تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The research focuses on the withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear agreement signed between the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and the Islamic Republic of Iran concerning its nuclear program. This withdrawal has caused disruption in the official media discourse of the concerned countries. Therefore, the main question can be posed: Are there differences in the positions of countries related to the nuclear agreement, as well as those countries affected by it, before and after the official withdrawal of the United States on May 8, 2018?
The research aims to shed light on the trends in media discourse of the countries that signed the nuclear agreement and those affected by it b
Academic achievement is a professional standard for measuring student levels in the first stages. Therefore, any indication of the level of achievement makes us in an attempt to employ students in evening schools. The researcher has developed a closed questionnaire of (36) paragraphs. A total of (164) male and (24) female students were chosen from evening schools. The result of this research revealed that the number of students was a reason for the low level of their achievement, the lack of laboratories, educational methods, and techniques of the most prominent problems confirmed by students in these schools. In addition, to support educational institutions with their necessary needs. The most important conclusion in this research is th
... Show MoreIn this paper, the fuzzy logic and the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number were presented, as well as some properties of the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number and semi- parametric logistic regression model when using the trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number. The output variable represents the dependent variable sometimes cannot be determined in only two cases (response, non-response)or (success, failure) and more than two responses, especially in medical studies; therefore so, use a semi parametric logistic regression model with the output variable (dependent variable) representing a trapezoidal fuzzy intuitionistic number.
the model was estimated on simulati
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Multipoint forming process is an engineering concept which means that the working surface of the punch and die is produced as hemispherical ends of individual active elements (called pins), where each pin can be independently, vertically displaced using a geometrically reconfigurable die. Several different products can be made without changing tools saved precious production time. Also, the manufacturing of very expensive rigid dies is reduced, and a lot of expenses are saved. But the most important aspects of using such types of equipment are the flexibility of the tooling. This paper presents an experimental investigation of the effect of three main parameters which are blank holder, rubber thickness and forming speed th
... Show Moreيهدف البحث الحالي إلى التعرف على المشكلات التي تواجه طلبة كلية التربية/ الجامعة المستنصرية أثناء فترة التطبيقات التدريسية ، كما يهدف إلى معرفة حلولهم المقترحة لها.
وقد شمل عينة عدد أفرادها (293) مطبقاً ومطبقة يتوزعون على ثمانية أقسام . وهي تمثل حوالي (50%) من المجتمع الأصلي للبحث ، وقد جرى اختيارها بالطريقة الطبقية العشوائية .
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... Show MoreBackground: Pilonidal sinus is a recurrence pathology that affects the gluteal area, cleft part of it. It affects many parts but mainly the sacral area and may present with various forms; from the asymptomatic cyst to severe infection in a form of painful abscess or sinus. The treatment of pilonidal sinus ranges from observation with good hygiene to excision of the sinus left wide incision. Recurrence may follow the excisional procedure and may need more operations. Many conservative ways had been used for the management of the sinus; laser (phototherapy) is one kind that may use. this paper aims to test the efficiency of the laser (diode 980nm) in the treatment of the sinus. material:
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This research aims to identify the actual reality of the supply chain processes applied in the Noor Al-Kafeel Food Products Company, which was chosen as a research sample by measuring the application and documentation gap. The current research relies on the case study method to reach the desired results, and the seven-scale scale was relied on to identify the reality of the supply chain operations applied in the researched company and the use of quantitative and qualitative methods in data collection and analysis, as quantitative methods such as the arithmetic mean were used weighted, percentage measurement, and g
... Show MoreThe estimation of the parameters of Two Parameters Gamma Distribution in case of missing data has been made by using two important methods: the Maximum Likelihood Method and the Shrinkage Method. The former one consists of three methods to solve the MLE non-linear equation by which the estimators of the maximum likelihood can be obtained: Newton-Raphson, Thom and Sinha methods. Thom and Sinha methods are developed by the researcher to be suitable in case of missing data. Furthermore, the Bowman, Shenton and Lam Method, which depends on the Three Parameters Gamma Distribution to get the maximum likelihood estimators, has been developed. A comparison has been made between the methods in the experimental aspect to find the best meth
... Show MoreThe purpose of the theme of redesign of jobs one of the topics the task that offers the possibility for individuals to perform several tasks in the organization of health at the same time gain experience and diverse skills and achieve compatibility between the requirements of the most appropriate function and organization of the hand ,hence, the idea of studying the redesign of jobs of the division of blood transfusion services in the department of health Baghdad Rusafa to change the conventional methods used in the performance of functions ,which are no longer able to meet the needs of patients where blood transfusion is a key ingredient in health care and equal access to safe blood is needed
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health organizations are trying to introduce services of high quality and efficiency which requires applying some standards of nursing career to improve nursing service quality in the hospital, which provides an essential data base key to diagnosis the negative and positive part in nursing services to guarantee the quality of services presented . The aim of this study is to evaluated the quality of nursing service through stating the indicators of nursing career standards by comparing the reality of the a hospital with what should standards . In addition , adapting nursing career standards with what is suitable for hos
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