يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
The aim of this study is to estimate the parameters and reliability function for kumaraswamy distribution of this two positive parameter (a,b > 0), which is a continuous probability that has many characterstics with the beta distribution with extra advantages.
The shape of the function for this distribution and the most important characterstics are explained and estimated the two parameter (a,b) and the reliability function for this distribution by using the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and Bayes methods. simulation experiments are conducts to explain the behaviour of the estimation methods for different sizes depending on the mean squared error criterion the results show that the Bayes is bet
... Show MoreIn this paper, we present a comparison of double informative priors which are assumed for the parameter of inverted exponential distribution.To estimate the parameter of inverted exponential distribution by using Bayes estimation ,will be used two different kind of information in the Bayes estimation; two different priors have been selected for the parameter of inverted exponential distribution. Also assumed Chi-squared - Gamma distribution, Chi-squared - Erlang distribution, and- Gamma- Erlang distribution as double priors. The results are the derivations of these estimators under the squared error loss function with three different double priors.
Additionally Maximum likelihood estimation method
... Show MoreThe primary toxin class discovered in freshwater pufferfish is a category of neurotoxins called PSTs (Paralytic shellfish toxins) and pufferfish toxin has been observed to have biological, biochemical, and cytotoxic effects on cancer cell lines. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the cytotoxic activity, toxins present in the ovary of T. leiurus, and interaction between ligand (toxin compound) and receptors test. This study used the MTT method in the T47D cell lines, liquid chromatograph-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), and analysis of the molecular interaction using molecular docking. The ovary of T. leiurus had cytotoxicity on the T47D cell, having an IC50 value of 229.535 μg/ml, and generated a chroma
... Show MoreThis competition between competing forces, organized into axes with conflicting objectives, is reflected in all regional affairs and the goals and interests of countries within them, including Iraq. Among the most important aspects impacted by the repercussions of international and regional competition in the region is Iraqi national security, based on its vital importance in preserving the sovereignty and entity of the Iraqi state, protecting the interests and cohesion of the state and people, ensuring and defending their present and future, and interacting with various regional and international activities. The Kurdistan Region, as an important part of Iraq with its own unique characteristics, may be one of the most important regi
... Show MoreSummary: This study aims to examine the names of four-legged animals found in Turkish translations of the Qur’an written between the 11th and 15th centuries from linguistic, etymological, and semantic perspectives. These translations, belonging to the Old Anatolian Turkish period, serve not only as religious texts but also as valuable documents reflecting the social structure, cultural values, and linguistic features of the time. Within the scope of this research, six major tafsir (exegesis) texts were systematically analyzed, and the data obtained were evaluated within historical and cultural contexts. The theoretical framework of the study is based on Lakoff and Johnson’s Conceptual Metaphor Theory and Wierzbicka’s approach to lingu
... Show MoreHypoxic training, which in turn is one of the methods adopted in sports training methods, especially in activities that depend on the aerobic system in its performance, which includes training with a lack of oxygen by reducing its molecular pressure, since this method targets functional organs and works temporary responses during training and permanent responses After training as an adaptation to these devices as a result of training in this way, the study aimed to identify the effect of hypoxic exercises using the training mask and the extent of the change in some biochemical indicators, in addition to that to identify the effect of these exercises on the indicator of energy expenditure and )VMA) and the achievement of the effectiveness of
... Show MoreThis research aims to examine the effectiveness of a teaching strategy based on the cognitive model of Daniel in the development of achievement and the motivation of learning the school mathematics among the third intermediate grade students in the light of their study of "Systems of Linear Equations”. The research was conducted in the first semester (1439/1440AH), at Saeed Ibn Almosaieb Intermediate School, in Arar, Saudi Arabia. A quasi-experimental design has been used. In addition, a (pre & post) achievement test (20 Questions) and a (pre & post) scale of learning motivation to the school mathematics (25 Items) have been applied on two groups: a control group (31Students), and an experimental group (29 Students). The resear
... Show MoreThe present study aims to investigate the long-term histopathological, and physiological effects of different concentrations of a commercially available energy drink (Tiger) on liver and kidney of young mice. Sixteen Balb/c male mice,6 -week old, were divided into 4 groups (n=4). Two groups consumed the energy drink at a concentration of 28µl energy drink/ml water. One group were killed after 10 days (T1), another group were killed after 20 days (T2). Other group of mice consumed the energy drink at a final concentration of 14µl/ml for 20 days (T3). The last group was provided only with water and served as control. Mice of all groups drank around 3 ml per day. The histopathological study on liver of treated groups showed many changes s
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to evaluate the response of the researched leaders towards practicing the concept of the lens, which is its dimensions with (stakeholders, resource mobilization, knowledge development, culture management) and the nature of its relationship to tax pioneer performance represented in its dimensions (strategic direction, leadership indicators, growth, renewal and modernization, efficiency, Effectiveness) The questionnaire was approved as a main tool in collecting data and information from the sample members in the General Authority of Taxes, which number (91) Who are on (M. General Manager, Division Director, Deputy Director, Senior Division Director, Deputy Director, Second Division, Division Officer, M. D
... Show MoreThe educational service industry is one of the most negatively affected industries by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Government agencies have taken many measures to slow its spread, and then restrict movement and gatherings and stop recreational activities. Furthermore, the repercussions of the curfew had a significant impact due to the interruption in actual attendance for students and employees, and the severity of the Covid-19 crisis and its (economic, social, security, humanitarian and behavioral) effects on all societies and work sectors is no secret to anyone. Iraq, like other countries, was also affected by the negative impact of Covid-19 pandemic in all fields of institutional work, especially public fields, and specifically t
... Show More