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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Food problem in Iraq: Challenges and Antiquities.: Food problem in Iraq: Challenges and Antiquities.
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Research Hypothesis from the fact that kicks off the effect that agricultural production in Iraq plays an important role in overcoming the food problem and achieving food security, but he became far far away from the provision of sufficient quantities of food products and then securing the Iraqi consumer food basket by the challenges faced by the agricultural sector.
To prove the hypothesis research in its structure in three axes came, the first axis eating historical significance to the subject of food over time periods as well as to clarify the concept of food security, and the second axis touched on the most important challenges facing the agricultural sector in Iraq and prevent the achievement of food requirements for members of

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of the environmental management system on the clean production strategy / case study in Middle Refineries Company
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The aim of this research is to measure and analyze the gap between the actual reality and the requirements of the environmental management system in the middle refineries company/refinery cycle according to ISO14001: 2015, as well as to measure the availability of a clean production strategy and test the relationship and impact between the availability of the requirements of the standard and a clean production strategy for the actual reality in the company.

The research problem was determined by the extent to which the requirements of the environmental management system are applied according to ISO14001: 2015 in the middle refineries company? To what extent are the required clean production strategies ava

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of the marketing channel of the service on marine insurance losses: a case study in the Iraqi insurance company
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All businesses seek to improve their levels of profits through various means, most notably their marketing channels, which ensure the delivery of their products to their customers in a safe manner in a timely manner. It considers losses to a minimum and that insurance companies place great interest in marine insurance losses because they often constitute huge amounts compared to other losses, hence the problem of research, which is centred on the type and size of the impact owned by the channel The Iraqi insurance company was chosen to be applied according to the intentional sample method because this company is closely related to the subject matter. The research has reached a set of conclusions, most notably that the choice of i

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
الملاكات التخطيطية في العراق
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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
صناعة المخطوط في العراق
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The Arab heritage is considered one of the treasures of the noble human civilizations, as it is a deep-rooted heritage, when the dawn of Islam dawned on the Arabian Peninsula, and when its conquests spanned,

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
إستراتيجية الرقابة في العراق
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تحتل الرقابة المالية والإدارية أهمية كبيرة في عمل المؤسسات وتمثل المرحلة الإشرافية فيها وتُعد من أهم عناصر العملية الإدارية، ويأتي دور الأجهزة الرقابية لضمان تقديم الخدمات للمواطنين، بأسرع وقت، وبأقل جهد وتكلفة. واعتمدت الدولة العراقية منذ تأسيسها على جهاز رقابي خارجي واحد هو ديوان مراقب الحسابات العام المؤسس بالقانون رقم (17) لعام 1927 الذي كان يمارس أعمال الرقابة والتدقيق المالي والحسابي للمصروفات والإير

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Examining the Asymmetric Impacts of Interest and Exchange Rate on Investment in Egypt for the Period 1976-2020: Applying NARDL Model
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Most of the studies conducted in the past decades focused on the effect of interest rates and exchange rates on domestic investment under the assumption that the independent variables have the same effect on the dependent variable, but there were limited studies that investigated the unequal effects of changes in interest rates and exchange rates, both positive and negative, on domestic investment.  This study used a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to assess the unequal effects of the real interest rate and real exchange rate variables on domestic investment in Egypt for the period 1976 - 2020.  The results revealed that positive and negative shocks for both exchange rates have unequal effects on

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
International Studies Concerning Teachers’ Attitudes towards the Inclusion of Students with Special Educational Needs: Review of Literature
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Over the years, the issue of inclusion of students with special educational needs (SEN) in mainstream schools is controversial worldwide. Evidence from research argues that without a positive teachers’ attitude towards the inclusion of students with SEN in mainstream schools, the successful implementation of inclusion is most likely doubtable. The aim of this paper is to understand teachers’ attitudes towards the inclusion of students with SEN in mainstream schools from different perspectives and from different contexts. The conclusion drawn in this review can be that teachers’ attitude is the most important key towards the appropriate inclusion implementation in mainstream schools. The disparity of teachers’ attitudes towards th

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Bayesian method to estimate the parameters of Exponential Growth Model with Autocorrelation problem and different values of parameter of correlation-using simulation
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We have studied Bayesian method in this paper by using the modified exponential growth model, where this model is more using to represent the growth phenomena. We focus on three of prior functions (Informative, Natural Conjugate, and the function that depends on previous experiments) to use it in the Bayesian method. Where almost of observations for the growth phenomena are depended on one another, which in turn leads to a correlation between those observations, which calls to treat such this problem, called Autocorrelation, and to verified this has been used Bayesian method.

The goal of this study is to knowledge the effect of Autocorrelation on the estimation by using Bayesian method. F

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Article International attitudes to change in the Arab countries in the positions of analytical Read (United States, European Union, Russia)
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المواقف افي الدول العربية قراءة تحليلية في مواقف لدولية من التغيير (الولايات المتحدة - الاتحاد الاوروبي - روسيا)

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