Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
In the last decade, 3D models gained interest in many applications, such as games, the medical field, and manufacture. It is necessary to protect these models from unauthorized copying, distribution, and editing. Digital watermarking is the best way to solve this problem. This paper introduces a robust watermarking method by embedding the watermark in the low-frequency domain, then selecting the coarsest level for embedding the watermark based on the strength factor. The invisibility of the watermark for the proposed algorithm is tested by using different measurements, such as HD and PSNR. The robustness was tested by using different types of attacks; the correlation coefficient was applied for the evaluati
... Show MoreThe objective of this study is to highlight the skills of office managers and it's impact on the effectiveness of time management in the institutes and faculties of middle technical university and a group of cognitive and practical aims. The managers skills forms mthe modern trend and the main source to provide organizations with highly skilled managers with distinctive performance and because of the sharp changes in the environment which today's organizations works in it , business organizations generally and managers especially realise the importance of time management and it's role in achieving competitive advantage . The problem of this study raised from this point which reflect the extent of departments managers realisation
... Show MoreThe experiment was carried out in the field of botanical garden belonging to the Department of Biology Sciences, College of Education for Pure Science -Ibn AL-Haitham ,Baghdad University. for the growing season. 2014 -2013 to study the effect of the electromagnetic field which included five different intensities (0,5,10,15,20) MT and three periods of time, namely, (1,2,3) an hour and their interaction on some of the morphological characteristics of the safflower plant . designed experiment by Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) and three replicates per treatment, compared to the average using less significant difference at the level of probability (0.05) , the results showed the following:- 1-Exposing seeds to diffe
... Show More<p>The objective of this paper is to study the dynamical behavior of an aquatic food web system. A mathematical model that includes nutrients, phytoplankton and zooplankton is proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that, the phytoplankton divided into two compartments namely toxic phytoplankton which produces a toxic substance as a defensive strategy against predation by zooplankton, and a nontoxic phytoplankton. All the feeding processes in this food web are formulating according to the Lotka-Volterra functional response. This model is represented mathematically by the set of nonlinear differential equations. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of this model are investigated. The local and global stability
... Show MoreThe paper has been summarized into the following:
Chapter one: the researcher deals with the problem of the paper, the most important points and the terminology. Chapter two: the researcher deals Surat Luqman from the Aya 12-19 , (the demonstration, the explanations, the values ). In chapter three the researcher deals with Surat AL-Hujurat from Aya 6-12, (the demonstration, the explanations, the values ). Chapter four include (the educational properties for individual and society, the educational applications, and the most important indicators in the texts). Chapter five include the results , the conclusions and the recommendations. One of the basic results that the Quran is a complete educational curriculum, and the texts of Surat Lu
In this work, we study two species of predator with two species of prey model, where the two species of prey live in two diverse habitats and have the ability to group-defense. Only one of the two predators tends to switch between the habitats. The mathematical model has at most 13 possible equilibrium points, one of which is the point of origin, two are axial, tow are interior points and the others are boundary points. The model with , where n is the switching index, is discussed regarding the boundedness of its solutions and the local stability of its equilibrium points. In addition, a basin of attraction was created for the interior point. Finally, three numerical examples were given to support the theoretical results.
In this paper, a new method of selection variables is presented to select some essential variables from large datasets. The new model is a modified version of the Elastic Net model. The modified Elastic Net variable selection model has been summarized in an algorithm. It is applied for Leukemia dataset that has 3051 variables (genes) and 72 samples. In reality, working with this kind of dataset is not accessible due to its large size. The modified model is compared to some standard variable selection methods. Perfect classification is achieved by applying the modified Elastic Net model because it has the best performance. All the calculations that have been done for this paper are in
In this paper, we study the incorporation of the commensalism interaction and harvesting on the Lotka–Volterra food chain model. The system provides one commensal prey, one harvested prey, and two predators. A set of preliminary results in local bifurcation analysis around each equilibrium point for the proposed model is discussed, such as saddle-node, transcritical and pitchfork. Some numerical analysis to confirm the accruing of local bifurcation is illustrated. To back up the conclusions of the mathematical study, a numerical simulation of the model is carried out with the help of the MATLAB program. It can be concluded that the system's coexistence can be achieved as long as the harvesting rate on the second prey population is
... Show More