Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
This work presents the study of the dark current density and the capacitance for porous silicon prepared by photo-electrochemical etching for n-type silicon with laser power density of 10mw/cm2 and wavelength (650nm) under different anodization time (30,40,50,60) minute. The results obtained from this study shows different chara that different characteristic of porous diffecteristics for the different porous Silicon layers.
Cloud Computing is a mass platform to serve high volume data from multi-devices and numerous technologies. Cloud tenants have a high demand to access their data faster without any disruptions. Therefore, cloud providers are struggling to ensure every individual data is secured and always accessible. Hence, an appropriate replication strategy capable of selecting essential data is required in cloud replication environments as the solution. This paper proposed a Crucial File Selection Strategy (CFSS) to address poor response time in a cloud replication environment. A cloud simulator called CloudSim is used to conduct the necessary experiments, and results are presented to evidence the enhancement on replication performance. The obtained an
... Show MoreThis research presents a study of using an additive for the objective of increasing the setting time of a material used in several aspects in the constructional field, this material is “Local-Gypsum” which is locally called “Joss”, and the additive used in this study is “Trees Glue Powder” denoted by “TGP”. Nine mixtures of Local-gypsum (joss) had been experimented in the current study to find their setting time, these mixes were divided into three groups according to their water-joss ratios (W/J) (0.3, 0.4 and 0.5), and each group was sub-divided into three sub-groups according to their TGP contents (0.0%, 0.3% and 0.6%). It was found that, when TGP is added with the
The survival analysis is one of the modern methods of analysis that is based on the fact that the dependent variable represents time until the event concerned in the study. There are many survival models that deal with the impact of explanatory factors on the likelihood of survival, including the models proposed by the world, David Cox, one of the most important and common models of survival, where it consists of two functions, one of which is a parametric function that does not depend on the survival time and the other a nonparametric function that depends on times of survival, which the Cox model is defined as a semi parametric model, The set of parametric models that depend on the time-to-event distribution parameters such as
... Show MoreIn this paper, an adaptive active disturbance rejection control is newly designed for precise angular steering position tracking of the uncertain and nonlinear SBW system with time delay communications. The proposed adaptive active disturbance rejection control comprises the following two elements: (1) An adaptive extended state observer and (2) an adaptive state error feedback controller. The adaptive extended state observer with adaptive gains is employed for estimating the unmeasured velocity, acceleration, and compound disturbance which consists of system parameter uncertainties, nonlinearities, exterior disturbances, and time delay in which the observer gains are dynamically adjusted based on the estimation error to enhance est
... Show MoreObjective: Aimed to asses the role of PT estimation in early diagnosis and predicting the extent and the outcome of head injury with ICerH and/ or Contusion
Method :PT was measured by Digiclot 818
Group –1: One hundred consecutive head injured patients admitted at Neurosurgical and Al Ramadi teaching hospitals were initially estimated for prothrombin time and subsequently scanned
Group-2 : Two hundred twenty five consecutive non scanned head injured patients admitted to Neurosurgical and Al Ramadi teaching hospitals were estimated with prothrombin time at the time of insult and subsequently for the next two weeks Al – Kindy Col Med J 2012; Vol. 8 No. 1 P: 54
Clinical and neurological evaluation (GCS) score in addition to
Indium Antimonide (InSb) thin films were grown onto well cleaned glass substrates at substrate temperatures (473 K) by flash evaporation. X-ray diffraction studies confirm the polycrystalline of the films and the films show preferential orientation along the (111) plane .The particle size increases with the increase of annealing time .The transmission spectra of prepared samples were found to be in the range (400-5000 cm-1 ) from FTIR study . This indicates that the crystallinity is improved in the films deposited at higher annealing time.
Using photo electrochemical etching technique (PEC), porous silicon (PS) layers were produced on n-type silicon (Si) wafers to generate porous silicon for n-type with an orientation of (111) The results of etching time were investigated at: (5,10,15 min). X-ray diffraction experiments revealed differences between the surface of the sample sheet and the synthesized porous silicon. The largest crystal size is (30 nm) and the lowest crystal size is (28.6 nm) The analysis of Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) and Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope (FESEM) were used to research the morphology of porous silicon layer. As etching time increased, AFM findings showed that root mean square (RMS) of roughness and po
... Show MoreThe control of an aerial flexible joint robot (FJR) manipulator system with underactuation is a difficult task due to unavoidable factors, including, coupling, underactuation, nonlinearities, unmodeled uncertainties, and unpredictable external disturbances. To mitigate those issues, a new robust fixed-time sliding mode control (FxTSMC) is proposed by using a fixed-time sliding mode observer (FxTSMO) for the trajectory tracking problem of the FJR attached to the drones system. First, the underactuated FJR is comprehensively modeled and converted to a canonical model by employing two state transformations for ease of the control design. Then, based on the availability of the measured states, a cascaded FxTSMO (CFxTSMO) is constructed to estim
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