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Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria

Rainfall in Nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. This has taken a more pronounced dimension due to climate change. In this study, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall test statistical tools were employed to analyze rainfall trends and patterns in Gombe metropolis between 1990 and 2020 and the ARIMA model was used for making the forecast for ten (10) years. Daily rainfall data of 31 years obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NIMET) was used for the study. The daily rainfall data was subjected to several analyses. Standard precipitation index showed that alternation of wet and dry period conditions had been witnessed in the study area. The result obtained showed that there is an upward trend in the annual rainfall amount received in Gombe over the last 31 years at a rate of 3.98 mm/year. The results for the forecast shows that the annual rainfall to be received in Gombe continues in a range above the mean which serves as an indication that the decade will experience more wet years than dry years. The study concludes that the pattern of rainfall in Gombe is a cyclic pattern. The current trend may affect soil moisture, flooding and subsequently lead to ecological change. The study recommends that inhabitants of the study areas should plan their cropping season based on climatic information of their area.

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Statistical Analysis of Extreme Rainfall Data in Baghdad City

Studying extreme precipitation is very important in Iraq. In particular, the last decade witnessed an increasing trend in extreme precipitation as the climate change. Some of which caused a disastrous consequences on social and economic environment in many parts of the country. In this paper a statistical analysis of rainfall data is performed. Annual maximum rainfall data obtained from monthly records for a period of 127 years (1887-2013 inclusive) at Baghdad metrology station have been analyzed. The three distributions chosen to fit the data were Gumbel, Fréchet and the generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Using the maximum likelihood method, results showed that the GEV distribution was the best followed by Fréchet distribut

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
North and north-eastern wind and its impact on the racial temperature and humidity in Iraq

The study area is witnessing divergence where I am North wind North East wind as we find that the north wind is getting replicated as we move from the south, The reason can be attributed to the nature of the surface of the region, with at least repeat this wind the northern region to the presence of mountain ranges, while we find that energizes the surface in the center and south helped to increase repeat this wind gusts, It also finds that the North wind East prevail in the northern region and least replicated as we move from the north to the south and to the fact that North stations are within blowing this wind sites for the circles near the display of high pressure located centers to the north-east, north and distancing itself from pa

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Bio Web Of Conferences
Forecasting Cryptocurrency Market Trends with Machine Learning and Deep Learning

Cryptocurrency became an important participant on the financial market as it attracts large investments and interests. With this vibrant setting, the proposed cryptocurrency price prediction tool stands as a pivotal element providing direction to both enthusiasts and investors in a market that presents itself grounded on numerous complexities of digital currency. Employing feature selection enchantment and dynamic trio of ARIMA, LSTM, Linear Regression techniques the tool creates a mosaic for users to analyze data using artificial intelligence towards forecasts in real-time crypto universe. While users navigate the algorithmic labyrinth, they are offered a vast and glittering selection of high-quality cryptocurrencies to select. The

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Changing Patterns of Thyroid Pathology and Trends of Surgical Treatment

Background: There were definite changes in pathologies involving thyroid gland allover the world with increasing incidence of thyrotoxicosis and differentiated malignancies.
Patients and methods: 224 patients were operated upon by the same surgeon during 15 years period. Those patients were divided into two groups (GI from June 1990 up to June 2000) and (GII from June 2000-June 2005).
Results: female to male ratio was 3.3:1. The most common presentation among both groups was Multinodular goiter (MNG) 76.8%. toxic goiter was recorded in 24% of patient with increase among GII patients. A significant effect of stress on the increasing incidence of thyrotoxicosis was elicited in more than 50% of patients w

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 24 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using Annual Rainfall to Estimate the Surface Runoff and Groundwater Recharge in Lialan Basin (Southeast Kirkuk - North of Iraq)

