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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Regression shrinkage and selection variables via an adaptive elastic net model
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Abstract<p>In this paper, a new method of selection variables is presented to select some essential variables from large datasets. The new model is a modified version of the Elastic Net model. The modified Elastic Net variable selection model has been summarized in an algorithm. It is applied for Leukemia dataset that has 3051 variables (genes) and 72 samples. In reality, working with this kind of dataset is not accessible due to its large size. The modified model is compared to some standard variable selection methods. Perfect classification is achieved by applying the modified Elastic Net model because it has the best performance. All the calculations that have been done for this paper are in </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Sep 26 2023
Journal Name
Brazilian Journal Of Biometrics
Bifurcation analysis of commensalism intraction and harvisting on food chain model
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In this paper, we study the incorporation of the commensalism interaction and harvesting on the Lotka–Volterra food chain model. The system provides one commensal prey, one harvested prey, and two predators. A set of preliminary results in local bifurcation analysis around each equilibrium point for the proposed model is discussed, such as saddle-node, transcritical and pitchfork. Some numerical analysis to confirm the accruing of local bifurcation is illustrated. To back up the conclusions of the mathematical study, a numerical simulation of the model is carried out with the help of the MATLAB program. It can be concluded that the system's coexistence can be achieved as long as the harvesting rate on the second prey population is

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Heating and Melting Model Induced by Laser Beam in Solid Material
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An analytical method and a two-dimensional finite element model for treating the problem of laser heating and melting has been applied to aluminum 2519T87and stainless steel 304. The time needed to melt and vaporize and the effects of laser power density on the melt depth for two metals are also obtained. In addition, the depth profile and time evolution of the temperature before melting and after melting are given, in which a discontinuity in the temperature gradient is obviously observed due to the latent heat of fusion and the increment in thermal conductivity in solid phase. The analytical results that induced by  laser irradiation is in good agreement with numerical results.

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Solution of Time-Varying Index-2 Linear Differential Algebraic Control Systems Via A Variational Formulation Technique
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    This paper deals with finding an approximate solution to the index-2 time-varying linear differential algebraic control system based on the theory of variational formulation. The solution of index-2 time-varying differential algebraic equations (DAEs) is the critical point of the equivalent variational formulation. In addition, the variational problem is transformed from the indirect into direct method by using a generalized Ritz bases approach. The approximate solution is found by solving an explicit linear algebraic equation, which makes the proposed technique reliable and efficient for many physical problems. From the numerical results, it can be implied that very good efficiency, accuracy, and simplicity of the pre

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of a Training Program to Develop the Skill of Organizing Time for the Kindergarten Department Students
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The current research aims to identify the time-management skills based on the post-test of the experimental group as well as to examine the effect of a training program on developing the skills of managing time among the study sample. To achieve the research objectives, the researcher designed a scale of time management skill included (30) paragraphs. The research reached that the training program is significantly effective in managing and organizing time. There are statistically significant differences in pre-posttest between the experimental and control groups.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2024
Journal Name
Egyptian Journal Of Botany
Molecular data unravels three freshwater peridinioids in the Baghdad Island Tourist Lake, with reporting Palatinus apiculatus (Peridiniopsidaceae, Peridiniales) as a new record for the Iraqi algal flora
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 10 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal For Computer Science And Mathematics
Solving tri-criteria: total completion time, total late work, and maximum earliness by using exact, and heuristic methods on single machine scheduling problem
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The presented study investigated the scheduling regarding  jobs on a single machine. Each  job will be processed with no interruptions and becomes available for the processing at time 0. The aim is finding a processing order with regard to jobs, minimizing total completion time , total late work , and maximal tardiness  which is an NP-hard problem. In the theoretical part of the present work, the mathematical formula for the examined problem will be presented, and a sub-problem of the original problem of minimizing the multi-objective functions  is introduced. Also, then the importance regarding the dominance rule (DR) that could be applied to the problem to improve good solutions will be shown. While in the practical part, two

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Time of Emergence of Permanent Teeth and Impact of Nutritional Status among 4-15 Years Old Children and Teenagers in Basrah City /Iraq
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Background: The timing of eruption of permanent teeth is of considerable importance to the dental health planning for diagnostic, preventive and therapeutic measures for children and teenagers. The purposes of this study were to determine timing of maxillary and mandibular permanent teeth emergence (except third molars) and to evaluate the effect nutritional status by anthropometric measures on the eruption time of permanent teeth, investigations had been done according to jaw and gender variations. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted among four to fifteen years old children and teenagers from kindergarten and schools in Basrah city in the south region of Iraq. The total sample composed of 1807 children and teenagers that were

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 04 2014
Journal Name
Engineering And Technology Journal
Optimization of the Time Required for Determination of the Total Dissolved Salts in Soil ‫
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Study the Effect of Residence Time Parameters on Thermal Cracking Extract Phase Lubricating Oil
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This work studies with produce of light fuel fractions of gasoline, kerosene and gas oil from treatment of residual matter that will be obtained from the solvent extraction process as by product from refined lubricate to improve oil viscosity index in any petroleum refinery. The percentage of this byproduct is approximately 10% according to all feed (crude oil) in the petroleum refinery process. The objective of this research is to study the effect of the residence time parameter on the thermal cracking process of the byproduct feed at a constant temperature, (400 °C). The first step of this treatment is the thermal cracking of this byproduct material by a constructed batch reactor occupied with control device at a selective range of re

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