يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
Abstract
The study aims to identify the extent to which the applied colleges at the University of Technology and Applied Sciences meet the comprehensive quality standards in light of the national education strategy for the 2040 Vision in the Sultanate of Oman. To do this, the researchers used the descriptive approach. They used a questionnaire as a tool for data collection that was applied to (237) administrators, academics, and support functions. The study found that the extent to which the applied colleges at the University of Technology and Applied Sciences meet the comprehensive quality standards in the light of the National Education Strategy 2040 in the Sultanate of Oman recorded a high range. The study als
... Show Moreيناقش البحث المقومات المادية والمجتمعية والموضوعية للدور الاقليمي العراقي بعد العام 2010 والفرص المتاحة والقيود التي تحد منه والافاق المستقبلية لهذا الدور في ظل بيئة اقليمية تسودها منظومات تحالف متناقضة في الاهداف والاستراتيجيات
The study aimed to identify the effect of Total Quality Management on enhancing competitiveness through the opinions of employees of the front- rows of customer service in local Palestinian banks, the researcher adopted an analytical descriptive method through developing a special questionnaire to accomplish the study’s objectives and answer its questions. The study involved all the Palestinian local banks, with their scattered branches in West Bank. The study sample consisted of 3470 executive employees for banking services out of 4753 employees, in the rate of 73%, and the study sample reached (485) employees who were randomly selected working in the front -rows to provide services in the local Palestinian banks during the ye
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The research aims to determine the role of the efficiency of Human Resources Information System in the effectiveness of Employees Performance Appraisal System in the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research / Center for the ministry, it was touching the researchers need the ministry to devise methods that employ outputs Human Resources Information System in the organization surveyed for the development of methods and levels of process evaluate the performance of its employees, in order to identify the extent of the role played by human resources information system in the process of assessing the performance of employees, we raised the question of the President as follows:
... Show MoreOptical burst switching (OBS) network is a new generation optical communication technology. In an OBS network, an edge node first sends a control packet, called burst header packet (BHP) which reserves the necessary resources for the upcoming data burst (DB). Once the reservation is complete, the DB starts travelling to its destination through the reserved path. A notable attack on OBS network is BHP flooding attack where an edge node sends BHPs to reserve resources, but never actually sends the associated DB. As a result the reserved resources are wasted and when this happen in sufficiently large scale, a denial of service (DoS) may take place. In this study, we propose a semi-supervised machine learning approach using k-means algorithm
... Show MoreCardiovascular disease is one of the most common comorbidities associated with enlarged extremities, occurring in 60 % of patients with acromegaly. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship of growth hormone and insulin such as growth factor-1 with obesity, dyslipidemia, hyperglycemia, and pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-2, IL-6, IL-10), as risk factors for cardiovascular disorder in acromegaly patients. Eighty subjects were included and categorized into two groups: 40 acromegaly patients and 40 of the control group. The results indicated weight excess, hyperglycemia, hypertension, lipid disorder, and elevated levels of interleukins (2, 6, and 10). The correlation of both GH and IGF-1 with each of weight, BMI, systolic blood p
... Show MoreThe research aims to demonstrate the impact of tax techniques on the quality of services provided to income taxpayers by studying the correlational and influencing relationships between the exploited variable (tax techniques) and the dependent variable (the quality of services provided to income taxpayers), and in line with the research objectives, the main hypothesis of the research was formulated (there is a relationship Significance between tax techniques and the quality of services provided to income taxpayers) a number of sub-hypotheses emerged from this hypothesis that were stated in the research methodology, and a number of conclusions were reached, the most important of which were (through the use of the correlation coeff
... Show MoreThe research aims to recognize the impact of the training program based on integrating future thinking skills and classroom interaction patterns for mathematics teachers and providing their students with creative solution skills. To achieve the goal of the research, the following hypothesis was formulated: There is no statistically significant difference at the level (0.05) between the mean scores of students of mathematics teachers whose teachers trained according to the proposed training program (the experimental group) and whose teachers were not trained according to the proposed training program (the control group) in Pre-post creative solution skills test. Research sample is consisted of (31) teachers and schools were distribut
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