The present study intends to estimate the surface runoff and groundwater
recharge in Lialan basin using the soil conservation service method (curve number)
and chloride mass balance method (CMB) respectively. Lialan basin is located at the
southeast part of Kirkuk governorate, between longitudes (44° 21' 00" E - 44° 42'
00" E) and latitudes (35° 7' 30" N - 35° 28' 30" N) , which covering an area of about
436 km2 and contains many geological formations. In this study, based on the
annual rainfall data extending from (1970 - 2016) obtained from the Kirkuk
meteorological station, the surface runoff was calculated using the curve number
method (CN), and found to be equal to 90.4 mm/year, which represent 26.07 % of

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Publication Date
Sun May 26 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Integrated Geophysical Data and GIS Technique to Forecast the Potential Groundwater Locations in Part of South Eastern Nigeria

     The objective of this research is to select the most suitable drilling location of new groundwater exploration wells, with a decision-making tool from Geographic Information System (GIS). The optimum location will be evaluated base on the hydro-geoelectrical parameter derived from Vertical Electrical Sound (VES) including Longitudinal Conductance, the thickness of the aquifer, the apparent resistivity and Transmissivity. From the Geo-electrical method (VES) the finds shows that the aquifers in the study area have Apparent Resistivity ranging from 0.32 to 40.24 Ωm, Thickness between 0.21 m to 15.06 m, Longitudinal Conductance ranging from 0.006 to 10.246Ω-1 and Transmissivity ranging from 0.14 to

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 26 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Time Series Analysis of Baghdad Rainfall Using ARIMA Method

Monthly rainfall data of Baghdad meteorological station were taken to study the time behavior of these data series. Significant fluctuation,very slight increasing trend and significant seasonality were noticed. Several ARIMA models were tested and the best one were checked for the adequacy. It is found that the SEASONAL ARIMA model of the orders SARIMA(2,1,3)x(0,1,1) is the best model where the residual of this model exhibits white noise property, uncorrelateness and they are normally distributed. According to this model, rainfall forecast for four years was also achieved and showing similar trend and extent of the original data.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 08 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Delineation of groundwater aquifers using VES and 2D imaging techniques in north Badra area, Eastern Iraq

The resistivity survey was carried out by using vertical electrical sounding (VES) and 2D imaging techniques in the northern Badra area, Eastern Iraq. Eleven VES points distributed on two parallel profiles and six 2D imaging stations were applied using long survey lines.
In general, two types of aquifers are recognized in the study area. The first is the Quaternary aquifer, which appears in all geological sections and inverse model of 2D imaging stations (2DS).This aquifer can be divided into upper and lower aquifers as shown in (2DS1), (2DS3), and (2DS4). Generally, the thickness of this aquifer ranges between (30-200 m) which occurs at a depth of (10-30m) according to geological sections, while its thickness ranges between (35-180m)

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 11 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Petroleum Research And Studies
The Structural and Stress Analysis of Hemrin North Structure, North of Iraq.

  The study focused on the results of first paleostress from thrust fault slip data on Tertiary age of Hemrin North Structure, North of Iraq. The stress inversion was performed for fault slip data using an improved right dihedral model, and then followed by rotational optimization (Georient Software). The trend of the principal stress axes (σ1, σ2 and σ3) and the ratio of the principal stress differences (R) show the main paleostress field is NE-SW compression regime. As well as using Lisle graph and Mohr diagram to determine the magnitudes of palestress.  The values paleostress of the study area were σ1=1430 bars, σ2=632 bars and σ3=166 bar. The large magnitudes of the primary stress axes could be attributed to active tecto

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 18 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Determination of Porosity and Permeability of Darnah Formation at Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar-North Eastern Libya

The study area is located at AL Jabal AL-Akhdar region North Eastern part of Libya. The study includes (23) fresh samples that are taken from Darnah limestone Formation, these samples were distributed on and covered about (210) km2. The porosities and permeabilities of these samples were determined. This study is important because this formation is considered as a good reservoir for hydrocarbon accumulation in other places in Libya.
The porosity was measured by three different methods namely by porosimeter (using core samples), thin sections and binocular microscope. The permeability are also measured by two methods, the first method was by Nitrogen method and the other is by Klinkenberg method. The instrument that used for measuring

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