Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Unconfined Compressive Strength is considered the most important parameter of rock strength properties affecting the rock failure criteria. Various research have developed rock strength for specific lithology to estimate high-accuracy value without a core. Previous analyses did not account for the formation's numerous lithologies and interbedded layers. The main aim of the present study is to select the suitable correlation to predict the UCS for hole depth of formation without separating the lithology. Furthermore, the second aim is to detect an adequate input parameter among set wireline to determine the UCS by using data of three wells along ten formations (Tanuma, Khasib, Mishrif, Rumaila, Ahmady, Maudud, Nahr Um
... Show MoreThe objective of this study is to apply Artificial Neural Network for heat transfer analysis of shell-and-tube heat exchangers widely used in power plants and refineries. Practical data was obtained by using industrial heat exchanger operating in power generation department of Dura refinery. The commonly used Back Propagation (BP) algorithm was used to train and test networks by divided the data to three samples (training, validation and testing data) to give more approach data with actual case. Inputs of the neural network include inlet water temperature, inlet air temperature and mass flow rate of air. Two outputs (exit water temperature to cooling tower and exit air temperature to second stage of air compressor) were taken in ANN.
... Show MoreIn this research, a qualitative seismic processing and interpretation is made up
through using 3D-seismic reflection data of East-Baghdad oil field in the central part
of Iraq. We used the new technique, this technique is used for the direct hydrocarbons
indicators (DHI) called Amplitude Versus Offset or Angle (AVO or AVA) technique.
For this purposes a cube of 3D seismic data (Pre-stack) was chosen in addition to the
available data of wells Z-2 and Z-24. These data were processed and interpreted by
utilizing the programs of the HRS-9* software where we have studied and analyzed
the AVO within Zubair Formation. Many AVO processing operations were carried
out which include AVO processing (Pre-conditioning for gathe
This paper calculated the Duration Magnitude (MD) equation using data from the Iraqi Meteorological Organization and seismology (IMOS). It is an empirically determined equation and expressed as:
The epicentral distance and local geological conditions affect the duration of the coda. The data is obtained from 7 seismic stations in the network. The new proposed duration magnitude equation results from applying linear regression analysis to the data of a seismic signal duration with correlation coefficient R2=0.76; and a standard deviation value of 0.049. Station corrections indicated by Sc are also specified for the seismic stations that range from -0.024 to + 0.02.
The physical and elastic characteristics of rocks determine rock strengths in general. Rock strength is frequently assessed using porosity well logs such as neutron and sonic logs. The essential criteria for estimating rock mechanic parameters in petroleum engineering research are uniaxial compressive strength and elastic modulus. Indirect estimation using well-log data is necessary to measure these variables. This study attempts to create a single regression model that can accurately forecast rock mechanic characteristics for the Harth Carbonate Formation in the Fauqi oil field. According to the findings of this study, petrophysical parameters are reliable indexes for determining rock mechanical properties having good performance p
... Show MoreThe objective of this research is to select the most suitable drilling location of new groundwater exploration wells, with a decision-making tool from Geographic Information System (GIS). The optimum location will be evaluated base on the hydro-geoelectrical parameter derived from Vertical Electrical Sound (VES) including Longitudinal Conductance, the thickness of the aquifer, the apparent resistivity and Transmissivity. From the Geo-electrical method (VES) the finds shows that the aquifers in the study area have Apparent Resistivity ranging from 0.32 to 40.24 Ωm, Thickness between 0.21 m to 15.06 m, Longitudinal Conductance ranging from 0.006 to 10.246Ω-1 and Transmissivity ranging from 0.14 to
... Show MoreIn recent years, the Global Navigation Satellite Services (GNSS) technology has been frequently employed for monitoring the Earth crust deformation and movement. Such applications necessitate high positional accuracy that can be achieved through processing GPS/GNSS data with scientific software such as BERENSE, GAMIT, and GIPSY-OSIS. Nevertheless, these scientific softwares are sophisticated and have not been published as free open source software. Therefore, this study has been conducted to evaluate an alternative solution, GNSS online processing services, which may obtain this privilege freely. In this study, eight years of GNSS raw data for TEHN station, which located in Iran, have been downloaded from UNAVCO website
... Show MoreThe present study tackles the scientific model and the mechanisms of operating in the formation of the image of the artistic work to create a scene that cares for the aesthetic decoration through raw and techniques and employing them to express the aesthetic values that care for what is not familiar and deviation from the familiar in the visual exhibition and the care for the employment of the technical abilities, lighting, and sound as well as the employment of multiple materials. The research presents the objectives of his study in the exhibition hall of Natural History Museum (University of Baghdad) to create an aesthetic and expressive state at the same time. Then, in the theoretical framework the researcher traces the experiments of
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