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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
العلاقة بين موقف الحساب الجاري وسعر الصرف (حالة الولايات المتحدة)
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خضعت العلاقة بين موقف الحساب الجاري, سواء اكان بحالة عجز ام فائض, وسعر الصرف, اكان بحالة انخفاض او ارتفاع, لجدل واسع بين اوساط الاقتصاديين بشأن هذه العلاقة واتجاهاتها.

الا ان الاعتماد المتزايد لبعض الدول على المستثمرين الاجانب لتمويل العجز في حساباتها الجارية قد يصطدم بعدم رغبة هولاء المستثمرون في الاستمرار باقتناء موجودات معينة مقوِِِِِِِِمة بعملات تلك الدول. وتنشأ الطامة الكبرى لاقتصاد

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Neurological Perfectionism in Talented Individuals with Disabilities “Case Study”
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The study aims to identify the neurological perfectionism of talented girls with disabilities and do a case study for one of these girls. The sample of the study consisted of (11) female students at the university level, 5 females with disability and (6) normal female-students. The sample also included (19) secondary school female students in Tabuk region, including 10 students with visual disability and (9) normal students. The case study was limited to one case of mentally superior girls (talented) with kinetic disability. The researcher adopted the descriptive methodology (case study), he used neurological perfectionism scale, Salah Mekhemar interview, Stanford interfacial intelligence scale fifth picture, case study form. The re

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2006
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
الصعوبات التي تواجـه طلبة أقســـــام طرائق تدريس القرآن الكريم والتربية الإســــلامية في مادة طرائق التدريس من وجهة نظرهم
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- مشكلة البحث

تشغل مادة طرائق التدريس مكانة متميزة في عملية التعليم والتعلم لما لها من دور كبير وفاعل في إيصال المادة العلمية إلى الطالب بنجاح .

وقد عزى بعض الباحثين التأخر الذي رافق طرائق تدريس التربية الإسلامية إلى ضعف إعداد المدرسين وتأهيلهم التربوي ولا سيما أن عدد غير قليل منهم من كليات غير تربوية فهم خريجو كليات العلوم الإسلامية والجامعة الإسلامية والإدارة والاقتصاد

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 08 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Silver Nanoparticles and their Role in Gene Expression of Motility Gene motB and Repression of AI-2-Controlled Gene
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Antibiotic resistance is the capability of the strains to resist or protect themselves from the effects of an antibiotic. Such a resistance towards the current antimicrobials leads to the search of novel antimicrobials. Nanotechnology has been promising in different field of science and among it is the use of nanoparticles as antibacterial agents. The gastrointestinal tract seems to be the primary reservoir of uropathogenic E.coli (UPEC) in humans. UPEC strains harbour the urinary tract and cause urinary tract infection. They cause serious ailments in terms of humans. They develop resistance and increase their virulence by forming biofilms. They also show a remarkable locomotory movement with the aid of autoinducer controlled ge

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Strategic Analysis for the Grain Grinders' establishments in Baghdad governorate and problems suffered by the industry, along with the possibility to predict its products
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Geography of industry has been considered a branch of important economic geographical branches. This importance has been regarded as a reflection on the industrial sector contribution in economies of any state since they contribute into the total national product ; it also assimilates a huge number of labor hands . The industry of grains grinding has been considered as one of the main food industries having a main role in satisfying the need of the population from the foods. The industry is continued to use the food as daily meal . Here, it should predict the population in Baghdad and for every district until the end of 2025 and knowing either these grains grinders are able to meet and satisfy the needs of populations of flours, making s

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 05 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
العملية – التعلمية في عصر الانترنت والصعوبات التي تعيق استعماله " دراسة اجريت على عينة من طالبات كلية التربية للبنات "
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The study aims to introduce at the difficulties in which delay the using of the internet In the educational process – learning , Study was conducted on a sample of students in the College of Education for Girls and the effects of variables : possession of computer , availability of the internet service , and the level of parents on these difficulties ,  Used for this purpose, a total sample size (400) students, distributed Departments . Results showed that the most important difficulties in which delay using of internet were : Lack of knowledge of internet availability , Lack of knowledge of the aim of using this service , and the students satisfaction that the disadvantages is more than the advantages of

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Specificity of Government Expenditure Decisions and their Reflection in Financial Performance / Case Study in Diyala Governorate Sewerage Directorate
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The research examines the extent to which government spending decisions can affect the level of the financial performance of the directorate. The research problem was based on the financial reality of the Directorate of Sewerage of Diyala province. Spending on the Directorate of the research area. To achieve a set of objectives: indicate the impact of government spending decisions on financial performance, the use of financial analysis to assess the performance of the Directorate. The research adopted financial analysis tools, a set of financial ratios, through which the spending decisions taken by the Directorate of the field of research will be evaluated, and during the period (2014-2018). The research also adopted statistical

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Specificity of Government Financing Decisions and their Reflection in Financial Performance / Case Study in Diyala Governorate Sewerage Directorate
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The aim of this research is to study the extent of the impact of government funding decisions on the financial performance of the directorate of Diyala province. The research problem was based on the financial reality of the directorate, and the data were collected from the financial divisions, planning and follow-up, implementation, and engineers of the resident engineer departments. Demonstrate the impact of government funding decisions on financial performance. Using scientific methods in estimating their financial needs through the annual estimated budget. The use of financial analysis to assess the performance of the Directorate, for the purpose of assessing the financial situation of the Directorate of research. The researc

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determine The Factors Affecting Product Quality Using FMEA Analysis: A Case Study in Al Zawraa State Company
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The research aims to identify the factors that affect the quality of the product by using the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) tool and to suggest measures to reduce the deviations or defects in the production process. I used the case study approach to reach its goals, and the air filter product line was chosen in the air filters factory of Al-Zawraa General Company. The research sample was due to the emergence of many defects of different impact and the continuing demand for the product. I collected data and information from the factory records for two years (2018-2019) and used a scheme Pareto Fishbone Diagram as well as an FMEA tool to analyze data and generate results.

Par

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of Internal Control Activities and their Role in Administrative Decisions
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The current research aims to verify the relationship and impact of internal control activities as an independent variable in its dimensions (efficiency, training, independence) in making administrative decisions as a responsive variable and its dimensions (identifying and diagnosing the problem, searching for alternatives, evaluating alternatives, choosing the appropriate alternative, implementing the decision, following up Decision and evaluation) in the Kirkuk Water Directorate, as well as to identify the levels of their practices, and then try to come up with a number of recommendations contribute to the strengthening of internal control activities and the process of making administrative decisions of the researched Directorat

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