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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measure the Impact of global financial crisis on some indicators of the Saudi Arabia's economy using the Mendel-Fleming model for period (1997-2015)
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         The main objective of this study is to measure the Impact of global financial crisis on some indicators of the Saudi Arabia's economy using the Mendel-Fleming model, the importance of the study applied by focusing on the theme of general equilibrium in the face of fluctuations in the global economy. Study used a descriptive approach and the methodology of econometrics to construct the model. Study used Eviews Program for data analysis. The Data was collected from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, for the period (1997-2014).Stationery of the variables was checked by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit roots tests. And also the co-integration

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
New Robust Estimation in Compound Exponential Weibull-Poisson Distribution for both contaminated and non-contaminated Data
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Abstract

The research Compared two methods for estimating fourparametersof the compound exponential Weibull - Poisson distribution which are the maximum likelihood method and the Downhill Simplex algorithm. Depending on two data cases, the first one assumed the original data (Non-polluting), while the second one assumeddata contamination. Simulation experimentswere conducted for different sample sizes and initial values of parameters and under different levels of contamination. Downhill Simplex algorithm was found to be the best method for in the estimation of the parameters, the probability function and the reliability function of the compound distribution in cases of natural and contaminateddata.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Competitiveness of an enterprise under a flexible manufacturing system. Manufacturing strategy and flexibility - Case study
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The research has designed for studying the relationship between manufacturing strategy and its flexibility under the flexible manufacturing system with their reflection on the competitive environmental performance of the firm. To interpret and tackle the problem, a hypothesis has formulated stating that “ the competitive performance of a firm is interpreted by the manufacturing strategy and flexibility which are derived from the firm and its business  strategies under the flexible manufacturing system”. Related literatures with their theoretical dissertations, which enhanced the thoughtful content, have analyzed. An illustrative case study on the flexible manufacturing system at Toyota Motors Corporation working at the g

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2006
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
واقع الدراسات الاورومتوستطية في الجامعات العراقية "دراسة حالة كلية العلوم السياسية - جامعة بغداد"
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واقع الدراسات الاورومتوستطية في الجامعات العراقية "دراسة حالة كلية العلوم السياسية - جامعة بغداد"

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Relationship between supplier evaluation and family brand strategy Case study in battery factory\ Al-Waziriya
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   The research deals with the relationship between supplier evaluation (single variable) and family brand strategy (single variable) a case study in the battery factory\Al-Waziriya, and the fact that the industrial sector represents a cornerstone for building the country’s economy of and their development. The research has been selected on this basis. The problem stems from the lack of business understanding of the real role played by the assessment of the suppliers' and its strong impact on its reputation and position in the market. The research gains its importance by moving away from traditional marketing style in terms of characteristics related to the resource itself, and the service provided by the factory to c

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 20 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE CONSTRUCTION OF NEWS TICKERS IN THE ARABIC CHANNELS: ) Al Arabiya TV - study of the case - 2007(
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While providing important news information, News tickers ( also called sliders or crawlers ) have become one of the methods used daily by satellite channels, because it’s almost a continuous news coverage and as it seems, it has become today an addition to the news world. Hence, satellite channels need to look for a mechanism to build news tickers in order to develop them even though they are still today not recognisable and in need of being classified in a radio or television art, and that is not easy. This research sheds light on the construction of the slider of a news satellite channel, which is important according to our modest convictions, as it can be the beginning of a long scientific research in a new field of study. The probl

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare to the conditional logistic regression models with fixed and mixed effects for longitudinal data
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Mixed-effects conditional logistic regression is evidently more effective in the study of qualitative differences in longitudinal pollution data as well as their implications on heterogeneous subgroups. This study seeks that conditional logistic regression is a robust evaluation method for environmental studies, thru the analysis of environment pollution as a function of oil production and environmental factors. Consequently, it has been established theoretically that the primary objective of model selection in this research is to identify the candidate model that is optimal for the conditional design. The candidate model should achieve generalizability, goodness-of-fit, parsimony and establish equilibrium between bias and variab

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The role of elections in solidifying the process of democratization: a case study of Tunisian elections in 2019
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The electoral mechanism is remarkably clear, a political tool for institutional construction, directing political life, forming the political scene, and forming the partisan scene. This process was through the design of electoral laws, as elections in Tunisian political history represented the indicator of its slow and accelerated transformations, so The elections in Tunisia usually coincide with important political stages, accompanied by legislative or constitutional amendments in general, Islamic or secular forces have played a fundamental role in promoting the democratic experience and the principle of the peaceful transfer of power. This led to the formation of a national consensus that would help the country not enter into political

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Difficulties Facing the Schools of Challenge and Resilience and their Relationship to Motivation towards School Work for Its Workers in Hebron Governorate
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The current study aims to examine the level of problems faced by university students in distance learning, in addition to identify the differences in these problems in terms of the availability of internet services, gender, college, GPA, interactions, academic cohort, and family economic status. The study sample consisted of (3172) students (57.3% females). The researchers developed a questionnaire with (32) items to measure distance learning problems in four areas: Psychological (9 items), academic (10 items), technological (7 items), and study environment (6 items). The responses are scored on a (5) point Likert Scale ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree). Means, standard deviations, and Multivariate Analysis of Vari

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 08 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Obstacles facing the application of electronic banking An exploratory: study of the opinions of a sample of bank employees operating in the city of Nasiriyah
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Electronic banking plays a prominent role in providing the best banking services and upgrading the banking sector for the better, so this study aimed to shed light on the most prominent obstacles that prevent the application of electronic banking in banks operating in the city of Nasiriyah, and in order to achieve this goal the researcher used the descriptive analytical approach And through a questionnaire form that was distributed to a group of employees, numbering (60) employees in the upper, middle and operational departments in a number of branches of private banks operating in the city of Nasiriyah, namely (the Iraqi Trade Bank, the Gulf Commercial Bank, the Bank of Baghdad, the Union Bank of Iraq), which represented The stu

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