يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غير تغيير سياساتها اذ تعتبر من اهم المشاكل التي تواجه الصندوق لارتفاع اعداد الخارجين من الخدمة وارتفاع اعداد المتقاعدين مما يتسبب في ارتفاع حجم انفاق صندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي ولاعتماد الصندوق على ايرادات الاشتراكات التي يعتمد عليها بشكل شبه تام في تمويل الصندوق اذ استخدمت خصائص السلاسل الزمنية واختبار التكامل المشترك وانموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ Vector Error Correction Model ومن ثم المقارنة من خلال المعايير,Sum Square Error Root Mean Square Error لإيجاد افضل انموذج من نماذج التمهيد الاسي للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية، اذ تم التوصل الى ان السلاسل الزمنية (الانفاق والايراد) ساكنة بعد اخذ الفرق الاول وفق Augmented Dickey Fuller وتوصل البحث الى ان فترة الابطاء المثلى هي الفترة الثالثة بالاعتماد على معيار Akaike Information Criterion واشار اختبار Johansen – Juselius الى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات وان هناك علاقة متجه من الايراد الى الانفاق وفق Vector Error Correction Model لان معلمة تصحيح حد الخطأ سالبة ومعنوية وان انموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ بين نفقات وايرادات الصندوق خالي من مشكلة الارتباط المتسلسل وخالي من مشكلة عدم تجانس التباين وان افضل انموذج للتنبؤ للمتغيرات البحث هو التمهيد الاسي لمعلمتي هولت لأنه اعطى نتائج دقيقة وقريبة من القيم الحقيقية.
In this study, the photodegradation of Congo red dye (CR) in aqueous solution was investigated using Au-Pd/TiO2 as photocatalyst. The concentration of dye, dosage of photocatalyst, amount of H2O2, pH of the medium and temperature were examined to find the optimum values of these parameters. It has been found that 28 ppm was the best dye concentration. The optimum amount of photocatalyst was 0.09 g/75 mL of dye solution when the degradation percent was ~ 96 % after irradiation time of 12 hours, while the best amount of hydrogen peroxide was 7μl/75 mL of dye solution at degradation percent ~97 % after irradiation time of 10 hours, whereas pH 5 was the best value to carry out the reaction at the highest deg
... Show MoreThis study is dedicated to one of the most difficult topics in Russian - this is the science of idioms. A feature of the Russian speech application in recent decades has been the effective change in the lexical composition of the Russian language. This article illustrates the semantic, grammatical and stylistic structural characteristics of the linguistic units that appeared in Russian at the end of the 20th century - the beginning of the twenty-first century. This work defines these terms : terminology, linguistic unity, and terms that are used as synonyms. In this research , we will adhere to the conciliatory view of the problem and include not only the terminology in the language units, but also the terminological compositions, saying
... Show MoreNeuroendocrine differentiation has been mentioned in many cancers of non-neuroendocrinal organs, involving the gastrointestinal tract. In contrast, the correlation of focally diffused neuroendocrine differentiation in colorectal adenocarcinoma with neuroendocrine cell hyperplasia has not been somewhat reported. The objective of this research is to study the relationship between neuroendocrine cell hyperplasia and neuroendocrine differentiation in colorectal adenocarcinoma and to find the correlation of neuroendocrine differentiation and VEGF expression with clinicopathological parameters of colorectal adenocarcinoma. Methods employed in the current study were including eighty-one patients with colorectal cancer. Formalin fixed paraffin e
... Show MoreChitinase-3-like 1 protein (YKL-40) is a glycoprotein primarily produced in the arthritic joint and plays a crucial role in inflammatory processes. The aim of the study is to establish the role of YKL-40 as a biomarker for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) compared to proinflammatory biomarkers and disease activity. The study included 58 patients and 18 control. Diseases activity score (DAS-28) and clinical disease activity index (CDAI) were measured. Serum level of YKL-40, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-1B (IL-1β), erythrocyte sedimentation (ESR), rheumatoid factor (RF), C-reactive protein (CRP), and anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) were assessed. The results showed that the median serum YKL-40 level which was 5.42
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify the reality of administrative motivation for the deans of the faculties of physical education and sports sciences at the universities of Baghdad and Al-Mustansiriya from the point of download of the faculty members. The number of the exploratory sample was (7) faculty members, they were taken in a random way, while the rest of the sample number was (150) faculty members who considered the application sample for the scale, and the two researchers also adopted a questionnaire for the scale and it is applied to the Iraqi environment. phrase, which are phrases that are interrelated with the administrative leadership motivation in the faculties of physical education and sports sciences. The researchers did not make
... Show MoreThe author addresses the issue of the linguoculturological component in the process of teaching Russian to Arabic students, focuses on the peculiarities of the national character of students. The author also refers to the long-standing ties of Russian and Arab cultures, thus emphasizing the relevance of this aspect for the current state and situation of the Russian language in Arab countries.
Автор статьи обращается к вопросу лингвокультурологической составляющей в процессе преподавания русского языка арабским студентам, останавливается на особенностях национального хара
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to estimate the parameters and reliability function for kumaraswamy distribution of this two positive parameter (a,b > 0), which is a continuous probability that has many characterstics with the beta distribution with extra advantages.
The shape of the function for this distribution and the most important characterstics are explained and estimated the two parameter (a,b) and the reliability function for this distribution by using the maximum likelihood method (MLE) and Bayes methods. simulation experiments are conducts to explain the behaviour of the estimation methods for different sizes depending on the mean squared error criterion the results show that the Bayes is bet
... Show MoreIn this paper, we present a comparison of double informative priors which are assumed for the parameter of inverted exponential distribution.To estimate the parameter of inverted exponential distribution by using Bayes estimation ,will be used two different kind of information in the Bayes estimation; two different priors have been selected for the parameter of inverted exponential distribution. Also assumed Chi-squared - Gamma distribution, Chi-squared - Erlang distribution, and- Gamma- Erlang distribution as double priors. The results are the derivations of these estimators under the squared error loss function with three different double priors.
Additionally Maximum likelihood estimation method
... Show MoreThe primary toxin class discovered in freshwater pufferfish is a category of neurotoxins called PSTs (Paralytic shellfish toxins) and pufferfish toxin has been observed to have biological, biochemical, and cytotoxic effects on cancer cell lines. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the cytotoxic activity, toxins present in the ovary of T. leiurus, and interaction between ligand (toxin compound) and receptors test. This study used the MTT method in the T47D cell lines, liquid chromatograph-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), and analysis of the molecular interaction using molecular docking. The ovary of T. leiurus had cytotoxicity on the T47D cell, having an IC50 value of 229.535 μg/ml, and generated a chroma
... Show MoreThis competition between competing forces, organized into axes with conflicting objectives, is reflected in all regional affairs and the goals and interests of countries within them, including Iraq. Among the most important aspects impacted by the repercussions of international and regional competition in the region is Iraqi national security, based on its vital importance in preserving the sovereignty and entity of the Iraqi state, protecting the interests and cohesion of the state and people, ensuring and defending their present and future, and interacting with various regional and international activities. The Kurdistan Region, as an important part of Iraq with its own unique characteristics, may be one of the most important regi
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