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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Examine of Organizational Excellence by Corporation Performance Assessment Method; Case Study in Tikrit University
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The research started from the basic objective of tracking the reality of organizational excellence in educational organizations on the basis of practical application. The research in its methodology was based on the examination of organizational excellence in the way of evaluating institutional performance. Tikrit University was selected as a case study to study the reality of application to the dimensions of organizational excellence in it, The results of the analysis for ten periods during the year and month. For the accuracy of the test and its averages, it was preferable to use the T test to determine the significance of the results compared to the basic criteria.

The research found that there is an o

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Achievement of Product Quality by Using Organizational Agility Case Study In Numan Public Company
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Helps to use the mechanics of organizational agility in improving product quality by reducing waste or reduce it by removing activities that do not add value, which is the main reason for inefficiency and low productivity and increase costs, so the difficulty of changing administrative decisions to cope with internal and external changes to keep up with market trends renewable are the basic issue that research seeks to be addressed through the adoption of mechanisms of organizational agility, which will be reflected in bottom line in a positive way in improving the quality of products, and thus lies Applied important to look at the light of the results achieved and in which they can know the nature of the relationship between the

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Qualification Of Human Resources To Apply Electronic Management A case study In The Ministry Of Science And Technology
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     This research aims to shed light on the reality of the process of rehabilitation of human resources for the implementation of electronic management practice in the ministry, and availability requirements of the application of electronic management and diagnosis of the most important stages and steps that can be followed in the process of transition towards electronic management to keep abreast of developments in the field of information technology, has been the application of this research in the Ministry of science and technology on a group of heads of departments and directors of the people in the departments of the Ministry through the use of case study method, which includes cohabitation field intervi

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of strategic Supremacy on strategic success A case study in Thi Qar Governorate
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Purpose To test the effect of strategic Supremacy on strategic success A case study in Thi Qar Governorate, methodology/approach – this is a mandatory entry.

a case study was used and applied to the Department managers of Government of the province of Thi Qar, Research limitations/implications – It is clear that the strategic Supremacy variable is not being used effectively to achieve strategic success.

Practical implications – use strategic supremacy positively to Support for strategic success. implementing and monitoring ignorance of them in how to use thi

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 27 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The dynamics of the oil industry in shaping land uses: a case study of the Zubair oil field
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The emergence of oil fields and subsequent changes in adjacent land use are known to affect settlements and communities. Everywhere the industry emerges, there is little understanding about the impact of oil fields on land use in the surrounding areas. The oil industry in Iraq is one of the most important industries and is almost the main industry in the Iraqi economic sector, and it is very clear that this industry is spread over large areas, and at the same time adjoins with population communities linked to it developmentally.

The rapid development and expansion of oil extraction activities in various regions has led to many challenges related to land-use planning and management. Here, the problem of research  arises on th

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of a Proposed Study Unit Based on the Funds of Knowledge Theory in Developing the Attitudes Towards Cultural Identity and the Proposed Study Unit among Students of Basic Education in the Sultanate of Oman
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The present study aims to explore the effectiveness of a proposed study unit based on the funds of knowledge theory in developing the attitudes towards cultural identity and the proposed study unit. In order to achieve the goal of the study, the two researchers followed the quasi-experimental approach, where the study sample consisted of (28) female students of the fifth-grade at Al-Jeelah Basic Education School, Al-Dakhiliyah Governorate in the Sultanate of Oman. The data were collected by two scales: the first is a scale of attitudes towards cultural identity consisting of (26) items. The second was a scale of attitudes towards the proposed study unit, which consisted of (24) items. The results of the study revealed that the effect of

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 19 2015
Journal Name
Al-academy
Transformations in The Process of Mass Communication Using the International Network of Information (Internet): انتصار رسمي موسى
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Summarized the idea of research is marked by "changes in the process of mass communication by using the international network of information" by specifying what data networking and mass communication is the transformation processes in the mass communication network where research aims to:1. Diagnostic data and transformations in the process of mass communication network.2. Provide a contact form commensurate with the characteristic mass of the International Network of electronic information, and research found to provide a communicative model called the (human contact network). In short (HCN) Humanity Communication Net also reached conclusions concerning the search process and communicative transformations and changes that have taken pla

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Aggregation of Accounting information between differentiated accounting systems ( Case Study )
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The purpose of the research is to present a proposed accounting system model for converting and aggregating accounting information within the framework of the differentiated accounting systems, and the research methodology consists of: The research problem is the existence of differentiated and dispersed accounting systems that operate within governmental economic units and at the same time seek to achieve a unified vision and goals for the organization, and the central research hypothesis is the possibility of conducting the process of conversion accounting information from the government accounting system to the unified accounting system, and then aggregate those systems. The research was conducted at the College of Administrat

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of the Strategic Performance of the State Board of Antiquities and Heritage/Case Study
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This research aims to the possibility of evaluating the strategic performance of the State Board for Antiquities and Heritage (SBAH) using a balanced scorecard of four criteria (Financial, Customers, Internal Processes, and Learning and Growth). The main challenge was that the State Board use traditional evaluation in measuring employee performance, activities, and projects. Case study and field interviews methodology has been adopted in this research with a sample consisting of the Chairman of the State Board, 6 General Managers, and 7 Department Managers who are involved in evaluating the strategic performance and deciding the suitable answers on the checklists to analyze it ac

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Community Perception on Smart Engagement: Case of Kubang Pasu Local Government
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Implementing smart community engagement should consider careful planning and collaboration with numerous stakeholders, including the community. The technology and program must be designed to frame its purpose and should link back to specific goals of implementing smart community engagement. Digital services do not guarantee a smart engagement between the community and the local government. This is the case for the Kubang Pasu local government where several online services have been provided in their attempt to implement the smart community concept. However, understanding on the preferences of features and requirements of existing web-based systems and the impact of these systems is lacking. Therefore, a perception study needs to be condu

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