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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
صناعة المخطوط في العراق
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The Arab heritage is considered one of the treasures of the noble human civilizations, as it is a deep-rooted heritage, when the dawn of Islam dawned on the Arabian Peninsula, and when its conquests spanned,

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
الملاكات التخطيطية في العراق
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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
المحددات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية للبطالة في السودان -دراسة قياسية باستخدام انحدار المركبات الرئيسة للمدة (1981-2015م)
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Considering the magnitude of its economic, social and political impact, unemployment represents a crucial challenge confronting the majority of the countries of the world. The problem of the study was the high rates of unemployment in Sudan and the inability of economic growth rates to keep pace with the steady increases in unemployment rates during the study period. This study aimed to identify the economic and social variables influencing unemployment rate in Sudan, in addition to measuring the impact of these variables over the period (1981-2015). Data were collected from databases of the World Bank and Atlas of the World's data .The study hypothesized the presence of statistically significant and direct relationship between u

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Extent of Applying Corporate Governance Requirements According to International Specification (ISO 26000:2010) in the National Insurance Company: A Research Application
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Abstract

                The research aims to identify the application of corporate governance requirements according to the international standard (ISO 26000:2010) in the National Insurance Company. Strengths and weaknesses were identified to study the current state of this requirement's application in the company under investigation. The descriptive-analytical approach was utilized through a checklist derived from ISO 26000:2010. Several personal interviews and field visits were conducted to understand the extent of application and documentation based on various statistical methods. The results revealed a level of applic

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 05 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE CULTURAL FACTORS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE COMMUNICATOR IN INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC RELATIONS: ) Reading In Light Of The Theory Of The Cultural Relativism(
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This research addressed the cultural factors that are affecting the communicator in international public relations in light of the theory of the cultural relativism. The research aimed to find out the nature of cultural differences between societies and how can for professionals in international public relations understanding the culture of other and communicate with him peacefully. The researcher used qualitative and interpretative methodology. Some of the important results of the research are: The Communities are affected by cultural factors that are composed from values, customs, traditions, prevailing and inherited ethic, languages, religious beliefs, fashion, gender, colors indi

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation Status Of Central Laboratories In Al- Kadhimya Teaching Hospital According To ISO/IEC 17025 In 2005
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This research aims to analyze and evaluate  the reality of the total quality management for the central laboratories by comparing systems of work in the laboratories of Al- Kadhimiya Didactic Hospital with the requirements of ISO 17025 to determine the degree of compatibility and the willingness to adapt to the requirements of the above specification and to show the ability of building an applicable quality management system and to identify problems and their mitigations and prevention to increase.

This study gains its importance from the importance of the labs which stems from the fact that the process of health is a set of interrelated activities, Medical examinations and tests con

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 24 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
The role of e-commerce in the insurance industry and its impacts on consumer rights (In the case of the National Insurance Company study): The role of e-commerce in the insurance industry and its impacts on consumer rights (In the case of the National Insurance Company study)
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The e-commerce is one of the best achievements of the twentieth century, since the conduct commercial transactions via the Internet may be the consumer easy selection process and purchase convenient manner different from traditional methods, and with the beginnings of the new millennium impose the emergence of e-commerce term significant challenges to the insurance industry as an important economic sectors Generally, and insurance companies in particular as a result of scientific development, which has led to a reduction in costs and innovation in the production, which led to intense competition on both levels local or global. The insurance industry is a vital part of the economy and it has a varied impact to the community and individual

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 04 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
المشكلات الاكاديمية التي تواجه طالبات كلية التربية للبنات في الجامعة العراقية من وجهة نظرهن وسبل التغلب عليها
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The present study aimed to identify the problems thatthe students of College of Education, for women in Iraqia university are suffering from and how to overcome them. thesample of the study contained of (392) student which forms (20%) of the basic sample which is  (2180) student, distributed on the six departments of the college they have been chosen randomly and the researcher has used the descriptive analytic method by applying one contains (67) items distributed on six fields,they are as follows: study skills field, academic field, curriculums field, students- teacher relationship field, examinations field, students family field,.

        The study has come with

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Difficulties Facing the Schools of Challenge and Resilience and their Relationship to Motivation towards School Work for Its Workers in Hebron Governorate
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The current study aims to examine the level of problems faced by university students in distance learning, in addition to identify the differences in these problems in terms of the availability of internet services, gender, college, GPA, interactions, academic cohort, and family economic status. The study sample consisted of (3172) students (57.3% females). The researchers developed a questionnaire with (32) items to measure distance learning problems in four areas: Psychological (9 items), academic (10 items), technological (7 items), and study environment (6 items). The responses are scored on a (5) point Likert Scale ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree). Means, standard deviations, and Multivariate Analysis of Vari

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