The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and the use of tests to confirm the accuracy of the grey model. After obtaining the results, the best method to estimate the parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the method of the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO) It has been used to treatment the missing values in the data and in the prediction where it has been shown to have the best results
The exploitation of all available resources and benefiting from them is one of the most important problems facing the decision makers at the present time. In order to exploit these resources, it is necessary to organize the conflicting objectives, which is the main work in the project management, which enables the development of a plan that decision makers can use to shorten the total completion time and reduce the total cost of the project. Through the use of modern scientific techniques, and therefore the researcher using the critical path method using the technology of programming goals to find more efficient ways to make appropriate decisions where the researcher worked to solve the problems in the construction of the Departm
... Show MoreThe objective of the research is to find the best method to estimate rice crop through out evaluating the applied methods of stratified random sampling .By using different sorts of sampling estimators, a comparison was held among the variances of the mean for simple random sampling, stratified random sampling(var()) and separate regression estimator. The results indicate that the separate regression estimator give best estimations. The approximate cum.f4/5 method was used to determine the optimum stratum boundaries, new strata was put and then var () was calculated .In comparison with strata used nowadays in central statistical organization, the new strata led to obvious decrease in the variance. The stratified mean wa
... Show MoreThis paper deals with constructing a model of fuzzy linear programming with application on fuels product of Dura- refinery , which consist of seven products that have direct effect ondaily consumption . After Building the model which consist of objective function represents the selling prices ofthe products and fuzzy productions constraints and fuzzy demand constraints addition to production requirements constraints , we used program of ( WIN QSB ) to find the optimal solution
The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.
In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete
... Show Moreلكل فعالية أو نشاط رياضي قدرات بدنية وحركيه وعقلية تختلف عن الأنشطة الأخرى تتفق مع طبيعة الأداء والقوانين الخاصة باللعبة، ولعبة الكرة الطائرة واحدة من الفعاليات التي تمتاز في جوانبها البدنية أو المهارية أو الخططية، وكما هو حال غالبية الالعاب الجماعية فان هناك تخصصات في هذه اللعبة تميز كل اللاعب وهي الأساس التي يبنى عليها الفريق والتي يعتمدها في الوصول إلى المستويات الرياضية العالية اذ ان التدريب التخص
... Show Moreوهو بحث تجريبي أجري على عينة من اللاعبين فئة الناشئين لكرة اليد وبواقع (20) لاعب إذ تم إعداد برنامج متضمن للتمرينات الخاصة بالهجوم الفردي بهدف تطوير بعض القدرات البدنية واللياقة القلبية للاعبين . وتكمن أهمية البحث في استخدام تمرينات الهجوم الفردي، فمن أجل الارتقاء بالمستوى البدني والوظيفي للاعبين من خلال رفع مستوى الأداء البدني لبعض المهارات في لعبة كرة اليد فضلاً عن رفع مستوى اللياقة القلبية وم
... Show MoreBasket ball game is one of the collective game that practiced widely with continuous developing .Through it has four chase .it required from it’s the player to have number of physical capable. One of these is endurance of strength in order to perform defense and attack duties. The problem is declining the level of this capable that hands inverting to defence and attack performance. The aim of research is to know the effect of using various exercises in developing endurance of strength and effect in developing two skills. dragging of defense and movement of defender player. The two researchers proposed that there are differences that have statistic function between post-test and pre-test for two experimental and control groups. The experim
... Show Moreتشخيص عوامل النجاح الحرجة لتفعيل استخدام الحاسوب الشخصي
استخدام الضمائر انت وانتم في الآدب الروسي الكلاسيكي
Transportation problems are considered as a type of operation research problems. In fact, they deal with scheduling transportation of goods from their source to delivery sites in the minimum cost.
Such problems can be solved by the available traditional methods, which include; North-West corner, Least cost and Vogel’s method. As well as if this transportation problem is considered as a linear program it can also be solved by using Simplex method
The goal of the present study is to compare different research methods to provide the optimal and minimum cost.
This study was applied to resolve a transportation problem related to land Transportation Company, w
... Show More