Rainfall in Nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. This has taken a more pronounced dimension due to climate change. In this study, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall test statistical tools were employed to analyze rainfall trends and patterns in Gombe metropolis between 1990 and 2020 and the ARIMA model was used for making the forecast for ten (10) years. Daily rainfall data of 31 years obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NIMET) was used for the study. The daily rainfall data was subjected to several analyses. Standard precipitation index showed that alternation of wet and dry period conditions had been witnessed in the study area. The result obtained showed that there is an upward trend in the annual rainfall amount received in Gombe over the last 31 years at a rate of 3.98 mm/year. The results for the forecast shows that the annual rainfall to be received in Gombe continues in a range above the mean which serves as an indication that the decade will experience more wet years than dry years. The study concludes that the pattern of rainfall in Gombe is a cyclic pattern. The current trend may affect soil moisture, flooding and subsequently lead to ecological change. The study recommends that inhabitants of the study areas should plan their cropping season based on climatic information of their area.
It is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s
... Show MoreThe Artificial Neural Network methodology is a very important & new subjects that build's the models for Analyzing, Data Evaluation, Forecasting & Controlling without depending on an old model or classic statistic method that describe the behavior of statistic phenomenon, the methodology works by simulating the data to reach a robust optimum model that represent the statistic phenomenon & we can use the model in any time & states, we used the Box-Jenkins (ARMAX) approach for comparing, in this paper depends on the received power to build a robust model for forecasting, analyzing & controlling in the sod power, the received power come from
... Show MoreIn this article, the high accuracy and effectiveness of forecasting global gold prices are verified using a hybrid machine learning algorithm incorporating an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Gray Wolf Optimizer (GWO). The hybrid approach had successes that enabled it to be a good strategy for practical use. The ARIMA-ANFIS hybrid methodology was used to forecast global gold prices. The ARIMA model is implemented on real data, and then its nonlinear residuals are predicted by ANFIS, ANFIS-PSO, and ANFIS-GWO. The results indicate that hybrid models improve the accuracy of single ARIMA and ANFIS models in forecasting. Finally, a comparison was made between the hybrid foreca
... Show MoreRecent technological developments in the mass media a major paradigm shift in important segments of society, particularly among young people in particular social networking sites including (Facebook) .
it was able to link the sprawling parts of the world and paved the way for all the communities of convergence and exchange views, ideas and desires as provided by their ability to communicate through the use of video clips,pictures,share files, chat, communicate and direct interaction between the audience for this the means. Wondered problem Find the role that can be played using the university youth to the social networking site (Facebook ) to modify their attitudes or their interest in Iraqi society issues, With focused research objec
Teachers play a critical role in planning, organizing, coordinating, monitoring, and instructing, hence the topic of leadership styles receives a lot of attention. As a result, the physical education school is regarded as the most significant component of the educational process because it has the ability to weave together the teaching and educational skills, attitudes, and capacities that its students develop. Fits into their identities through her relationship with them. Teachers play a critical role in planning, organizing, coordinating, monitoring, and instructing, hence the topic of leadership styles receives a lot of attention. As a result, the physical education school is regarded the most significant aspect in the educational proces
... Show MoreIn the region of the north of Iraq using the method of analyzing thin section microfacies to 38 of rockyslices which were gathered from a place near Aqra city. These slides are divided into seven microfacies depending on lithologcal component and fossils.
1) Dolostone facies.
2)Recrystallized bioclastic wackestone facies.
3) Bioclastic packstone microfacies
4)Sucrosic dolomite facies.
5) Bioclastic grainstone in microfacies.
According to water energy, these facies were divided to three zone:
- a) Low energy environment.
- b) Transitional zone.
- c) High energy environment.
Advanced strategies for production forecasting, operational optimization, and decision-making enhancement have been employed through reservoir management and machine learning (ML) techniques. A hybrid model is established to predict future gas output in a gas reservoir through historical production data, including reservoir pressure, cumulative gas production, and cumulative water production for 67 months. The procedure starts with data preprocessing and applies seasonal exponential smoothing (SES) to capture seasonality and trends in production data, while an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) captures complicated spatiotemporal connections. The history replication in the models is quantified for accuracy through metric keys such as m
... Show MoreThis study is considered to be the first on this sector of Tigris River after 2003, to evaluate the effect of Tharthar Arm on the composition and diversity of Copepoda in Tigris River. Six sampling sites were selected; two on the Tharthar Arm and four sites along the Tigris River, one before the confluence as a control site and the others downstream the confluence; thirty-five copepod taxa were recorded, 34 taxa in the Tigris River and 25 taxa in the Tharthar Arm.
The highest density of Copepoda was in site 2 at Tharthar Arm was 265584.2 Ind./m3 lead to an increasing in Copepoda density in Tigris River from 63878.2 Ind./m3 in site 1 before the confluence to 127198.3 Ind./m3 in site 4 immediately downstream the confluence. Also, the me
As a consequence of a terrorist attack, people may experience posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and lack of feeling secure in relationships. This longitudinal study aimed to examine the prevalence of PTSD symptoms over time, the relationship between adult attachment styles and PTSD, as well as their association with degree of exposure, and finally to consider the distribution and the trajectory of attachment styles. The sample consisted of 235 students (M=125, F=110) who were exposed to different levels of trauma intensity in response to a bombing attack. Participants were recruited and assessed approximately 1 month and 5 months after the attack using a battery of questionnaires. Findings revealed, as expected, that 79.5% of the part
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