necessary to studyonly the northern part of the marsh as an alternative case to ensure reasonable amounts of waterfor the purpose of maintaining and restore the marsh. Hydrological routing model was
In this study, we attempt to provide healthcare service to the pilgrims. This study describes how a multimedia courseware can be used in making the pilgrims aware of the common diseases that are present in Saudi Arabia during the pilgrimage. The multimedia courseware will also be used in providing some information about the symptoms of these diseases, and how each of them can be treated. The multimedia courseware contains a virtual representation of a hospital, some videos of actual cases of patients, and authentic learning activities intended to enhance health competencies during the pilgrimage. An examination of the courseware was conducted so as to study the manner in which the elements of the courseware are applied in real-time learn
... Show MoreIn this work, a large part of Baghdad University campus has been selected. The determination of Geoidal height for the local area requires Ground Control Points which both Ellipsoidal and Orthometric heights are known to compute the difference between them. The first step of the leveling process began by selected the Ground Control Points (GCPs) around the area of the work, and then divided them into two groups of the network traverse stations. They were leveled and adjusted depend on the number of the Bench Marks (B.M.s). Total Station TS (Nikon Nivo 5C) and Global Positioning System (GPS-Garmin 78 map) are used to do this application. The aim of the proposed work was to determine the height of the Geoid surface in the study area. The Geoi
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