Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
In this paper, a new method of selection variables is presented to select some essential variables from large datasets. The new model is a modified version of the Elastic Net model. The modified Elastic Net variable selection model has been summarized in an algorithm. It is applied for Leukemia dataset that has 3051 variables (genes) and 72 samples. In reality, working with this kind of dataset is not accessible due to its large size. The modified model is compared to some standard variable selection methods. Perfect classification is achieved by applying the modified Elastic Net model because it has the best performance. All the calculations that have been done for this paper are in
In this paper, we study the incorporation of the commensalism interaction and harvesting on the Lotka–Volterra food chain model. The system provides one commensal prey, one harvested prey, and two predators. A set of preliminary results in local bifurcation analysis around each equilibrium point for the proposed model is discussed, such as saddle-node, transcritical and pitchfork. Some numerical analysis to confirm the accruing of local bifurcation is illustrated. To back up the conclusions of the mathematical study, a numerical simulation of the model is carried out with the help of the MATLAB program. It can be concluded that the system's coexistence can be achieved as long as the harvesting rate on the second prey population is
... Show MoreAn analytical method and a two-dimensional finite element model for treating the problem of laser heating and melting has been applied to aluminum 2519T87and stainless steel 304. The time needed to melt and vaporize and the effects of laser power density on the melt depth for two metals are also obtained. In addition, the depth profile and time evolution of the temperature before melting and after melting are given, in which a discontinuity in the temperature gradient is obviously observed due to the latent heat of fusion and the increment in thermal conductivity in solid phase. The analytical results that induced by laser irradiation is in good agreement with numerical results.
This paper deals with finding an approximate solution to the index-2 time-varying linear differential algebraic control system based on the theory of variational formulation. The solution of index-2 time-varying differential algebraic equations (DAEs) is the critical point of the equivalent variational formulation. In addition, the variational problem is transformed from the indirect into direct method by using a generalized Ritz bases approach. The approximate solution is found by solving an explicit linear algebraic equation, which makes the proposed technique reliable and efficient for many physical problems. From the numerical results, it can be implied that very good efficiency, accuracy, and simplicity of the pre
... Show MoreThe current research aims to identify the time-management skills based on the post-test of the experimental group as well as to examine the effect of a training program on developing the skills of managing time among the study sample. To achieve the research objectives, the researcher designed a scale of time management skill included (30) paragraphs. The research reached that the training program is significantly effective in managing and organizing time. There are statistically significant differences in pre-posttest between the experimental and control groups.
The presented study investigated the scheduling regarding jobs on a single machine. Each job will be processed with no interruptions and becomes available for the processing at time 0. The aim is finding a processing order with regard to jobs, minimizing total completion time , total late work , and maximal tardiness which is an NP-hard problem. In the theoretical part of the present work, the mathematical formula for the examined problem will be presented, and a sub-problem of the original problem of minimizing the multi-objective functions is introduced. Also, then the importance regarding the dominance rule (DR) that could be applied to the problem to improve good solutions will be shown. While in the practical part, two
... Show MoreBackground: The timing of eruption of permanent teeth is of considerable importance to the dental health planning for diagnostic, preventive and therapeutic measures for children and teenagers. The purposes of this study were to determine timing of maxillary and mandibular permanent teeth emergence (except third molars) and to evaluate the effect nutritional status by anthropometric measures on the eruption time of permanent teeth, investigations had been done according to jaw and gender variations. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted among four to fifteen years old children and teenagers from kindergarten and schools in Basrah city in the south region of Iraq. The total sample composed of 1807 children and teenagers that were
... Show MoreThis work studies with produce of light fuel fractions of gasoline, kerosene and gas oil from treatment of residual matter that will be obtained from the solvent extraction process as by product from refined lubricate to improve oil viscosity index in any petroleum refinery. The percentage of this byproduct is approximately 10% according to all feed (crude oil) in the petroleum refinery process. The objective of this research is to study the effect of the residence time parameter on the thermal cracking process of the byproduct feed at a constant temperature, (400 °C). The first step of this treatment is the thermal cracking of this byproduct material by a constructed batch reactor occupied with control device at a selective range of re
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