تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Mixed-effects conditional logistic regression is evidently more effective in the study of qualitative differences in longitudinal pollution data as well as their implications on heterogeneous subgroups. This study seeks that conditional logistic regression is a robust evaluation method for environmental studies, thru the analysis of environment pollution as a function of oil production and environmental factors. Consequently, it has been established theoretically that the primary objective of model selection in this research is to identify the candidate model that is optimal for the conditional design. The candidate model should achieve generalizability, goodness-of-fit, parsimony and establish equilibrium between bias and variab
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The research Compared two methods for estimating fourparametersof the compound exponential Weibull - Poisson distribution which are the maximum likelihood method and the Downhill Simplex algorithm. Depending on two data cases, the first one assumed the original data (Non-polluting), while the second one assumeddata contamination. Simulation experimentswere conducted for different sample sizes and initial values of parameters and under different levels of contamination. Downhill Simplex algorithm was found to be the best method for in the estimation of the parameters, the probability function and the reliability function of the compound distribution in cases of natural and contaminateddata.
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The research deals with the relationship between supplier evaluation (single variable) and family brand strategy (single variable) a case study in the battery factory\Al-Waziriya, and the fact that the industrial sector represents a cornerstone for building the country’s economy of and their development. The research has been selected on this basis. The problem stems from the lack of business understanding of the real role played by the assessment of the suppliers' and its strong impact on its reputation and position in the market. The research gains its importance by moving away from traditional marketing style in terms of characteristics related to the resource itself, and the service provided by the factory to c
... Show MoreThe research has designed for studying the relationship between manufacturing strategy and its flexibility under the flexible manufacturing system with their reflection on the competitive environmental performance of the firm. To interpret and tackle the problem, a hypothesis has formulated stating that “ the competitive performance of a firm is interpreted by the manufacturing strategy and flexibility which are derived from the firm and its business strategies under the flexible manufacturing system”. Related literatures with their theoretical dissertations, which enhanced the thoughtful content, have analyzed. An illustrative case study on the flexible manufacturing system at Toyota Motors Corporation working at the g
... Show Moreواقع الدراسات الاورومتوستطية في الجامعات العراقية "دراسة حالة كلية العلوم السياسية - جامعة بغداد"
The electoral mechanism is remarkably clear, a political tool for institutional construction, directing political life, forming the political scene, and forming the partisan scene. This process was through the design of electoral laws, as elections in Tunisian political history represented the indicator of its slow and accelerated transformations, so The elections in Tunisia usually coincide with important political stages, accompanied by legislative or constitutional amendments in general, Islamic or secular forces have played a fundamental role in promoting the democratic experience and the principle of the peaceful transfer of power. This led to the formation of a national consensus that would help the country not enter into political
... Show Moreالمواقف افي الدول العربية قراءة تحليلية في مواقف لدولية من التغيير (الولايات المتحدة - الاتحاد الاوروبي - روسيا)
This study aims at identifying the problems facing the students teachers in the department of Science Computer in the College of Education for Women in Baghdad University during their application in the Schools and their attitudes Towards teaching before and after the application the sample Consists of the Fourth year Students Who did teach in Baghdad (75 Students) The data have been dealt with statistically by using chi – Square, the relative percentage Weight, Person's Correlation Coefficient and the t – test.
After analyzing the results, it has been Shown that the Following are the most important problems :-
1. limitedness of the period of application.
2. Insufficiency of the hours specified for the Computer.
3. Insuff
The present study aims to identify the role of behavioral disorders (anxiety disorder, behavior disorder "behavior", confrontation and challenge disorder, aggressive behavior) in predicting bullying patterns (verbal, physical, electronic, school) in a sample of adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. For this purpose, the researcher developed scales to measure the behavioral disorders and the bullying patterns among adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. The researcher adopted the descriptive survey approach. The study sample consists of (80) adolescents with autism spectrum disorder with ages range from (15-19 years) and (45-53 years old) in association with israr association for people with special needs in the northern borders
... Show MoreHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related death. Therefore, it is critical for researchers to understand molecular biology in greater depth. In several diseases including cancer, abnormal miRNA expression has been linked to apoptosis, proliferation, differentiation, and metastasis. Many miRNAs have been studied in relation to cancer, including miR-122, miR-223, and others. Hepatitis B and C viruses are the most important global risk factors for HCC. This study is intended to test whether serum miRNAs serve as a potential biomarker for both HCC and viral infections HBV and C. The expression of miRNA in 64 serum samples was analyzed by RT-qPCR. Compared to healthy volunteers, HCC patients' sera expre
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