The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a heavy fuel (HFO) and diesel fuel (D.O) and the use of tests to confirm the accuracy of the grey model. After obtaining the results, the best method to estimate the parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the method of the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO) It has been used to treatment the missing values in the data and in the prediction where it has been shown to have the best results
المقدمة
تمثل الأسعار تعبيرا" نقدياً لقيمة السلع والخدمات المقدمة للزبون، وتعد عملية التسعير من العمليات المهمة وذات الأثر البالغ على نجاح واستمرار منظمات الأعمال، نظراً لما لها من تأثير على المقدرة الربحية وإعادة توزيع الدخل القومي المخصص للاستهلاك، إذ أنه بتحديد الأسعار يستطيع الفرد أن يوزع دخله بين ما يعده ضرورياً من السلع وما يعد كمالياً.
وعموماً فإن لعملية التسعير م
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In This Paper, some semi- parametric spatial models were estimated, these models are, the semi – parametric spatial error model (SPSEM), which suffer from the problem of spatial errors dependence, and the semi – parametric spatial auto regressive model (SPSAR). Where the method of maximum likelihood was used in estimating the parameter of spatial error ( λ ) in the model (SPSEM), estimated the parameter of spatial dependence ( ρ ) in the model ( SPSAR ), and using the non-parametric method in estimating the smoothing function m(x) for these two models, these non-parametric methods are; the local linear estimator (LLE) which require finding the smoo
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استخدام العينات في بحوث وسائل الاتصال الجماهيري
The exploitation of all available resources and benefiting from them is one of the most important problems facing the decision makers at the present time. In order to exploit these resources, it is necessary to organize the conflicting objectives, which is the main work in the project management, which enables the development of a plan that decision makers can use to shorten the total completion time and reduce the total cost of the project. Through the use of modern scientific techniques, and therefore the researcher using the critical path method using the technology of programming goals to find more efficient ways to make appropriate decisions where the researcher worked to solve the problems in the construction of the Departm
... Show MoreThese search summaries in building a mathematical model to the issue of Integer linear Fractional programming and finding the best solution of Integer linear Fractional programming (I.L.F.P) that maximize the productivity of the company,s revenue by using the largest possible number of production units and maximizing denominator objective which represents,s proportion of profits to the costs, thus maximizing total profit of the company at the lowest cost through using Dinkelbach algorithm and the complementary method on the Light industries company data for 2013 and comparing results with Goal programming methods results.
It is clear that the final results of resolution and Dinkelbac
... Show MoreIs the subject of the financial structure of the most important topics for which she received the interests of scientific research in the field of financial management , as it emerged several theories about choosing a financial structure appropriate for the facility and behavior change funding them , and in spite of that there is no agreement on a specific theory answer various questions in this regard , and a special issue of the financial structure optimization.
The objective of the research was to identify the most important theories of the structure of modern financial theory has been to focus on the capture of financial firms in two different stages of their life cycle , so-called growth and ma
... Show MoreThe objective of the research is to find the best method to estimate rice crop through out evaluating the applied methods of stratified random sampling .By using different sorts of sampling estimators, a comparison was held among the variances of the mean for simple random sampling, stratified random sampling(var()) and separate regression estimator. The results indicate that the separate regression estimator give best estimations. The approximate cum.f4/5 method was used to determine the optimum stratum boundaries, new strata was put and then var () was calculated .In comparison with strata used nowadays in central statistical organization, the new strata led to obvious decrease in the variance. The stratified mean wa
... Show MoreThe researchers have a special interest in studying Markov chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying Maximum likelihood estimation and Ordinary least squares methods resulting
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In this research we built a mathematical model of the transportation problem for data of General Company for Grain Under the environment of variable demand ,and situations of incapableness to determining the supply required quantities as a result of economic and commercial reasons, also restrict flow of grain amounts was specified to a known level by the decision makers to ensure that the stock of reserves for emergency situations that face the company from decrease, or non-arrival of the amount of grain to silos , also it took the capabilities of the tanker into consideration and the grain have been restricted to avoid shortages and lack of processing capability, Function has been adopted
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