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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
المحددات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية للبطالة في السودان -دراسة قياسية باستخدام انحدار المركبات الرئيسة للمدة (1981-2015م)
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Considering the magnitude of its economic, social and political impact, unemployment represents a crucial challenge confronting the majority of the countries of the world. The problem of the study was the high rates of unemployment in Sudan and the inability of economic growth rates to keep pace with the steady increases in unemployment rates during the study period. This study aimed to identify the economic and social variables influencing unemployment rate in Sudan, in addition to measuring the impact of these variables over the period (1981-2015). Data were collected from databases of the World Bank and Atlas of the World's data .The study hypothesized the presence of statistically significant and direct relationship between u

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
المشكلات التي تواجه الطالبات المطبقات في قسم علوم الحاسبات في كلية التربية للبنات في جامعة بغداد واتجاهاتهن نحو مهنة التدريس
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This study aims at identifying the problems facing the students teachers in the department of Science Computer in the College of Education for Women in Baghdad University during their application in the Schools and their attitudes Towards teaching before and after the application the sample Consists of the Fourth year Students Who did teach in Baghdad (75 Students) The data have been dealt with statistically by using chi – Square, the relative percentage Weight, Person's Correlation Coefficient and the t – test.
After analyzing the results, it has been Shown that the Following are the most important problems :-
1. limitedness of the period of application.
2. Insufficiency of the hours specified for the Computer.
3. Insuff

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Disclosure of related parties in accordance with the requirements of International Accounting Standards: إنموذج قاعدة محاسبية مقترحه
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        Positions related parties have become a regular feature and the general business and trade these days as it can enter the facilities in transactions with related parties on terms no enters them is with the parties relationship in normal circumstances, and that he found the funniest people relationship have an effect on the outcome of activity and financial position of the entity and its decisions financial and operational. In order to ensure "transparency" in the financial reports, most accounting around the world standards determines that disclosure of transactions with related parties, it is important to have a local accounting rules these relations as well as the unnecessary disclosure of the

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Publication Date
Wed May 14 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
International Public Relations (An Analytical Study of the Speeches of US President Barack Obama Addressed to the Arab Countries in Crisis)
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In the midst of political, cultural and economic fast developments accelerated, the world witnessed, with the accompanied big communication revolutions, many shapes of powers. Those developments were followed by changes in relations of international level.

The most prominent among those developments was the international public relations which became equal to official international relations. Moreover, the international public relations became a complementary element dur to the growth of public opinion and its affection on political regime. Such growth of public opinion pushed the politicians to address it; and try to gain its support.

The US was the first realized the importance of international public relations. Th

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Contribution of Behavioral Disorders to Predicting Bullying Patterns in a Sample of Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorder: College of Education and Arts - Northern Border University - Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The present study aims to identify the role of behavioral disorders (anxiety disorder, behavior disorder "behavior", confrontation and challenge disorder, aggressive behavior) in predicting bullying patterns (verbal, physical, electronic, school) in a sample of adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. For this purpose, the researcher developed scales to measure the behavioral disorders and the bullying patterns among adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. The researcher adopted the descriptive survey approach. The study sample consists of (80) adolescents with autism spectrum disorder with ages range from (15-19 years) and (45-53 years old) in association with israr association for people with special needs in the northern borders

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 30 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction and early Diagnosis of Hepatitis B and C viral infection using miR-122 and miR-223 in a sample of Iraqi patients.
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Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related death. Therefore, it is critical for researchers to understand molecular biology in greater depth.  In several diseases including cancer, abnormal miRNA expression has been linked to apoptosis, proliferation, differentiation, and metastasis. Many miRNAs have been studied in relation to cancer, including miR-122, miR-223, and others. Hepatitis B and C viruses are the most important global risk factors for HCC. This study is intended to test whether serum miRNAs serve as a potential biomarker for both HCC and viral infections HBV and C. The expression of miRNA in 64 serum samples was analyzed by RT-qPCR. Compared to healthy volunteers, HCC patients' sera expre

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2006
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
واقع الدراسات الاورومتوستطية في الجامعات العراقية "دراسة حالة كلية العلوم السياسية - جامعة بغداد"
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واقع الدراسات الاورومتوستطية في الجامعات العراقية "دراسة حالة كلية العلوم السياسية - جامعة بغداد"

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
New Robust Estimation in Compound Exponential Weibull-Poisson Distribution for both contaminated and non-contaminated Data
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Abstract

The research Compared two methods for estimating fourparametersof the compound exponential Weibull - Poisson distribution which are the maximum likelihood method and the Downhill Simplex algorithm. Depending on two data cases, the first one assumed the original data (Non-polluting), while the second one assumeddata contamination. Simulation experimentswere conducted for different sample sizes and initial values of parameters and under different levels of contamination. Downhill Simplex algorithm was found to be the best method for in the estimation of the parameters, the probability function and the reliability function of the compound distribution in cases of natural and contaminateddata.

 

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Publication Date
Wed May 14 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE CONSTRUCTION OF NEWS TICKERS IN THE ARABIC CHANNELS: ) Al Arabiya TV - study of the case - 2007(
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While providing important news information, News tickers ( also called sliders or crawlers ) have become one of the methods used daily by satellite channels, because it’s almost a continuous news coverage and as it seems, it has become today an addition to the news world. Hence, satellite channels need to look for a mechanism to build news tickers in order to develop them even though they are still today not recognisable and in need of being classified in a radio or television art, and that is not easy. This research sheds light on the construction of the slider of a news satellite channel, which is important according to our modest convictions, as it can be the beginning of a long scientific research in a new field of study. The probl

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Competitiveness of an enterprise under a flexible manufacturing system. Manufacturing strategy and flexibility - Case study
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The research has designed for studying the relationship between manufacturing strategy and its flexibility under the flexible manufacturing system with their reflection on the competitive environmental performance of the firm. To interpret and tackle the problem, a hypothesis has formulated stating that “ the competitive performance of a firm is interpreted by the manufacturing strategy and flexibility which are derived from the firm and its business  strategies under the flexible manufacturing system”. Related literatures with their theoretical dissertations, which enhanced the thoughtful content, have analyzed. An illustrative case study on the flexible manufacturing system at Toyota Motors Corporation working at the g

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